Centrist Spine

Extremists are counting on GOP moderates to fold. The pessimism is warranted, but the fight is worth it.

Extremists are counting on GOP moderates to fold. NBC reported a GOP aide is confident Jim Jordan will become Speaker because “The people opposing him are moderates. Either he gets it or the moderates for the first time ever grow a spine.”

By Monday, Jordan had started getting holdouts. First, Mike Rogers. Then Ann Wagner caused the St. Louis Post-Dispatch to headline: “Rep. Wagner summons the courage to … oh, wait, never mind.”

We don’t know what will happen yet, but pessimism is warranted. As Matt Yglesias noted: “any time you have a chance to bet on ‘moderate Republicans cave for no reason’ you should take it.” 

Speaking of Yglesias, Join our Zoom conversation with Matt Yglesias tomorrow at 12pm ET - Register HERE

We’ll be talking polarization (overhyped), popularism (under-organized), and centrist entrepreneurship. Although don’t be surprised if the Speaker fight comes up.

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Flipping Five

WelcomePAC launched the Flip Five campaign one week ago (overview here), with simple arithmetic showing the way to a bipartisan governing coalition: it only takes five Republicans to join with Democrats for a bipartisan governing majority.

Which is something that polls show Americans want. Our poll with YouGov, seen first in Semafor, showed 63 percent in favor, including 63 percent of independents. 

We need more headlines like this one:

A poll out today on Rep. Don Bacon’s Nebraska district asked whether voters wanted him to work only with Republicans to elect a speaker, or whether he should cross party lines with moderate Democrats to create a bipartisan governing coalition. Again, 63 percent wanted bipartisanship. Just 31 percent wanted Bacon throwing in only with Republicans. Voters were far more likely to vote for Bacon after a bipartisan deal – but his re-election is in big trouble if he goes the other way. 

WelcomePAC also launched digital ads encouraging swing voters in Biden districts to tell their problem-solving GOP representatives they want bipartisanship. Because these split-ticket voters need to hear the message, and so does the media – we need all the “Rep. Mike Lawler pressed to seek bipartisan solution to Republican Speaker logjam” headlines in New York papers we can get. You can chip in to that effort here.

House Democrats’ PAC also started sending their own outreach to voters on Monday, targeting 11 vulnerable Republicans with robocalls in 11 districts across Arizona, Michigan, and New York. Voters hear about Jordan’s role in Jan. 6, his harsh anti-abortion policies, cuts to veterans’ benefits and are asked to urge their representative to vote against Jordan.

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Learning Leverage

We are big on learning from the Far Left, and the speaker fight is a good time to learn from the Far Right as well. We put that study to use in The Bulwark last week: Time for House GOP Moderates to Use Their Leverage: Can they pull a Gaetz?

MATT GAETZ NEEDED JUST FOUR colleagues to go from a back-bencher under an ethics investigation to deposing a speaker for the first time in history. He got eight votes, well more than needed.

But that majority math works in both directions: Any individual moderate Republican can do the same thing Gaetz did, taking control of the speakership selection process with just a tiny band of allies. There are precedents at the state level—what we might call laboratories of centrism in legislatures around the country. If lawmakers in Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and New York can figure it out, why not members of Congress?

Let’s go back to Don Bacon, who whipped votes for the Problem Solvers Caucus. How does he win Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District while Biden is beating Trump by 7 points among the same voters? He runs as a bipartisan problem solver. He gets endorsed by his Democratic predecessor. Last week, Bacon gave a local TV news interview that the station literally titled “Rep. Don Bacon encourages bipartisanship after McCarthy ouster.”

And now, as the House inches toward picking its new speaker, Bacon could exercise powerful leverage over those Republicans who, he charges, “don’t respect” the House. He would need only four additional votes to stall the process of picking a new speaker as Gaetz did—but for constructive purposes. Bacon would have a willing partner: Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could not be clearer in seeking a bipartisan governing coalition. By publicly opening negotiations with Jeffries, Bacon would have leverage over Scalise to strengthen the moderate wing of the GOP—or else his Party of Five can form a bipartisan governing coalition with Democrats.

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Always Campaign Season For Team Extreme

Team Extreme is applying all sorts of pressure to get moderates to save Speaker Jim Jordan. They’re running a campaign – more like a national campaign than a traditional insider battle. Jim Jordan even has a campaign-style video promoted by colleagues with the tagline of the ultimate national campaign trope: the speaker fight is “one of the most important races in our lifetime”.

Some on the left may think this helps – Axios quoted a Democratic operative predicting a 30-seat pickup. But, as Bill Kristol pointed out, recent polling shows voters trust Congressional Republicans more than Joe Biden

Our view is that this is not a win for hyper-partisans; it is an opportunity to reach out into the middle and bring people in, as we told the The Washington Examiner:

"The chaos is not an electoral slam dunk for Democrats,” Welcome PAC co-founder Liam Kerr said. … “They also need to be welcoming. They also need to be reaching out and bringing people in and making it clear that the far left caricature of some in the party does not distort the voters' in the middle perception of the party overall."

For him, “running a PAC pushing Republicans and independents to vote for centrist Democratic candidates, "it gives us a tactical opportunity to engage pragmatic Republicans and say, 'We know you don't want this, and there's actually something you can do about it.'”

Even if centrists lose this fight, it’s a fight worth fighting.

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“Awesome” Opportunity for Centrist Insurgents

Extremists understand asymmetrical warfare – and seem to have fun doing it. House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry thinks it is “awesome” that his moderate colleagues are upset. 

But Perry himself is vulnerable - an opportunity to apply leverage covered here last month.

The Republicans Against Perry campaign today, as seen in PennLive:

Sensing that GOP U.S. Rep. Scott Perry could be vulnerable in next year’s election, a group called Republicans Against Perry is launching an opposition movement for the 2024 10th Congressional District race.

“He is a square peg that doesn’t fit in the round hole of that district, and I think this is the year coming up when that gets proven,” said Craig Snyder, a longtime Republican operative from Pennsylvania who will lead the anti-Perry group after successfully guiding Republicans For Shapiro last year.

Snyder, a former chief of staff to the late moderate Republican U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, told PennLive that WelcomePAC, a national, centrist Democratic political-action committee, is backing Republicans Against Perry.

As we’ve learned in Centrist School, such conflicts are like a muscle, not a battery – they make us stronger, they don’t drain us.

Let’s keep going, whatever happens in the Speaker vote today.

And remember to join us at noon ET tomorrow Wednesday October 18 with Matt Yglesias for our first Centrist School Office Hours - register HERE.