Responding to the Mamdani Shift
Three lessons, two myths, one warning - and join the office pool!
Part II of Deciding to Win is The Electorate.
Like the World Series, elections have a binary outcome.
Each pitch, substitution, and shift changes the likelihood of winning in equal measure for each team. Some things you can control. Others you must react to.
Which brings us to Zohran Mamdani.
One year out from the midterms, do we want to be writing about the socialist about to become mayor of America’s largest city? No!
But I also don’t like intentional walks or aggressive infield shifts, and this is where we are. Winning back the House requires dealing with it, as evidenced by a recent memo from the campaign arm of House Republicans:
Angry Mods, Awkward Establishment
While we’re here, we should be productive about it.
The 19 weeks since the NYC primary have been dominated by Mamdani. The progressive left sees validation, while the GOP sees confirmation of electoral opportunity.
Meanwhile, many moderates are angry and much of the establishment has been downright awkward. Centrists must channel energy into being productive, like forcing a confrontation with the DSA agenda.
We don’t have the luxury to just be angry and awkward. Centrists must apply relevant lessons, build our own community. And yes, dispel myths & issue warnings on the national implications.
So here goes: three lessons, two myths, and one warning.
Lesson 1: Prioritize
Mamdani chose one big issue, the cost of living, and built everything around it. He didn’t run on a 20-point manifesto; he picked a fight that felt real to working families. People remember “halalflation” more than “democratic socialism.”
Lesson 2: Position
After the primary, Mamdani learned to pivot off toxic positions on policing and extreme rhetoric that plays on Twitter but bombs with voters. AOC and Sanders reportedly coached him on how to break with the left without losing it. In 2016, Hillary Clinton did not pivot to the center after the primary. Same with Biden. Mamdani did, even if he started well to the left of them.
Did Mamdani sell out the left? No, but he did decide to win by removing obstacles.
Lesson 3: Community
The real strength behind Mamdani isn’t his campaign. It’s the ecosystem. Groups like the Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party, and a web of progressive, social justice, and issue-based organizations coordinated their efforts to lift whoever emerged as their frontrunner. That kind of entrepreneurial, mutually reinforcing network is exactly what the center still lacks. Centrists need a similar machine, one that doesn’t wait for candidates to appear but actively produces them.
Myth 1: NYC Electorate Translates Nationally
Myth 2: Socialism is Popular
About 6 in 10 voters in June’s NYC Democratic primary identify as liberal.
Here are the toplines from Part II of Deciding to Win, on The Electorate:
A supermajority of Americans (71%, per Gallup) identify as moderate or conservative, including majorities of swing voters, nonvoters, working-class voters, and minority voters
Most voters are white, most voters are non-college-educated, and most voters are over the age of 50.
On a number of philosophical questions, including on taxation, regulation, the role of government, and immigration, majorities of voters hold moderate or conservative views.
Most voters have favorable views of institutions and ideals such as the police, the military, capitalism, small businesses, and America, and unfavorable views of socialism.
Working-class voters are more conservative than college-educated voters on both social issues and economic issues.
Does this travel nationally? In a head-to-head, Mamdani is polling 20+ points ahead with that group and 20+ points behind with non-college voters. The socialist ceiling is real, and the dynamics here mirror those nationally.
Eastman Warning
As my colleague
noted in the Wall Street Journal this morning, the national implications could be dire.The NRCC memo on “weaponizing Mamdani” echoes one of the earliest WelcomeStack posts four years ago: The Other Eastman Memo, the sad tale of Republicans successfully beating a “Brooklyn-style campaign” in a Democratic-leaning district.
The Omaha-based NE-02 district was comfortably won by Joe Biden in 2020, then won comfortably by Harris in 2024. But it has been represented all the while by a Republican. Why? Centrists did not fight the NYC-DSA playbook hard enough.
The NRCC is already showing they’ll do it again.
So what should centrists do?
Anger wastes clarity. Awkwardness wastes energy. Neither builds anything.
And building community is a great way to counteract - or channel - those negative emotions.
The Mamdani story is more than a threat to swing districts. It’s a reminder that movements that organize beat those that agonize.
Speaking of organizations … the Welcome team has a friendly office pool going on what the election results will be in NYC, VA, and NJ. Play along here to compete for a fun prize.
PS Our first video got more than 26,000 views and brought in new supporters over the last week, so we did another one on these lessons. Check it out, and subscribe to our YouTube channel for upcoming candidate content.
This is an opportunity to manifest some big tent energy. “I disagree with Mayor Mamdani about a lot of things, but we’re both Democrats because we’re focused on bringing down the cost of living for regular people. It’s good that New York City and the people of <my geography> don’t have to do the same things.”
Mamdani didn't really "decide to win", he's going to win by default by being the Democratic nominee in a deep blue city.
He's also going to significantly underperform a generic Democrat even though he's facing two fairly weak opponents by a Republican no one cares about and a deeply unpopular, unlikeable, disgraced former governor.
He's been unable to "unite" the existing Democratic coalition and he's seemingly been unable to persuade any voters outside of that coalition.
On top of that, he advocates for bad policies that will likely harm the Democratic brand in the long run, even if he occasionally gives lip service to some decent housing policies.