Crossing the line
Rep. Cory Mills and Medicaid cuts show how to beat MAGA
In the immediate aftermath of the 2024 election, it felt like the country had permanently shifted right. Elections have a funny way of doing that to the nation’s psyche. Even though elections are decided by just a few million voters, the narrative is that Harris winning 48% of the vote proves MAGA is ascendant, whereas winning 50% would have the media declaring the end of the GOP.
Recent polling shows that Trump has quickly spoiled his mandate and the public has soured on him. Team Normal can beat Trump by emphasizing the unpopular aspects of his agenda and his dangerous ties to Dark MAGA extremism.
Medicaid cuts risk realignment
Those who were glued to politics in Trump’s first term will recall that his favorability began to dive during the Affordable Care Act repeal effort (the effort also increased favorability towards the ACA).
Recently, Trump’s own pollster found that extending tax credits for health insurance (the ACA) was more popular than extending Trump’s tax cuts. This week, Republicans passed a budget blueprint that includes an estimated $800 billion in Medicaid cuts.
While some commentators have suggested that Trump can re-align the traditional class divides, tax cuts for the rich paid for by healthcare spending cuts are the exact issue that will allow Democrats to regain strength among working class voters.
Dark MAGA alienates voters
News is insane these days, but this story should induce a double-take:
Cory Mills is Dark MAGA personified. The second-term congressman represents Florida’s 7th congressional district, but is rumored to be considering a Senate campaign to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who is now Secretary of State.
NBC Washington obtained the police report:
“(Her significant other for over a year) grabbed her, shoved her, and pushed her out of the door.” The report says she showed the officer “bruises on her arm which appeared fresh.”
The first report goes on to note that during a phone call between the significant other and alleged victim, she “let officers hear Subject 1 [now identified by MPD as Mills] instruct her to lie about the origin of her bruises … Eventually, Subject 1 made contact with police and admitted that the situation escalated from verbal to physical, but it was severe enough to create bruising.”
We have been watching Mills, who looks like the type of dangerous extremist oddball who has underperformed in recent years - when challenged with significant resources.
Mills is married with two children. And he is hardcore MAGA in a district that is not (Trump won 52.2% of voters in FL-7 in 2020). And he is not just MAGA - there is something deeply dark and weird about his path to Congress.
In late January 2021, Mills was making local news in Virginia as a consultant in Falls Church, VA where he lived in a $4.2 million, 11,000 square foot house. The business, as Business Insider later reported, “sells arms to foreign governments. He won't say which ones … Mills has refused to publicly disclose his foreign dealings or even confirm who owns the company.”
A few weeks later, on March 23, 2021, Mills registered to vote in what rival Republicans called “a wee bitty house” owned by a Democratic work connection. Two weeks later, in April, Mills launched a congressional campaign saying he “recently moved to a house in Winter Park from a family home outside the district. He also maintains a residence in the Washington area, where one of his companies is headquartered.”
That company has some issues.
Pacem is also loaded with debt: It owes $48 million to a Canadian lender, nearly five times the company's highest potential valuation. Mills said the loan was funding research and development.
There are additional issues that have dogged the company. In the past two years, the munitions plant has been forced to shut down twice for failing to pay workers' compensation insurance premiums, according to Florida's Department of Workers Compensation.
According to financial disclosures from Mills, two of his companies are worth “anywhere from $10 million down to just $2 million.”
Speaking of $2 million, that is how much Mills owes his campaign committee1 - a campaign that ended 2023 with less than $70,000 in the bank.
Ok, so besides all the company debt, and campaign debt, and arms dealings with undisclosed foreign companies, and having just moved to the district, Mills also has some basic MAGA baggage. Here is how an analysis of last cycle’s freshman Representatives summed up Mills:
Mills does not view Biden as the “legitimate” president because of what he calls a “multitude of fraud that has been found throughout multiple states.” In the days after the 2020 election, he called on Republicans in Congress to support and fight for President Trump and the “America First agenda” and spoke at a “Stop the Steal” rally in Dallas, Texas. He also believes the House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection is biased and politically motivated, arguing it should instead focus on auditing the 2020 election … Mills would support returning to a system where US senators are chosen by state legislatures.
He joked about Nancy Pelosi’s husband being violently attacked. He filed a bill to imprison book publishers for five years and wants to cut off aid to Ukraine and “redefine birthright citizenship.”
Here’s a headline and pic just to round it out:
Breaking The Cycle
As we noted recently, WelcomePAC has put proverbial boots on the ground in four districts over the last two years. In all four, Cook Political Report has moved the race rating towards Democrats. This is a credit to our partners, from longtime center-left leaders to ex-Republicans to renegade operatives who think differently along with us to identify undervalued opportunities to challenge MAGA incumbents.
Most of all, it is a credit to the Democratic candidates - some of whom only recently became Democrats - throwing their careers into the fray to put democracy on offense.
And gotta say, it is a bit damning of the system. An upstart group scattered throughout the country should not be able to spot districts where Democrats are “Conceding Democracy” by not funding challengers (see: Beware The Ratings Agencies). But it is no one’s fault: there is no such thing as “The Democrats,” just an interconnected network of groups responding rationally to political incentives (see: But Don’t “The Democrats” Do That?).
MAGA extremists may not all be vulnerable, but some of those who are still don’t get challenged. Once you see it you cannot un-see it. There are winnable races all over the country. Not hundreds of them, but dozens of them.
More than enough to put the Speaker’s gavel in the hands of a Democrat. Trump and his dark MAGA army aren’t invincible. And in 2026, Democrats can win: if we listen to winners.
Mills loaned his campaign more than $2 million.