This is an opportunity to manifest some big tent energy. “I disagree with Mayor Mamdani about a lot of things, but we’re both Democrats because we’re focused on bringing down the cost of living for regular people. It’s good that New York City and the people of <my geography> don’t have to do the same things.”
Mamdani didn't really "decide to win", he's going to win by default by being the Democratic nominee in a deep blue city.
He's also going to significantly underperform a generic Democrat even though he's facing two fairly weak opponents by a Republican no one cares about and a deeply unpopular, unlikeable, disgraced former governor.
He's been unable to "unite" the existing Democratic coalition and he's seemingly been unable to persuade any voters outside of that coalition.
On top of that, he advocates for bad policies that will likely harm the Democratic brand in the long run, even if he occasionally gives lip service to some decent housing policies.
It would be a miracle for Republicans to win in this election. The populace of the United States is tired of the corruptness that the Republican party supports as well as the mean spiritedness that they show. Most people understand that the current government shutdown is controlled by the Republicans, and they are tired of the lies. Denying people food and healthcare is not ok! Support the constitution, not the party!
Another lesson for centrists: The democratic establishment will not stand up to its own extremists. We need to start being more open to supporting Republicans.
This is self-interested, because I live in L.A., but it would be extremely helpful to have a young, charismatic, reasonable Democrat in California--someone who is not a product of the S.F. machine that produces voter-repelling phonies like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. And they look good compared to the likes of Katie Porter!
I'm assuming that if I think Republicans are going to win the governorship in VA and NJ, I put in negative numbers for questions 3 and 4 on the Welcome pool? Those are my projected raw vote margins of victory for Earle-Sears and Ciaterelli.
I'm surprised that picking the GOP to win these states wasn't a more popular option. The folks at Welcome know as well as anyone that it is impossible to be too pessimistic about the electoral prospects of Democrats. The public standing of our party is worse than you could possibly imagine, even taking into account that it's worse than you could possibly imagine. The national environment right now feels to me like something in the neighborhood of R+5-10.
It looks like Mandami will win in NYC. It’s a good thing. The guy is winning because he is a real person, young, attractive, smart, funny, and charming. He talks in hopeful ways about real issues. He invites EVERYONE to join with him. Even (younger) Jews are supporting him.
Would Mandami win in Wichita? No. He wouldn’t win in NJ or VA, where many more moderates are running on every level.
But, as the Republicans are going to label the Democrats as Communists, the Democrats should have no difficulty labeling all Republicans as Nazis. Tucker Carlson embraced Nazis and the Heritage Society, and J.D. Vance jumped in with support.
Also, why are we allowing Trump to give $$$ to Argentina and not SNAP?
Inflation is higher, Trump is still Puitin’s puppy, women still get limited healthcare, the rich are partying like 1928, while 80% of the country is worried about their future.
The Democrats have to follow Manama and run people who connect with their community. Follow the lead of Robert Hubbell and Robert Reich and get beyond doing what the rich donor class is looking for, which is what the Republicans were in 1990. We need people who understand the 21st century!
The difference is that there's plenty of principles Republicans like Ted Cruz and Ben Shapiro who are standing up to the Carlson/Fuentes extremist wing of their party. I'm not seeing any mainstream Democrats showing that kind of integrity against their own extremists.
Speak the truth, don't ignore it. There is an argument that the right often goes after every Dem with those unpopular policies of further left Dems. That is true, they all nut pick. But the lesson is not to ignore those policies but to separate yourself from them,.
Democrats run their offense with social security preservation, ACA, abortion rights - fine that works.
Where they fail is defense. If you look at what Trump ran on "record illegal immigration" "they/them" "transgender surgery for prisoners" "record inflation" it is not enough to avoid those albatrosses, but requires active distancing from them. Did Harris ever suggest that taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners was a dumb idea- no, then she bought it. How about record illegal immigration when they were letting in record numbers of asylum claimants just for uttering the words "I claim asylum". Then they totally reversed this policy in June 2024 when the politics was obviously a disaster, but, again, refused to pushback against the Dem notion on the further left that illegal immigration is OK.
