Liam good thoughts. I think Osborne's candidacy, being the largest swing away from an incumbent GOP vs the presidency is telling.
I see a need for Welcome to advocate for moderate and conservative Democrats, myself the latter, but I am starting to believe that in Red States the Dem brand is so toxic that they will do better with a third party. That Tester, Manchin, and Brown are gone, leaves no Democrat in a Red state.
The chance to win should be modelled on Osborne. Don't be afraid, indeed consider it a necessity to challenge Dem orthodoxy on immigration, crime, and woke. It is hard to do that and remain in the party as Sinema, Manchin, and maybe in the future Fetterman will find out.
I would support a third party in red states like in Nebraska. Call it the Conservative Democratic Party. There is clearly a majority in this country that ascribe to some basic Dem principles - universal healthcare, care for the environment, more progressive taxation - if they would just lose that lax immigration and crime enforcement, obsession with race and sexuality, and progressive massive spending and deficit spending.
This is such an important question, and one of the biggest obstacles is the lack of an efficient centrist entrepreneurial ecosystem. We ned something similar to what the progressives have (or what education reform has, or electoral reform) - a dense community cutting across philanthropy, talent, etc.
Because the question of third parties or conservative Dem factions is something that requires a ton of resources, and can only get results every two years at the federal level (and then needs to be changed due to the national dynamics).
"...big impediments to cognitive empathy are a grave threat to the planet. And attribution error may be the biggest impediment there is. Obviously, if you’re blind to the way circumstance shapes someone’s behavior, it’s going to be hard to really appreciate how the world looks to them.”
And on a totally different note, I also have saved pieces by Nick Asbury (who writes a lot about purpose-driven advertising) on the topic [and just a great piece]: https://nickasbury.substack.com/p/i-heart-creativity
I, of course, agree with the larger point. But in that Harris over-performed in PA (3% shift from 2020 versus 6% swing nationally) does Casey get any break for ONLY outperforming her by 1.5%?
Yeah very true - GOP primary a big factor here. And didn't find a place for the original attack ad on him after the Kamala switch, which seemed like one of the most devastating of the cycle. Good GOP candidate and fairly well-run (and well-funded) GOP campaign.
Wolfy Jack makes a really good point that doesn't get discussed enough. Weak Republican candidates at the Senate level the past dozen years seem to have masked Democratic weakness across purple states and this tricked many elite Dems that what they were doing was working. Go down the list of GOP losses that granted Dems key seats - Herschel Walker, Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Oz. Even Hassan-Bolduc in 2022 would have been closer with a better GOP candidate.
Ben very true and why I believe the country is more conservative than Dems often think as they have marched Left on the Identarian issues, crime immigration, homelessness they have left the mainstream behind and but not for MAGAs we would be in worse shape
Open to correcting but I count 10 Democrats holding Senate seats in states that voted Trump and Susan Collins the only GOP Senator in states that voted Harris.
Good point. Casey certainly wasn't a disaster in 2024, and had residual goodwill built up ... will be interesting to see Split-Ticket's 2024 Senate Wins Above Replacement estimate for the race.
Liam good thoughts. I think Osborne's candidacy, being the largest swing away from an incumbent GOP vs the presidency is telling.
I see a need for Welcome to advocate for moderate and conservative Democrats, myself the latter, but I am starting to believe that in Red States the Dem brand is so toxic that they will do better with a third party. That Tester, Manchin, and Brown are gone, leaves no Democrat in a Red state.
The chance to win should be modelled on Osborne. Don't be afraid, indeed consider it a necessity to challenge Dem orthodoxy on immigration, crime, and woke. It is hard to do that and remain in the party as Sinema, Manchin, and maybe in the future Fetterman will find out.
I would support a third party in red states like in Nebraska. Call it the Conservative Democratic Party. There is clearly a majority in this country that ascribe to some basic Dem principles - universal healthcare, care for the environment, more progressive taxation - if they would just lose that lax immigration and crime enforcement, obsession with race and sexuality, and progressive massive spending and deficit spending.
This is such an important question, and one of the biggest obstacles is the lack of an efficient centrist entrepreneurial ecosystem. We ned something similar to what the progressives have (or what education reform has, or electoral reform) - a dense community cutting across philanthropy, talent, etc.
Because the question of third parties or conservative Dem factions is something that requires a ton of resources, and can only get results every two years at the federal level (and then needs to be changed due to the national dynamics).
Robert wright of non-zero does an awesome job of distinguishing between emotional empathy and cognitive empathy. I think it’s huge.
Wow this one is really interesting - any particular post you'd recommend?
https://nonzero.substack.com/p/the-radical-power-of-cognitive-empathy
Hmm he writes about it a lot! Even yesterday's post was persuasive on this front (as you get deeper into the article): https://nonzero.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-nonzero-media-empire
I saved this one from 2021, which I think does a good job of laying the groundwork (if I remember correctly!): https://nonzero.substack.com/p/ode-to-a-world-saving-idea-f4b
"...big impediments to cognitive empathy are a grave threat to the planet. And attribution error may be the biggest impediment there is. Obviously, if you’re blind to the way circumstance shapes someone’s behavior, it’s going to be hard to really appreciate how the world looks to them.”
And on a totally different note, I also have saved pieces by Nick Asbury (who writes a lot about purpose-driven advertising) on the topic [and just a great piece]: https://nickasbury.substack.com/p/i-heart-creativity
And if you're really excited by all of that, I also remember liking this one: https://nickasbury.substack.com/p/try-to-see-it-my-way?utm_source=%2Fprofile%2F2476776-nick-asbury&utm_medium=reader2
(are you sorry you asked? LOL)
This is awesome, thank you!! Excited to dive in
oh I'm so glad! I especially enjoyed the I ❤️ NY piece
I, of course, agree with the larger point. But in that Harris over-performed in PA (3% shift from 2020 versus 6% swing nationally) does Casey get any break for ONLY outperforming her by 1.5%?
Yes, and what Casey didn't have was a crazy MAGA to run against like in the past Oz or the current Kari Lake.
Yeah very true - GOP primary a big factor here. And didn't find a place for the original attack ad on him after the Kamala switch, which seemed like one of the most devastating of the cycle. Good GOP candidate and fairly well-run (and well-funded) GOP campaign.
Wolfy Jack makes a really good point that doesn't get discussed enough. Weak Republican candidates at the Senate level the past dozen years seem to have masked Democratic weakness across purple states and this tricked many elite Dems that what they were doing was working. Go down the list of GOP losses that granted Dems key seats - Herschel Walker, Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Oz. Even Hassan-Bolduc in 2022 would have been closer with a better GOP candidate.
Ben very true and why I believe the country is more conservative than Dems often think as they have marched Left on the Identarian issues, crime immigration, homelessness they have left the mainstream behind and but not for MAGAs we would be in worse shape
Certainly eased the glide path to powerlessness.
Absurdity of winning back Senate with current coalition also maybe the clearest motivator for change.
Open to correcting but I count 10 Democrats holding Senate seats in states that voted Trump and Susan Collins the only GOP Senator in states that voted Harris.
Good point. Casey certainly wasn't a disaster in 2024, and had residual goodwill built up ... will be interesting to see Split-Ticket's 2024 Senate Wins Above Replacement estimate for the race.