994: Middle Against the Majority

Maybe it isn't just the leftists?

There are 994 days left until the first presidential primary in 2028, and the leader of the last successful primary campaign is out today with a provocative new piece:

To understand the forces undermining Democratic success, it’s helpful to think of elected officials in three broad groups:

1. The Far Left: Safe blue-district progressives (the Squad, et al) who face no real general election threat.

2. The (Mostly) Safe Middle: Center-left officials in relatively secure seats, but vulnerable in wave years.

3. The Majority-Makers: Moderates in swing districts who must appeal to a broad electorate to win year in and year out.

While the far left often grabs headlines, the real damage to the party’s brand increasingly comes from the Mostly Safe Middle. Rather than acting as a ballast against ideological excess, the safe middle often amplifies it, creating a perception that the Democratic Party is more extreme than the electorate it needs to win. Equally as troubling, the Mostly Safe Middle remains silent when Majority-Makers and their allies could use support when attacked by the Party’s extremes. Crucially, the Mostly Safe Middle incentives are shaped less by voters and more by the ecosystem itself; the donors, organizations and activist groups, and party influencers who are unrepresentative of the broader electorate.

This misalignment and the incentives it drives are what truly needs to change if Democrats want to build enduring majorities.

Read the full thing here from Greg Schultz, campaign manager of Biden’s 2020 primary victory.

What is the breakdown across these three groups?

Vulnerable, even in a wave year, is only a few dozen districts.

---

Less Unpopular by ‘26?

Split-Ticket is back in The Washington Post:

Democrats might still be unpopular in 2026 but, given Trump’s falling approval ratings and the rising political backlash accompanying it, it seems quite possible that Republicans will be more disliked than them. It’s also important to remember that — similar to 2009 — a significant source of voter unease with the opposition party comes from their own core supporters, who are frustrated with their leaders but unlikely to consider voting for the other side. Case in point, Democrats have already seized the lead on the generic congressional ballot in an average of polls, despite their image woes, and their voters still appear to be turning out in other elections.

Recent history - except 2002 - shows opposition parties often gain favor leading up to midterms, while incumbent parties typically suffer declining support. Midterm success is likely even when both parties held net negative favorability ratings, as seen in 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2022. Read the whole thing from Armin Thomas and Max McCall here.

---

Groups Chat

This is the seventh edition of a daily newsletter for partners who know we need to build a whole lotta stuff for Democrats to consistently win more than deep-blue districts.

There are thousands of skirmishes over the future of the Democratic Party. But parties are defined by presidential nominations more than anything else, and we are 1,000 days from the clearest foreseeable defining point.

If the DNC defaults to the same presidential primary calendar for 2028 that it used last year, South Carolina will go first - likely the first Saturday in February.

That gives us just 1,000 days to put our spades in the ground to shift the path toward more wins. Groups Chat has been going out daily to paid subscribers and partners.

Upgrade or drop us a note to join.

We’ll meet you in the middle, every day just before polls would close in SC (7pm EST).

Over the last week, we’ve covered:

📆 Day 1000: 1,000 Days to South Carolina
Welcome got our start in the 2020 South Carolina primary. Dem winners need to organize before the next one, not just debate.

🧢 Day 999: Let Jared Cook
Jasmine Crockett is polling ahead of Josh Shapiro. Plus, all centrists won’t act the same - and that’s ok.

🇺🇸 Day 998: Avenge AmeriCorps
AOC is the face of the Democratic Party, and the only Democrat under 75 years old to win a Trump +10 seat is getting a primary challenge? Plus, a reflection on Trump’s cuts to AmeriCorps, and the cascading benefits that come from Democrats answering pressing political problems.

📊 Day 997: Today in Primaries
Primary threats are mounting — and most target the nine Democrats in Trumpy districts. And David Hogg’s new PAC is backing … current elected officials in their 40’s?

🏛️ Day 996: No CEO
The new Biden books drive one point home above all others: no one is in charge of the Democratic Party.

🧽 Day 995: Run for What?
How two entrepreneurial groups on the center-left are taking a page from the progressive playbook for supporting candidates.