Congressional Competitiveness Index: Post-Election Update

Both parties spent more efficiently in 2024, but they are still leaving districts uncontested

This cycle, both parties did a better job of contesting a broad range of districts and of reducing the amount of money wasted on entirely uncompetitive districts (think Marjorie Taylor Greene for Democrats, AOC for Republicans).

However, there were a few districts that stood out to us that could have been competitive but no money was spent. These districts may not have been won by the challenging party this election, but over the next few cycles they could hold the keys to a House majority.

As we analyze these districts, it’s important to keep in mind that Trump won the popular vote in the 2024 election after losing it by four points in 2020. A district Trump won by 5 points this cycle could see an electoral tie in the next presidential election cycle, and in a midterm environment the range of possibilities is even broader.

In this update, we’re analyzing only the 100 seats from our Congressional Competitiveness Index (CCI) that had an effective score of 4 (from D+6 to R+6), and the seats where we have full presidential data from this past cycle.

Note: Throughout this post, we round to the thousandth dollar for ease of reading.

Republican-held

These are the three GOP-held seats where the incumbent got less than 58% of the vote where Democrats spent the least amount of money. With investment, these districts could become races to watch in future cycles. All three of these were included in HMP’s recent "2026 Recruitment Fund" memo.

FL-04 (PVI: R+6, Presidential Margin: Trump+11.8) Aaron Bean’s district is one that could become competitive if Democrats begin to improve in Florida. Democrats raised only $32,000 to take him on, and held Bean to 57.3% of the vote.

OH-10 (PVI: R+4, Presidential Margin: Trump+5.7) Mike Turner’s district is red, but it’s a district that Trump won by only 5.7 points. Democrats raised only $205,000 to Turner’s $1.3 million. He won 57.6% of the vote, suggesting that this is likely the ceiling for this district.

VA-01 (PVI: R+6, Presidential Margin: Trump+4.9) Trump won this district by 4.9 points, which was one of the few districts to swing left in 2024 (Trump won by 6.2 in 2020). Democratic challenger Leslie Mehta ran 7.9 points behind Harris in the district, managing to get 43.6% while raising $721k and not gaining much outside attention.

Democratic-held

These are the three Democratic-held seats where the incumbent got less than 59% of the vote where Republicans spent the least. With investment, these districts could become races to watch in future cycles.

FL-23 (PVI: D+5, Presidential Margin: Trump-1.9) Jared Moskowitz, who was rumored to be in consideration for a position in the Trump administration, ended up in a closer race than many expected. Harris won the district by just under 2 points, and Moskowitz — a moderate House Democrat — was able to run ahead of her in the district (he won by 4.8). He was bolstered by the lack of Republican fundraising, as the top Republican nominee raised just $167,000.

MA-09 (PVI: D+6, Presidential Margin: Trump-10.7) This district is the only vaguely competitive congressional district in Massachusetts, and it did not see a Republican challenger — the candidate on the ballot reported raising no money. Still, Keating won 56.4% of the vote, suggesting that this could be a district that sees competition in the future.

RI-02 (PVI: D+4, Presidential Margin: Trump-6.5) Republicans made a serious attempt at Rhode Island’s 2nd last cycle with moderate mayor Allan Fung. Without him on the ticket, Seth Magaziner easily won against a challenger who raised a paltry $6,000.

Conclusion

Parties are contesting more districts and increasing the efficiency of their spending. However, there are still a number of districts on the bounds of competition where little or money is being spent. The party that brings these districts into competition first will gain a significant advantage in an era of narrowly divided House control.

Stay tuned for more analysis to come next month in our final update for the 2024 cycle.

Dan Conway is the Director of Research & Analysis for Welcome Democracy Institute.

You can view all of our reports on our c3 website, The Welcome Democracy Institute.