Congressional Competitiveness Index: Q2 Findings

The Congressional Competitiveness Index (CCI) is back for a second round following the release of the Q2 FEC reports.

The Congressional Competitiveness Index (CCI) is back for a second round following the release of the Q2 FEC reports, and a lot has happened since our last quarterly release. As the election cycle has heated up, parties are contesting more and more districts, resulting in far fewer democracy deserts. With Republicans favored to win the Senate, a Democratic controlled House will be Harris' only ally, or the only check on a Trump Presidency. Democrats need to go on offense in as many places as possible to win seats and flip the House.

The most important updates are in Wisconsin, where Democrats have successfully fielded candidates in Wisconsin’s 1st (Paul Ryan’s old district) and Wisconsin’s 8th (where Mike Gallagher is retiring). In WI-01, Democrats have former Rep. Peter Barca running to take on Rep. Bryan Steil. Barca, a former United States Representative who represented WI-01 for one term, currently serves in Governor Evers administration. Barca’s fundraising capacity and the relationships he’s cultivated throughout his career will benefit him as he contests this R+3 district. Already, he has raised more than $917,000.

In WI-08, Democrat Kristin Lyerly has raised more than $1 million in the now vacant seat following Mike Gallagher’s resignation in April. She’ll be facing Trump-backed Republican Tony Weid, who has raised less than she has ($859k) with only $228k cash-on-hand. 

Another welcome update is that Democrats now have a candidate in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, where Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez will face off against extremist Rep. Eli Crane. Crane voted to remove McCarthy and has consistently denied the results of the 2020 election making him likely too extreme for this R+6 district.

Across the 100 districts that should be contested, Democrats have raised $268 million and Republicans have raised $204 million. 

In the most competitive 45 districts where both parties have fielded credible candidates, Democrats have raised $151 million, while Republicans have raised $146 million. Democrats have a cash on hand advantage of $96 million to Republicans’ $83 million. (Help us make the gap bigger here!)

In Pennsylvania's 10th, Democrats have a star recruit in Janelle Stelson, whose past career as a news anchor has given her a deep relationship with voters in this R+5 district. Stelson has raised $1.9 million and has $1.1 million on hand. Incumbent Scott Perry, dogged with a federal probe over his role in the January 6th insurrection, is trailing her in cash on hand with $789,000, due in large part to his accumulating legal fees.

A number of seats have gone from uncontested to having serious candidates. Several Florida districts now have Democrats who have fielded candidates, though fundraising is lacking. In Florida’s 3rd, Kat Cammack will face Tom Wells, who has raised around $12,000. In Florida’s 4th congressional district, Aaron Bean will face Lashonda Holloway, who has raised $15,000. In Florida's 26th, Mario Diaz-Balart now faces Joey Atkins, who has raised $36,000. And extremist Anna Paulina Luna in FL-13 will face bipartisan problem solver Whitney Fox. 

In Tennessee, Andy Ogles, a far-right Freedom Caucus member, now faces Democrat Maryam Abolfazli, who has raised $174,000. Ogles was recently raided by the FBI as part of an ongoing probe into potential campaign finance violations. 

Help us flip the House blue in November via our Win the Middle slate. To see how we think about endorsements, read our piece introducing the Win the Middle slate here.