997: Today in Primaries
"Can't think of a stupider thing for Dems to be doing"
Another day, another story about progressives seeking primary challenges to a Trump-district Democrat.
There are 997 days until the first presidential primary, and the priority for progressives is … challenging MGP?
Only nine Democrats represent districts Trump won by >3%, so two days in a row is a lot!
Five of those nine will be speaking at WelcomeFest, by the way - never too late to share an invite for the June 4th DC gathering with a friend. And always a good time to show your support with a donation to those candidates under fire - link here.
We’ve said enough about David Hogg for a few lifetimes, but one quick note on the first endorsement from his PAC.
The only tangible endorsement requirement for his Leaders We Deserve is age: candidates must be under 35.
Age is literally the headline:
Here’s NPR:
"For every year of Trump's presidency, I think there was a new chapter of a social movement that was born," the 23-year-old gun control activist told NPR, "whether it was the Women's March, March for Our Lives, the environmental movement, or the movement for Black Lives."
Now, as the organizers that cut their teeth on those movements become eligible to run for office, Hogg wants to support their campaigns. He is launching Leaders We Deserve, a hybrid political action committee backing candidates under 35 years old running for federal office and under 30 years old running for state office.
Got it, candidates who haven’t run for office before under age 35.
So how surprised were we to find that Hogg’s first endorsement is a 40 year old sitting state Senator?
Not surprised at all!
Because last cycle, of nearly $12 million raised by the PAC, the only independent expenditures supporting federal Democrats in competitive races was $194,000 for the primary challenger to Rebecca Cooke in WI-03. That challenger was … a 37 year old sitting state legislator!
Two Reads
Lotta attention on this
piece today: I Worked for Joe Biden. I Love Joe Biden. He Must Rethink His Post-Presidency. One fun tidbit in there - only 40 presidents have been elected.1We’ve written a bunch about rural voters, but
at The Rebuild makes the case that the battle for the House is in the suburbs. One particularly interesting data point:Perhaps the most significant advantage for Democrats heading into these midterms lies in the quality of their incumbents. Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metrics from Split Ticket, we can quantify how candidates perform relative to expectations in their districts.
The median WAR of Republican incumbents being targeted by the DCCC stands at -3.4, meaning these Republicans ran an average of 3.4 percentage points worse than a generic Republican would have been expected to perform in their districts. By contrast, Democratic incumbents targeted by the NRCC have a median WAR of +2.85, indicating they outperformed a generic Democrat by nearly three percentage points.
Good candidates, counterproductive progressives who primary them, and much work ahead to win in more places.
Five presidents assumed office without ever being elected to the presidency. John Tyler (1841), Millard Fillmore (1850), Andrew Johnson (1865), and Chester A. Arthur (1881) each ascended from the vice presidency following the death of the sitting president, and never won a presidential election on their own. Plus the two non-consecutive termers (Grover Cleveland, Donald Trump).