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Good stuff Liam. But hard for me to put as much weight on Democratic strategic decision-making in 1992 and 2008 when Clinton garnered only 43% of the popular vote and Obama was running against The Great Recession. They then operated well enough to not blow the incumbency advantage (although I have some questions whether Obama would have beaten a Trumpy Republican). Biden had a similar bit of good fortune to be running during the pandemic but did not operate well enough to benefit from incumbency. One could argue that Democrats have won three unique elections of the last dozen and then picked up two terms off incumbency. Gore might have the best case for doing well without holding any unique advantage. Although Clinton's resounding win in 1996 is right up there (albeit with only 49% of the popular vote).

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