Interesting Rating Changes
The market responds to another Welcome race while 4 in 10 voters remain uncommitted
All eyes were on the Fed lowering interest rates this week. But we were as interested in another rating change: Cook Political Report moved Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry’s PA-10 in our direction, from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican”.
It's the fourth time we’ve targeted a House race; Cook has subsequently changed ratings in all four.
Here’s how PoliticsPA described the change:
Another sign that the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District seat will be a wild one in 2024. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter (CPR), an independent, non-partisan producer of federal and state election ratings, moved PA-10 from Likely R to Lean R.
… according to Cook, Democrats are trying to take a page from their successful 2022 playbook in Washington’s 3rd District, another Trump +4 seat where they managed to peel off enough independent voters to beat a “pro-insurrectionist” Republican. A moderate Democratic group, Welcome PAC, is spearheading a “Republicans Against Perry” campaign in the 10th District, seeking to raise thousands to air testimonials that, for example, Perry was one of just 21 House Republicans to vote against awarding Capitol Police officers the Congressional Gold Medal after the Jan. 6 attack.
Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is unpopular among constituents and susceptible to a Democratic upset next year, according to a group opposing him that has released a new poll of district voters.
“We scoured the country for the most vulnerable extremist and the unlucky winner is Scott Perry,” said WelcomePAC … which is backing Republicans Against Perry, had Public Policy Polling survey 587 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District on Oct. 21 and 22.
WelcomePAC has put proverbial boots on the ground in four districts over the last two years. In all four, Cook Political Report has moved the race rating towards Democrats. This is a credit to our partners, from longtime center-left leaders to ex-Republicans to renegade operatives who think differently along with us to identify undervalued opportunities to challenge MAGA incumbents.
Most of all, it is a credit to the Democratic candidates - some who only recently became Democrats - who throw their careers into the fray to put democracy on offense.
And gotta say, it is a bit damning of the system. An upstart group scattered throughout the country should not be able to spot districts where Democrats are “Conceding Democracy” by not funding challengers (see: Beware The Ratings Agencies). But it is no one’s fault: there is no such thing as “The Democrats,” just an interconnected network of groups responding rationally to political incentives (see: But Don’t “The Democrats” Do That?).
And now, in our first full cycle, we are part of that system and so bear some responsibility. Once you see it you cannot un-see it. There are winnable races all over the country. Not hundreds of them, but dozens of them - like the 21 districts we highlighted in our Conceding Democracy reports last cycle.
If you feel responsibility too, consider giving to PA-10’s Democratic nominee fund and to the rest of our Win The Middle slate here. The ROI on nudging these campaigns onto the radar of the broader marketplace is unparalleled.
If you don’t like giving to campaigns, consider subscribing to this Substack to support our analysis - we just turned on payments last month after getting a bunch of “Pledges” that Substack has turned on.
The best way to protect democracy is to practice it.
Viva la Volatility!
One more Welcome theme to hit today, related to all the voter volatility that can be untapped if we just nudge the market in stretch districts.
There are tons of uncommitted voters!
So much focus has gone into the Biden-Trump head to head polling. Which we agree is worth “Calmy Freaking Out” about (and then taking action).
But look at the inverse of Biden’s number and Trump’s number. Look at all the uncommitted voters.
Monmouth has a great visual breakdown showing 4 in 10 Americans are not committed to a presidential nominee.
Are we pleased that Biden is 2 points ahead in “Definitely” voting and tied overall at 42%? No.
But we are highly motivated by those lightly shaded bars in the middle … that’s a lot of people! Just 60% of voters are committed to either Biden or Trump. Damn the polarization hawks and the polarization porn.
Let’s go give voters something to move them.
Viva la Volatility!
PS please share Republicans Agains Perry with any friends or family in Pennsylvania! We’ve had more organic incoming energy on this than anything we’ve done - people don’t like Scott Perry!
Congratulations to Naomi on our team for winning the office pool on when Cook would shift the PA-10 rating