Depolarizing on PBS NewsHour

Check out our Republicans Against Perry campaign; Primaries on Tuesday can add competitive seats to the map.

We have spent the last three years studying how Democrats can win over swing voters to protect democracy. Last week, PBS NewsHour covered one of our campaigns that puts a major lesson into practice: empower courageous anti-Trump Republicans in supporting dynamic Democrats like Janelle Stelson against extremists like House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Scott “Stop The Steal” Perry.

Our cross-partisan team has spent hundreds of hours doing the research necessary to identify the highest-value campaign investments. Next week, three of these candidates on our Win The Middle slate have primary campaigns. More on those below. And you can support those candidates before the deadline here. But first, back to PBS.

PBS NewsHour in PA-10

Politics is a game of addition. And to add Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district to the Democratic column, we need to convince a few thousand Republicans to vote against incumbent Scott Perry. The House Freedom Caucus Chair was a vocal proponent of Trump’s election lies and been investigated by the FBI.

Unlike most extreme Republicans, Perry is actually vulnerable - just like Lauren Boebert was last year when we targeted her race. But Democrats barely invested in beating Perry last cycle. We set out to change that this year. And to change it, we needed to change the math by getting enough Republicans to oppose him.

Courageous Republicans stepped up, and polling shows that Perry is in fact at risk once the electorate gets to know his unpopular stances. Here’s local news coverage in Penn Live: 

Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is unpopular among constituents and susceptible to a Democratic upset next year, according to a group opposing him that has released a new poll of district voters.

“We scoured the country for the most vulnerable extremist and the unlucky winner is Scott Perry,” said WelcomePAC … which is backing Republicans Against Perry, had Public Policy Polling survey 587 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District on Oct. 21 and 22.

And more local coverage from PoliticsPA describing why the race is more competitive this year:

Another sign that the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District seat will be a wild one in 2024. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter (CPR), an independent, non-partisan producer of federal and state election ratings, moved PA-10 from Likely R to Lean R.

… according to Cook, Democrats are trying to take a page from their successful 2022 playbook in Washington’s 3rd District, another Trump +4 seat where they managed to peel off enough independent voters to beat a “pro-insurrectionist” Republican. A moderate Democratic group, Welcome PAC, is spearheading a “Republicans Against Perry” campaign in the 10th District, seeking to raise thousands to air testimonials that, for example, Perry was one of just 21 House Republicans to vote against awarding Capitol Police officers the Congressional Gold Medal after the Jan. 6 attack.

The other reason the race rating change? Because of Welcome-endorsed candidate Janelle Stelson (read our endorsement here). The longtime local news anchor and former registered Republican has significant credibility to win over swing voters. And Scott Perry has continued to ramp up his extremism, most recently claiming that the KKK is "the military wing of the Democratic Party". 

The latest independent public polling shows Stelson within a point of Perry, consistent with a tight and narrowing race portrayed by the private polling.

Stelson signaled her intention to focus on addition in winning over Republican voters, telling local media she’s a trusted, nonpartisan voice:

But Stelson said she has gotten support from across the aisle, and plans to reach out to more Republicans and independents now that the primary is over.

“I’ve been the trusted, nonpartisan voice,” she said. “If I haven’t been sitting in your living room doing a story on you in all that time, I’ve been in your living room on your TV, chances are.”

Even her ex-husband, whom she called a “hardcore Republican” donated to her campaign, she said.

“It’s hard to go up against an entrenched incumbent,” she said. “But again, having so many Republicans and independents reach out to me the way they have been over the past several months lets me know this is possible.”

Perry’s extremism is costing him vital support and helping Stelson gain moderate support. Perry is too extreme for AIPAC, which announced they have paused fundraising for him after his vote against aid for Israel. DMFI, a pro-Israel Democratic organization, endorsed Stelson. Stelson also landed endorsements from the Dem members of PA's House delegation.

All that local focus is how PBS NewsHour ended up in PA-10, looking at how courageous Republicans are stepping up to change the math in favor of our democracy. Check out the full PBS NewsHour segment over on the Republicans Against Perry site. And support Janelle on our Win The Middle slate here.

The Dem Who Can Win Long Island

While Janelle Stelson seeks to win over swing voters in PA, there are competitive Democratic primaries in New York and Colorado next week that will determine whether swing voters even get a chance in November.

Ahead of Tuesday’s primary election in New York, the news channel NY1 covered the closing pitch from Welcome candidate John Avlon in congressional district NY-1. You can see in the story why he is the Democrat Who Can Win, as we covered in our initial ad releases.

The story makes it clear: John Avlon, who literally wrote the book against political extremism, is focused on winning swing voters while his primary opponent repeats the falsehood that turnout can win this vital House seat for Democrats. WelcomePAC has invested significantly in this race because John can add this seat to the competitive map in November. The same is not true of his opponent, who under-performed Joe Biden significantly as the district’s nominee in 2020.

Depolarizers in Colorado

There are also depolarizing candidates running in Colorado’s primary election on Tuesday.

Few candidates were more effective at winning swing voters against an extremist last cycle than Adam Frisch (CO-03), who went to a recount against Lauren Boebert in a district where Trump got 53% of the vote. Check out how Adam put a “Safe R” seat in play here. Another Win The Middle candidate, Joe Reagan, is running in CO-05, a district where Trump got 53% of the vote but Democrats did not invest significantly in a challenger last cycle.

Important for both races will be the results of the Republican primaries: in both cases, Republican primary voters are deciding between the far-right and the farther right. In CO-05, Reagan will face either extremist Dave Williams, who tried to change his name to Dave “Let’s Go Brandon” Williams on a primary ballot, or Jeff Crank, a conservative commentator. Americans For Prosperity and America Leads Action are spending millions to stop Williams from winning. But he is endorsed by Trump, so will see.

The impact of the GOP primary was seen in local news coverage of a recent debate, which featured a smiling Joe Reagan “as the intraparty conflict between Republicans Jeff Crank and Dave Williams came to a boil onstage.” We have a new ad up for Joe as he seeks to win the Democratic nomination and put this district into play in November.

In CO-03, Frisch will face either Ron Hanks, who participated in the January 6th insurrection or Jeff Hurd, the establishment favorite in the race, who is also benefiting from outside spending from Americans for Prosperity. 

It Adds Up To Winning The Middle

We have learned a lot over the last three years about winning swing voters. But the biggest lesson is that you need courageous leaders to step up - as Republicans who validate, and as Democrats who run for office. You can support Janelle, Adam, and Joe on our Win The Middle slate here.