Focusing on the Senate predicament has been the best way to wake Democrats up to the reality of our losing coalition. After all, Kamala cracked 50% in just 19 states while the GOP can get to 48 Senators from just states where Trump got 55%.1
Well, a scary New York Times analysis has entered the chat with a forecast of the next post-redistricting presidential race in 2032. And population trends are making the presidency look more like the Senate:
The year is 2032. Studying the Electoral College map, a Democratic presidential candidate can no longer plan to sweep New Hampshire, Minnesota and the “blue wall” battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and win the White House. A victory in the swing state of Nevada would not help, either.
That is the nightmare scenario many Democratic Party insiders see playing out if current U.S. population projections hold. After every decennial census, like the one coming up in 2030, congressional seats are reallocated among the states based on population shifts. Those seats in turn affect how big a prize each state is within the Electoral College — or how a candidate actually wins the presidency.
In the next decade, the Electoral College will tilt significantly away from Democrats.
Deeply conservative Texas and Florida could gain a total of five congressional seats, and the red states of Utah and Idaho are each expected to add a seat.
Those gains will come at the expense of major Democratic states like New York and California, according to a New York Times analysis of population projections by Esri, a nonpartisan company whose mapping software and demographic data are widely used by businesses and governments across the world.
Now, does anyone want to talk about 2032 these days?
Hell no. The midterms are a year off, and the House seems to be a permanent toss-up with the 435-seat chamber being decided by just five races for three consecutive elections.
But, with just 896 days until the presidential primary kicks off, Democrats should add a presidential lens to the current Senate disaster. We need all the motivation we can get to transform the party into a majority coalition.
Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota, Mississippi, Louisiana, Utah, Nebraska, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Texas, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska
Yes, something I've been warning of for a long time. This is another reason doubling down on progressivism right now is the opposite direction Dems need to go.
Well, if Vance loses in 2028, Newsom can open the border again just in time for the 2030 census and just like that magically populations will grow where Democrats need to.