Theme: A deep dive into why suburban Republicans are voting for Democrats, and how “political hobbyism” is driving polarization.
Guests: Reed Galen and Eitan Hersh
Episode two of The Depolarizers features The Lincoln Project co-founder Reed Galen and political scientist Eitan Hersh. Galen courageously left the Republican Party to help elect Biden in 2020. An alumnus of campaigns for John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger and George W. Bush, Galen is the quintessential example of a depolarizer.
Hersh coined the term “political hobbyism” in his book Politics is for Power. Political hobbyism, which refers to the rise of people who treat politics like a spectator sport, has played a role in fanning the flames for political polarization and mistrust.
From Suburban Warrior to Suburban Worriers
In recent years, a notable trend has emerged in American politics: Reagan, Bush, McCain and Romney Republicans, particularly those in suburban areas, have increasingly cast their votes for Democratic candidates. These suburban, educated voters, particularly women, were a driving force in Reagan’s landslide victories. Historian Lisa McGirr called them “suburban warriors,” the base of GOP power. Today, they might be called “suburban worriers,” worried about the threats Trump poses to democracy, reproductive freedom and education in America.
In 2020, The Bulwark’s Tim Miller coined these voters “Red Dogs,” amplifying a shift that represents a significant realignment in the political landscape.
Understanding the causes of this trend, its potential longevity, and the role of "political hobbyism" in exacerbating polarization provides crucial insights into the current state of American democracy.
The rise of Donald Trump and the transformation of the Republican Party under his influence have been primary drivers of this shift. Galen, a former Republican strategist, points out that many moderate Republicans felt politically homeless after Trump's nomination in 2016. These voters, often educated suburbanites, found themselves at odds with the increasingly populist and confrontational style of the GOP under Trump.
Galen notes that in 2020, many of these disaffected Republicans likely crossed party lines to vote for Joe Biden and other Democratic candidates. This trend continued in the 2022 midterms, with moderate Republicans supporting Democratic governors like Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania (recent polls show that 57% of Independents and 32% of Republicans in Pennsylvania approve of Shapiro as governor).
The Future of the GOP
The question of whether this trend will outlast Trump is complex. Galen argues that the transformation of the Republican Party runs deeper than Trump himself, with what he terms "MAGA" ideology having "seeped in deep into a lot of places." Polling from the Manhattan Institute indicates that 76% of Republicans identify as “MAGA,” though only 23% of Independents do. This suggests that even in a post-Trump scenario, the GOP may struggle to win back these moderate suburban voters. The rise of Republicans like Josh Hawley, JD Vance and Ron DeSantis, who seek to imitate Trump, suggests that Trump’s lingering presence will be felt for years.
Here, Hersh introduces an important caveat to this analysis through his concept of "political hobbyism." Hersh argues that most people's engagement with politics is superficial, based on social media interactions and consumption of sensationalized national news rather than substantive local involvement. This leads to a nationalized view of politics where voters develop caricatured views of the opposing party.
Hersh illustrates this with an anecdote about Democrats' views on their children marrying Republicans (roughly a third said they would feel upset). While many express discomfort with the idea, Hersh suggests this is based on an imagined extreme Republican rather than the more moderate reality they might encounter in their own communities. This disconnect between nationalized perceptions and local realities contributes to polarization and may explain some of the volatility in suburban voting patterns.
The concept of political hobbyism also helps explain why this shift among suburban Republicans might not be as durable as Democrats hope. If these voters' political engagement remains superficial, their allegiances may be more susceptible to short-term factors and emotional appeals rather than deep-seated ideological convictions.
Local Engagement Is The Antidote to Polarization
Both Galen and Hersh emphasize the importance of local engagement as an antidote to this polarization, a theme of our first episode as well. Hersh highlights examples from his book of ordinary people doing "very ordinary things" that have an outsized impact on their communities. He argues that elevating these local leaders as "heroes" who sustain democracy through consensus-building and rule-following could help combat the negative effects of political hobbyism.
Galen adds another dimension to this analysis by discussing the difference in messaging strategies between Republicans and Democrats. He argues that Republicans are more effective at crafting narratives around values, while Democrats focus more on specific policy issues (though Harris has admirably avoided the 2020 primary approach of escalating policy extremism). This distinction may be crucial in understanding how to solidify the support of these suburban swing voters. If Democrats can craft a values-based narrative that resonates with these former Republicans, they may be able to create a more durable coalition.
The trend of suburban voters shifting toward Democrats is a significant development in American politics, primarily driven by the transformation of the GOP under Trump's influence. However, the superficial nature of most political engagement, as described by Hersh's concept of political hobbyism, suggests that this trend may be more volatile than it appears. The longevity of this shift will likely depend on several factors: the post-Trump direction of the Republican Party, the Democrats' ability to craft a compelling values-based narrative, and crucially, the success of efforts to combat political hobbyism through increased local engagement. Fostering substantive local political involvement may be key to reducing polarization and creating more stable political alignments in the future.
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Note: This episode was recorded prior to “the debate” and Harris’ subsequent promotion to presidential nominee.
The Depolarizers: How The Red Dogs Turned Blue