Congressional Competition Index Q3: The Ever-Changing House Battlefield
Republicans tried to shrink the battlefield with aggressive gerrymandering, but the 2025 elections suggest these gerrymanders might not hold up
We are less than a year out from the 2026 midterms, and less than four months out from the first primaries. This cycle, the map has changed dramatically from quarter to quarter as states engage in unique mid-decade gerrymanders.
Our friends at Welcome Democracy Institute just came out with their quarterly Congressional Competition Index. The Q3 report tracks how redistricting, fundraising, and demographic changes are reshaping and redefining competition across the country.
The big finding: although Republicans started the new gerrymandering war, Democrats are close to fighting to a draw. The result is bad for democracy, but it means that the maps for the 2026 midterm election will likely be fairer than initially thought.
The Big Picture On Competition
The big takeaway from the report is that competition is increasing, but not necessarily in an efficient or strategic way. Redistricting is slowing competition as parties, candidates, and donors wait for final maps before contesting races.
Competition is growing, but it is still inefficient:
17 districts are now “fully” competitive (up from 7 last quarter). A fully competitive district means that both parties are expending enough resources to run a campaign.
3 of these may be impacted by redistricting.
32 districts are on pace to be competitive in the next quarter, meaning that both parties will field competitive candidates if current fundraising trends hold.
18 of these seats may be impacted by redistricting.
26 seats that should be competitive are essentially being conceded at the moment, meaning that one party does not have a candidate who is raising enough to make the race competitive.
Some of the districts that are not “fully” competed may be due to candidates entering the race later in the quarter or coming up just short of the benchmarks, and will move into the competed category in future quarters.
Parties are in parity, but Democratic candidates have a slight edge:
The DCCC and NRCC remain fairly close in fundraising, with just thousands of dollars separating them.
Democratic candidates, however, have a slight advantage in small dollar enthusiasm and overall fundraising.
Primaries are draining critical resources:
Millions are being spent in Democratic primaries like NY-17 and NJ-07 that could collectively fund entire campaigns in other districts.
For example, $2 million from the NY-17 primary could help Jamie Ager in his competitive North Carolina district a lot more than a third place primary finish.
More competition is good, but misplaced competition is not.
The Gerrymandering Wild Card
This is the most volatile midterm redistricting cycle in modern history. Up to 12 states, representing nearly half of all congressional districts, may redraw their maps before 2026.
The volatility started when Trump successfully urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s map to take advantage of shifts in the Hispanic vote. Governor Gavin Newsom of California responded with a ballot initiative that would allow a one-time gerrymander in response. A flurry of other states then completed or are in the process of completing their own gerrymanders.
Republicans have seen gains in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio, where changes to the maps could net them 7-9 additional seats (this number may drop following a judge’s ruling that orders Texas to use their original lines. An appeal is expected). Ohio underwent a state constitutionally mandated redraw, while the other three are explicitly political.
Democrats have seen gains in California following the passage of Proposition 50, which will likely add 4-5 blue seats across the state. Utah underwent a court mandated redraw, which created a new Salt Lake City anchored seat that is almost certain to be Democratic (support Ben McAdams here!). Maryland is also considering redrawing its maps to pick up the Eastern Shore seat currently held by Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris.
The two big outstanding states are Florida and Virginia. Florida’s House Speaker has downplayed the idea of new maps, but if pressured, the state legislature could add anywhere from 2-5 Republican leaning seats. Virginia was a bit of a surprise and is going through a process that may result in 2-3 more Democratic leaning seats.
Every redraw, whether partisan or court-ordered, shrinks the number of truly competitive seats. Safe districts multiply. Independent voters matter in fewer places. And the national House outcome becomes even more dependent on 20–30 districts that could swing either way.
The Latino Vote Shift And South Texas
The Latino vote remains one of the most fluid and consequential forces going into 2026. And in Texas, early signs suggest the GOP’s South Texas strategy may be unraveling.
In Texas, the Republican controlled legislature made a bet that their inroads with Latinos would continue to grow through 2026 and beyond by drawing majority Latino districts in South Texas that appeared to be likely red seats. Those efforts were expected to net Republicans 5 seats. We’re now seeing signs that this “dummymander” may be blowing up in the GOP’s face.
Exit polls from last week’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia and recent polling from Texas show some bright spots for Democrats:
Latino support for Trump in Texas peaked in 2024, but recent polling reveals that support has waned since he took office for a second time. Latino support for the president declined to 30% in August, with a slight uptick to 34% in October, according to the Texas Politics Project.
That sound you hear is the collective gulp coming from Republicans in Austin. These shifts not only help lift continually overperforming incumbents Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, but two of the new “red” seats may also be coming onto the board.
Texas’s 15th1 is located in South Texas, running from Hidalgo County along the border up towards the San Antonio area. The district has swung wildly the last three presidential elections, going from Clinton +14 to Trump +2 to Trump +18. This incredible swing is partly due to the fact that the district is 81% Latino. This district could very well swing back if Trump’s favorables continue to drop like they have been. It also helps that there is a star Democrat running in Bobby Pulido. Bobby is a Tejano music star who knows his community and is not afraid to put South Texas above party loyalty.
A Volatile Map That Is Still Taking Shape
The Q3 CCI report makes one thing clear: the 2026 House battlefield is still being built in real time. Mid-decade redraws are reshaping districts, key voter blocs are shifting again, and early 2025 results show that neither party can rely on the coalitions that came out of 2024.
Republicans attempted to gain ground through an unprecedented redistricting push, but signs of a “Texas Dummymander” are starting to show. Democrats saw encouraging statewide results earlier this month that provided a path to victory for candidates in purple House seats, and will need to build on that momentum over the next 12 months.
With as many as 12 states redrawing their lines and diluting competition, the final battlefield won’t emerge until early next year. That is what the CCI attempts to show: where competition is real, where it is missing, and where the opportunities are.
These numbers are based on the map that was blocked by a judge earlier this week, but both versions of Texas 15 have similar numbers.