We need a politician like Bill Clinton who was not afraid to push back against
This is an opportunity to manifest some big tent energy. “I disagree with Mayor Mamdani about a lot of things, but we’re both Democrats because we’re focused on bringing down the cost of living for regular people. It’s good that New York City and the people of <my geography> don’t have to do the same things.”
Mamdani didn't really "decide to win", he's going to win by default by being the Democratic nominee in a deep blue city.
He's also going to significantly underperform a generic Democrat even though he's facing two fairly weak opponents by a Republican no one cares about and a deeply unpopular, unlikeable, disgraced former governor.
He's been unable to "unite" the existing Democratic coalition and he's seemingly been unable to persuade any voters outside of that coalition.
On top of that, he advocates for bad policies that will likely harm the Democratic brand in the long run, even if he occasionally gives lip service to some decent housing policies.
It would be a miracle for Republicans to win in this election. The populace of the United States is tired of the corruptness that the Republican party supports as well as the mean spiritedness that they show. Most people understand that the current government shutdown is controlled by the Republicans, and they are tired of the lies. Denying people food and healthcare is not ok! Support the constitution, not the party!
Another lesson for centrists: The democratic establishment will not stand up to its own extremists. We need to start being more open to supporting Republicans.
This is self-interested, because I live in L.A., but it would be extremely helpful to have a young, charismatic, reasonable Democrat in California--someone who is not a product of the S.F. machine that produces voter-repelling phonies like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. And they look good compared to the likes of Katie Porter!
I'm assuming that if I think Republicans are going to win the governorship in VA and NJ, I put in negative numbers for questions 3 and 4 on the Welcome pool? Those are my projected raw vote margins of victory for Earle-Sears and Ciaterelli.
I'm surprised that picking the GOP to win these states wasn't a more popular option. The folks at Welcome know as well as anyone that it is impossible to be too pessimistic about the electoral prospects of Democrats. The public standing of our party is worse than you could possibly imagine, even taking into account that it's worse than you could possibly imagine. The national environment right now feels to me like something in the neighborhood of R+5-10.
It looks like Mandami will win in NYC. It’s a good thing. The guy is winning because he is a real person, young, attractive, smart, funny, and charming. He talks in hopeful ways about real issues. He invites EVERYONE to join with him. Even (younger) Jews are supporting him.
Would Mandami win in Wichita? No. He wouldn’t win in NJ or VA, where many more moderates are running on every level.
But, as the Republicans are going to label the Democrats as Communists, the Democrats should have no difficulty labeling all Republicans as Nazis. Tucker Carlson embraced Nazis and the Heritage Society, and J.D. Vance jumped in with support.
Also, why are we allowing Trump to give $$$ to Argentina and not SNAP?
Inflation is higher, Trump is still Puitin’s puppy, women still get limited healthcare, the rich are partying like 1928, while 80% of the country is worried about their future.
The Democrats have to follow Manama and run people who connect with their community. Follow the lead of Robert Hubbell and Robert Reich and get beyond doing what the rich donor class is looking for, which is what the Republicans were in 1990. We need people who understand the 21st century!
The difference is that there's plenty of principles Republicans like Ted Cruz and Ben Shapiro who are standing up to the Carlson/Fuentes extremist wing of their party. I'm not seeing any mainstream Democrats showing that kind of integrity against their own extremists.
"So what should centrists do?"
Speak the truth, don't ignore it. There is an argument that the right often goes after every Dem with those unpopular policies of further left Dems. That is true, they all nut pick. But the lesson is not to ignore those policies but to separate yourself from them,.
Democrats run their offense with social security preservation, ACA, abortion rights - fine that works.
Where they fail is defense. If you look at what Trump ran on "record illegal immigration" "they/them" "transgender surgery for prisoners" "record inflation" it is not enough to avoid those albatrosses, but requires active distancing from them. Did Harris ever suggest that taxpayer funded transgender surgery for prisoners was a dumb idea- no, then she bought it. How about record illegal immigration when they were letting in record numbers of asylum claimants just for uttering the words "I claim asylum". Then they totally reversed this policy in June 2024 when the politics was obviously a disaster, but, again, refused to pushback against the Dem notion on the further left that illegal immigration is OK.
We need a politician like Bill Clinton who was not afraid to push back against