Disengaged Depolarizers

New report on independent voters, and on where democracy is being conceding

With so much happening at the top of the ticket in this year’s presidential election, it’s worth taking a step back and examining the health of our democracy down-ballot. Our sister organization the Welcome Democracy Institute (WDI) released two new reports exploring the concerning lack of competition in many primary and general congressional elections. The first analyzes a new reform in Colorado that allows no party affiliation (NPA) voters to participate in primaries of either party, and how to increase engagement with this segment of voters. The second is a new Congressional Competition Index that shines light on the the “democracy deserts” across the country: districts parties should contest but are leaving uncompetitive. Let’s dive in! 

Disengaged Depolarizers in Colorado

At the end of June, the Welcome Democracy Institute released a new poll that studies Colorado’s “disengaged depolarizers” — the NPA voters who vote in general elections, but often eschew primaries. A recently implemented Colorado law allows these voters to vote in partisan primaries, but relatively few voters are taking advantage of the opportunity. The Welcome Democracy Institute poll conducted with 3W Insights finds that these NPA voters are rarely contacted by parties and want to see more moderate candidates running. 

Only 27% of NPA voters report receiving contact from a political campaign, creating a cycle of disengagement. Because NPAs do not have a history of participating in primary elections, they are not prioritized as part of the expensive voter contact efforts undertaken by political candidates, parties, and advocacy groups who engage in primary elections. The mutual disengagement of these voters and campaigns further entrenches extremism because 49% of NPA voters report being “moderate” ideologically. WDI calls this the “disengaged depolarizers” effect — the missed opportunity to engage active voters who have a moderating influence on politics in primaries and pull parties to the center.

Congress, Uncontested

Additionally, a new study from the Welcome Democracy Institute, the first edition of its Congressional Competition Index (CCI), finds that parties are leaving a large number of congressional districts uncontested, or only partially contested. The CCI is a new and expanded report that builds on the “Conceding Democracy” series, which analyzes the races across the country where the parties aren’t seriously competing.

The report has some eye-popping facts. For instance, analyzing only the 100 seats that should be fully contested based on how close they are in the presidential election, 68 are not fully contested, while 32 are currently contested with a candidate raising at least $1 million, suggesting that parties are focusing on a relatively narrow battlefield. There are a number of districts within the range of winnable districts that Democrats aren’t contesting or are barely contesting:

• FL-04 - Freshman Aaron Bean is benefiting from Democratic reticence in Florida, where he will coast to victory in a seat Trump won by 6.7 points. No Democrat has raised even a dollar to challenge him. 

• WI-01 - This district, which once belonged to Speaker Paul Ryan, was only won by Trump by 2 points. Despite the fact that it is the type of district that may be moving back towards Democrats, they will not be able to benefit from any favorable trends because they aren’t running a serious challenger. The leading candidate has just $5,000 on hand. 

• FL-15 - Trump won this district by only 3 points, but Democrats aren’t seriously challenging first-term incumbent and former Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee. The leading Democrat has less than $1,000 on hand. 

• OH-15 - Another Ohio seat that Democrats are not contesting, Trump won this seat by 6.8 percent in 2020, but incumbent Mike Carey’s leading challenger has only $100,000 on hand. 

• IA-02 - Trump won this district by 4.4 points in 2020, but Democrats have held this district in the recent past. Still, this cycle they are conceding it, perhaps believing Iowa is moving in the wrong direction federally. The leading Democrat has less than $80,000 on hand.  

• FL-07 - First-term incumbent Cory Mills has thus far avoided a serious challenger in this district Trump won by 5.5 points, part of a broader theme of Democrats avoiding Florida seats. The leading Democratic challenger has less than $40,000 on hand. We covered this district in a WelcomeStack post this spring.

• TX-23 - While Tony Gonzalez faced a tough primary, he isn’t facing any general election competition, possibly due to his moderate approach to gun violence after the Uvalve shooting (the source of his primary challenge). Trump won this seat by 7 points, but Democrats thus far aren’t contesting it. The leading Democratic challenger has around $2,000 on hand. 

• NY-11 - Nicole Malliotakis’s seat went for Trump by 7-and-a-half points, but she isn’t facing any general election competition, with the leading Democratic challenger boasting only $56,000 on hand. 

There is, however, some good news in the report: parties are contesting fewer unwinnable districts, like Republicans contesting AOC’s district and Democrats contesting Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district. 

One thing we noticed while compiling the data for the report might be of particular interest to the WelcomeStack readership. Looking at the ten districts held by each party that are considered most competitive, Democrats are leading Republicans in fundraising.

In seats currently held by Democrats, incumbents enjoy a cash-on-hand advantage against the leading Republican of on average $1.5 million. In seats currently held by Republicans, Republicans have a cash-on-hand advantage against the leading Democrat of on average only $272,000. 

Democrats are doing a better job contesting democracy this election cycle, and the shift of college-educated voters into the Democratic coalition has created a durable small donor fundraising advantage. In addition, because Democrats in swing districts have pursued a more moderate policy approach, they do less to excite opposite party donors. 

Don’t Despair, Look Down-ballot

As Democrats struggle to comprehend the current state of their Presidential prospects, practicing democracy down-ballot becomes all the more important. Prediction markets currently place Democratic odds of winning the House higher than their odds of winning the Senate and Presidency, at roughly a coin flip. With odds that tight, every race counts, and bringing races that aren’t currently being fully contested onto the map presents the most compelling path forward for Democrats to prevent a Trump-led GOP trifecta.  

And, of course, you can always support the candidates who are contesting the space by taking on extremist Republicans this November via our Win the Middle slate.