Democrats must contest a large map
This election cycle, there are more potentially competitive districts than ever, but Democrats must contest them
Our friends at the Welcome Democracy Institute (WDI) have released their latest Congressional Competition Index (CCI) report which explores fundraising dynamics each quarter. The CCI aims to document the “Democracy Deserts,” potentially winnable districts where parties fail to run candidates, depriving voters of meaningful choice.
The results suggest that the battle for House control will be intense and this cycle will shatter fundraising records. Let’s dig in.
More Competition, Fewer Deserts
The CCI report finds that competition has increased heading into the 2026 midterms. Following the release of the 2025 PVI scores, there has been a slight uptick in the number of competitive seats (a PVI between EVEN and +6 for either party), going from 100 to 112. That’s an encouraging sign, and it reinforces a key Welcome Party tenet: Democrats need to contest a big map. Particularly in a year like 2026, where Trump’s unpopularity could weigh on Republicans.
Republicans on Defense, Raising Strong
Incumbent Republicans in competitive seats are raising big in the first quarter, almost doubling their frontline Democratic counterparts. In districts rated as tilt or lean Republican, incumbents raised an average of $977,000 in the first quarter, while Democrats in similarly rated districts raised only $503,000.
Generic ballot polling is favoring Democrats, which means that Democratic incumbents in light blue districts could be safer this year, and the financial edge reflects that.
The strong Republican fundraising is likely driven in part by their incumbency advantage, particularly as business interests seek access to Republicans during their budget reconciliation push, which will contain tax provisions businesses are eager to capitalize on.
Among Challengers, Democrats Lead
As of March 31, there were 157 challengers who had filed and raised some amount of money in Q1. Of those, 34 raised at least $100,000 in the first three months of 2025, passing a key fundraising benchmark early on in their campaigns.
23 of those high fundraisers are Democrats and 11 are Republicans. With Republicans on the defensive, Democrats are contesting a relatively wide battlefield and raising enough to do it.
Setting Expectations
One key thing to remember this cycle is that Democrats have less “easy” wins then they did in 2018. There are 16 Democrats in Trump-won districts compared to just 3 Republicans in Harris-won seats. Back in 2018, Clinton won 23 districts that a Republican House candidate won, while Trump won 12 districts that a Democratic House candidate won.
Top Raising Challengers
When we look at the top fundraising challengers, Democrats have the momentum, with 9 of the top 10 fundraisers all hailing from the Democratic Party. The presence of so many $1 million plus quarters this far from the election suggests an engaged small donor base. However, Republicans with previous electoral backgrounds like Jim Desmond were still able to put up solid quarters.
Manny Rutinel had the strongest fundraising quarter for a Democrat in a non-special election, pulling in $1.19 million. He is running for the Hispanic-heavy, even PVI CO-08 seat created after the 2020 Census. This race will be among the most competitive in the country, with freshman Republican Gabe Evans defending after beating Yadira Caraveo by less than 2,500 votes. Evans raised $810,000 in Q1 - it’s rare to see an incumbent outraised this early.
Rutinel is a Hispanic state legislator with working-class roots and a background in environmental law. Million dollar quarters are common for powerful incumbent chairs, but Manny’s haul is unique for a challenger. Yadira Caraveo, who lost to Evans in 2024 is also running, but her fundraising was relatively weak and she has faced negative media scrutiny, leading to some skepticism that the DCCC will back her.
Welcome candidate Rebecca Cooke also put up more than a million dollars for her re-match against Derrick Van Orden in this R+3 Wisconsin district. Cooke was one of the strongest Democratic contenders according to the Split Ticket “Wins Above Replacement” (WAR) metric (D+7.3) and her fundraising shows why. Cooke was endorsed by Welcome in 2024 and again for this race and we’re excited to see her strong fundraising. She would bring a small business background to Congress and has focused on running moderate ads touting her bipartisan approach. Van Orden is clearly running scared, and is trying to deceive voters about his support for cuts to Medicaid and food stamps.
You can see Cooke at WelcomeFest June 4th.
Low Cash Incumbents
Several incumbents put up poor fundraising numbers despite representing districts that could be competitive, depending on the challenger and environment. Two of these incumbents stand out to us as a potential Lauren Boebert in the making. Recall that no forecasters expected Boebert’s race to even be close, but then, on election night she got a shock when Adam Frisch came within a few thousand votes of winning. The reason was simple: Boebert was far too extreme for the district and Frisch charted a moderate course. With Trump’s negatives quickly growing and Democratic strength in midterm elections, these districts with extreme incumbents could come into play.
Andy Ogles is a far-right Republican who represents Tennessee’s 5th congressional district. He denies the results of the 2020 election and is currently proposing a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to serve a third term. Ogles’ office was raided by the FBI related to campaign finance allegations, but the DOJ under Trump dropped the case. This scandal might explain why Ogles raised just $50,000 and has just $60,000 on hand for re-election in this R+8 district.
Cory Mills sparked negative media coverage recently with police investigating domestic violence allegations against him and a recent Congressional Ethics Committee allegation regarding illegal government contracts to companies owned by Mills. He may have even lied about his military record to get his Bronze Star. This has put a damper on his cash on hand, which sits at only $92,000 after raising $284,000 in the quarter.
Summing It Up
After the first quarter of 2025, it is clear that competition is growing and that the House battlefield will be broad. While Republicans may have a slight fundraising edge in some races, Democrats have the wind in their backs and are mounting a strong challenge. In order to make the most of their opportunity, Democrats must extend their map to contest a wide range of districts including those where extreme incumbents may make their district vulnerable. The wind is at their backs, but only if they choose to run with it. With additional candidates having launched in the last six weeks, the landscape will come into even greater focus by the time the next CCI is released.