Casey's Last At-Bat

The 119th Congress begins an era of GOP control, with Democrats unified out of power

Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey was the only Democrat in a competitive race to accept an invitation from Joe Biden to campaign together.

The Pennsylvania incumbent was also the only Democratic Senate candidate to lose in a competitive presidential state. Elissa Slotkin won in Michigan, and Ruben Gallego in Arizona. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected in Wisconsin, as was Jacky Rosen in Nevada. The other losers - Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana - managed to massively outperform Harris in their red states.¹

This is a change from Casey’s last election in 2018, when he ran ahead of Baldwin, Rosen, and Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow. While cruising to a thirteen point win in 2018, Casey earned a higher Wins Above Replacement rating from the election analysts at Split Ticket. Like the Moneyball baseball statistic, that metric captures how much better Casey performed than an average replacement candidate.

What changed to shift Casey from an above replacement to a below replacement Senator?

The Groups v. Casey

Did Casey’s decision to campaign with Biden in Scranton weeks before the election cost Democrats a crucial Senate seat?

Maybe, but in a race so close - Casey lost by just 16,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast - defeat has a thousand potential fathers.

Looking at Casey’s own father may be instructive. The Wikipedia entry for the elder Casey, a two-term governor, begins thusly:

Casey was best known for leading the anti-abortion wing of the Democratic Party, spearheading the opposition against Planned Parenthood v. Casey, a landmark Supreme Court decision on abortion. He championed unions … and supported gun rights.

That was a different time. But like many Democrats, the younger Casey worked to extinguish daylight between his own policy stances and those of the party orthodoxy. On a host of hot-button issues, you can find evolutions like this:

Or on energy policy, a climate advocates welcomed Casey’s evolution:

First elected to the Senate in 2006, Casey’s positioning on climate change has shifted over time. “When Senator Casey was first elected, he was more reticent about wading into some of these climate fights or voting with the environmental community to tackle climate change … I think that’s really evolved a lot.”

The Verdict

Pennsylvania is now represented in the Senate by newly sworn-in Republican Senator Dave McCormick. This is not progress for progressive advocacy groups. He is married to an ExxonMobil board member, and will likely vote more anti-choice justices to the Supreme Court along with the GOP majority, and loosen gun laws.

This is the natural outcome of party infrastructure that demands purity on every issue - and of elected leaders who comply.

As

Matthew Yglesias

described in a recent podcast appearance², starting in Obama’s second term progressives decided to:

… invest in an infrastructure that would essentially police Democrats. That would avoid a recurrence of the situation where you would have 58, 59, 60 senators but not be able to pass sweeping legislation because the Democrats were not uniformly progressive.

This was very successful.

By 2021, Democrats were much more uniformly left-wing than they had been in 2009 and it was possible to pass bills through a 50/50 Senate.

At the same time, it was a 50/50 Senate rather than a 60/40 Senate. And the 50/50 Senate was living on borrowed time.

Time is up. Democrats are united, and out of power.

Growing the tent with empathy

Democrats must be a big-tent party in order to win sustainable governing majorities. That means reaching out to and welcoming in moderate independents and cross-pressured voters - and cross-pressured candidates.

“Empathy” is a word that seems like it should fit squarely in the progressive camp, much like the hallmark liberal values of “fairness” and “caring”.

When it comes to American politics, however, empathy appears to be a distinctly moderate trait. It seems to be an approach held by the allegedly dwindling number of people who haven’t fallen down the rabbit hole of intense partisan and ideological polarization.

Empathy can be defined as “the ability to sense other people’s emotions, coupled with the ability to imagine what someone else might be thinking or feeling.” Practitioners of politics must deploy these skills in order to understand (and persuade) at least two key groups:

1. Those who don’t agree with us on everything

2. Those who aren’t paying close attention

Critics of investment in moderate engagement allege that “The Moderate Middle is a Myth.” But the truth that “all moderate voters are not the same” obscures the fact that those voters are, in the aggregate, more moderate on every issue — and that moderate candidates perform better and are more popular than more ideologically extreme candidates.

Also, beyond the armchair academic schtick, everyone knows normal, non-political people in some capacity in their life (e.g. a neighbor, cousin, coworker, etc.). When in doubt, ask them what they think. And read here for on why empathy, not purity, is a big part of the path forward.

1. According to data from Adam Carlson, Independent Dan Osborn ran 14 points ahead of Harris and Tester ran 13 points ahead. Gallego and Brown ran 8 points ahead, while Colin Allred and Rosen ran 5 points ahead. Slotkin and Tammy Baldwin both ran 1.8 points ahead of Harris in their presidential swing states. Casey performed the worst of any swing state Democrat, running just 1.5 points ahead of Harris.

2. The Ringer acquisition department should take a listen to the Brogressive Pod