You get bombarded with emails, texts, mail, calls, and digital ads. Stop scrolling! Chip in a dollar!
But 95 cents of that dollar may go back to Facebook, the fundraising firm, and their texting subcontractor. And the nickel that makes it to a campaign? Often siphoned off each cycle to candidates who don’t have a chance at winning, and your holiday generosity simply becomes Q4 wastefulness.
We believe there’s a better way. Unsubscribe from the emails, Stop2End the texts.
We’ve gotta ask ourselves what our priorities are – the high you get after rage donating, or finding the candidates who actually win over voters in the middle and defeat an authoritarian GOP?
Our bank of case studies has identified how candidates win over voters in the middle. Now, we’re presenting investment opportunities so you can help a “Win the Middle" slate, guiding your dollars to the majority makers – moderate candidates often overlooked by both donors and party organizations.
Here’s where to invest, in three buckets:
Pragmatic Incumbents Who Beat Extremists in 2022: Mary Peltola, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Jared Golden
These incumbents are among the most endangered, and valuable, members of the Democratic caucus. They’re beating back extremists and holding together the Democratic majority. In Washington’s 3rd, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez looks to win re-election in this Trump +4 district. The MAGA, election-denying extremist she bested last time, Joe Kent, is back again, is the GOP fundraising leader, and has the support of the state GOP.
In Alaska, Mary Peltola is looking to hold her Trump +10 seat after beating Tea Party celebrity Sarah Palin last year. This time, Republicans have made unseating her a top priority and recruited their current Republican lieutenant governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, and recidivist candidate Nick Begich, who bills himself as a “commonsense leader,” but promotes the theory that a University of Alaska research facility traffics in “mind control.” In Maine’s 2nd district, Jared Golden is looking to again hold this rural red district that voted for Trump by 6 points. Republicans have recruited NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.
Under-The-Radar Flips With Extreme Incumbents: Adam Frisch, Janelle Bynum, Will Rollins, PA-10 Nominee, WI-03 Nominee
These are the races that the parties failed to contest in 2022 (see our Blue Friday piece), but are winnable. Adam Frisch is back, ready to finish what he started when he came a few hundred votes from winning in a “Safe Republican'' district, Colorado’s 3rd. Since the last race, incumbent Lauren Boebert has only exacerbated the embarrassment that Colorado residents feel about having her as representative. Will Rollins is ready to finish the job in California 41st. Though parties spent nothing on this surprisingly close race in 2022, it’s now seen as one of the most flippable races in the country.
In Oregon's 5th, Janelle Bynum is seeking the nomination to take on Lori Chavez-DeRemer in this Biden +9 district. Despite the district’s Biden lean, a Far Left challenger knocked off a moderate incumbent in the primary and handed the seat to a Republican in 2022. With a more pragmatic nominee in Bynum, this district is winnable. But first, she has to beat the Far Left challenger who blew it last time - and in the process, boost Democrats chances of flipping the seat more than any general election contribution ever could.
In two races, we included a fund for the eventual nominee. Your donation will go to the Democrats who will take on incumbents Derrick Van Orden and Scott Perry in 2024. MAGA Republican Van Orden hasn’t done anything to dispel voter concerns about him since taking office (Trump +5). He’s twice been accused of disorderly and inappropriate conduct in the House, including booze- and expletive-filled parties in his office. Meanwhile, Scott Perry – an alumnus of Pennsylvania’s “Accelerated Rehabilitative Disposition” program for first-time nonviolent offenders – has been a cheerleader for the government shutdowns and new texts reveal he was an active participant in the plot to overturn the 2020 election. Democrats have a path to victory in the district that Trump won by 4 in 2020 but Shapiro carried by 15 points in his 2022 Gubernatorial run. Check out recent articles in The Daily Beast, PennLive, and the Philadelphia Inquirer on our Republicans Against Perry initiative, which deploys the same cross-partisan effectiveness that drove Democrats to victory - and shocked analysts - in 2022.
Institutions That Win Hard Races: Blue Dog PAC, Shield PAC, New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, WelcomePAC
In addition, part of our mission is to encourage investment in a Center Left ecosystem. We recommend supporting the PACs that nurture and defend moderate leaders. Blue Dog PAC supports Democrats who can win tough seats, like Peltola, Perez, and Golden. The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, the PAC arm of the 100-member New Democratic Caucus, includes most majority makers. And Third Way’s Shield PAC defends the most at-risk incumbents from attacks tying Democrats to the Far Left.
Our Track Record
WelcomePAC launched midway through the 2022 cycle, and identified 21 undervalued districts. While just four of those districts missed by the market received enough support to be credible, the market changed - three of those four are now rated as toss-ups.
We focused on two districts last cycle: California’s 41st and Colorado’s 3rd. Neither district saw a cent in party spending, but we saw the opportunity: MAGA incumbents and charismatic, moderate Democratic challengers.
Now, the pundits have woken up: Both Colorado's 3rd and California’s 41st are rated by the ratings agencies as top pick-up opportunities for Democrats, and Punchbowl recently declared CA-41 one of the top 5 majority makers.
Time to Win the Middle
Let’s make a resolution for 2024 – and every year after that – to Win The Middle.