Democrats still need an Independents strategy

Voters won't leave Trump until they can trust the Democratic Party.

Independent voters might have mixed feelings about Trump’s first 100 days in office, but they’re still far from trusting Democrats.

Picture this: You’ve agreed to hop aboard a ship and set sail. It’s loud, a bit chaotic, and the captain has a habit of steering over rough waters. You’re getting wet and cold, and you’re worried the ship might eventually go down altogether, but there's no better ship to board nearby. Your only option is to stay put and hope the waves calm, praying the journey leads somewhere worthwhile.

If you managed to picture this, you can take a peek into the minds of many independent voters who voted to elect Donald Trump in 2024. While they may have mixed feelings about the direction the country’s heading – and may feel uncomfortable economically – there’s still a lot that must happen before they decide it’s time to jump ship.

This finding is reflected consistently in both qualitative and quantitative data from a range of polling outlets.

While Echelon and CBS show Trump’s approval ratings are tanking on the key issues, Democrats are still statistically tied with Republicans on the 2026 generic congressional ballot – a vast contrast to being up 7 points in April 2017 ahead of the 2018 midterms.

This is best shown in The New York Times’ recent focus group of 13 independents who voted for Trump. Some are confused. Some are frustrated. And some are still hopeful – but not a single person said they would change their vote.

Those who are uneasy about tariffs, economic pain, or Elon Musk share a sentiment of endurance, not regret.

• Cheryl, a 66-year-old white ride-share driver in Missouri, says she feels “hopeless” about the future, complains “her rent went up $200” and that Elon Musk is allowed in the White House, but wouldn’t change her vote because “Kamala Harris… was a joke.”

• Diana, a 39-year-old Latina finance manager in California, complains tariffs are “a shot in the foot”, but says “there's nothing that would have made [her] vote for Kamala Harris.”

• Steven, a 57-year-old white business owner from Georgia, says that Trump is a “master manipulator” and “extreme narcissist,” but wouldn’t vote differently if he had the chance.

• Jordan, a 38-year-old white homemaker from Utah says that she “may not like everything,” “didn’t vote for Elon Musk”, and “had [her] eyes open when [she] voted for Trump, that it was going to hurt,” but still thinks the country will be better off in the next six months.

• John, a 29-year-old Black construction manager says, “I think [Trump’s] doing everything he’s promised,” and that he’s “happy about that.”

The anchor that tethers these swing voters to Trump isn’t necessarily enthusiasm – it's lack of a better option.

This is the central lesson for Democrats trying to win disaffected Trump voters. Frustration with our current President doesn’t mean voters support us.

Analyzing recent survey data suggesting some of Trump’s own voters have concerns about his governing, friend of the stack Reed Galen writes,

So yes, 1/4 of Trump’s voters express concern, but that doesn’t mean they’re going anywhere, nor would they go to someone else if given the chance today. These survey results are snapshots in time, yes, but Trump’s time in office will be measured in years of disruption and destruction and decades of repair and recovery.

To win then, Galen argues, Democrats need to do more than just attack Trump. They need to be a credible alternative:

We can get these voters back if we do the work and have a plan to show them 1) Republicans are not on their side and 2) there is an alternative, better option for them and their families. With voters like these, attacking Trump alone is more likely to drive them further into his arms than convincing them to peel away.

The YouGov/CBS polling is instructive: on the issue of tariffs, independent voters are closer to Democrats than Republicans. For instance, 72% of independents dislike the way Trump is approaching tariffs, closer to the 94% dislike from Democrats than the 24% dislike from Republicans. Sixty-eight percent of independents disapprove of the way Trump is handling inflation, closer to the 95% of Democrats than the 19% of Republicans. However, only 55% of independents disapprove of the way Trump is handling immigration, far lower than inflation. And half of independents support Trump’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants.

And while Trump is getting some low marks among independent voters, the recent Echelon Insights April omnibus poll finds that this is not yet translating into support for Democrats. In the Echelon polling, independents are still split on the generic ballot for 2026. Republicans have a 36% to 34% edge on inflation among independents, while Republicans retain a 50% to 23% edge on immigration.

A Fox News poll (as a reminder, Fox News uses a bipartisan team of pollsters) has Trump negative 10 on job approval. While Trump’s approval on the economy (-18), tariffs (-25) and inflation (-26) are abysmal, voters approve of his performance on border security (+15) and see him neutrally on immigration (-1).

Because even when the ship is rocky, the view from the ocean still looks worse.

Nate Silver recently did a thorough, honest analysis on Democrats’ refusal to listen to public opinion, noting:

"People don’t have time to sort through the particulars, so instead they default to their priors, e.g., that Republicans aren’t trustworthy on health care and Democrats aren’t trustworthy on immigration. Democrats are sometimes accused of being too “poll-driven.” But I think the obsession with “messaging” or the micromanagement of policy positions is the worst form of this — thinking that you can weave straw into political gold if you frame an issue in precisely the right way rather than looking at public opinion in broader strokes."

"If you poll a bunch of specifics about immigration and people side with Democrats, but then turn around and tell you they nevertheless trust Republicans more on the issue overall, perhaps the survey isn’t asking the right questions, or there’s something else it’s not capturing."

"Instead, Democrats suffer from a fallacy that I’ve called The Big Cope, which is their belief that if only the public knew all the facts, it would become incredibly hostile toward Trump."

“What sort of voter is going to turn against Trump because of Abrego Garcia when they didn’t because of January 6?”

Blue Rose Research put out polling this week on Trump’s first 100 days in office. In it, they found 47% of swing voters agree that Trump’s actions will make their lives worse, while 40% of swing voters say Trump’s actions will make their lives better.

For independent voters, until a better ship comes by – one that they can trust to head in the right direction and to a destination they believe in – they’ll just continue to hold on for dear life and ride it out, storms and all.