Massachusetts has more to do with Democrats losing than you think.
It is primary day in the country’s biggest blue heavyweight, which for decades has played an outsized role in directing the future of the party. Massachusetts has more political operatives, donors, and presidential candidates per capita than anywhere else in America. The run-up to primary day has been no different, featuring local progressive titans like Elizabeth Warren & Ayanna Pressley, along with national leaders from Bernie Sanders to David Hogg plugging their preferred candidates.
Incumbents are under threat up and down the ballot in the Commonwealth, from Senator Ed Markey and Congressman Stephen Lynch to state Senators facing challengers backed by Boston Mayor Michelle Wu.
We’ve written about the role of Massachusetts before, but the story of tonight can be found in just two precincts.
Podville vs. Riverdale
Dedham is a town of 25,000 directly southwest of Boston. The suburb’s Precinct 2 is an eerily accurate predictor of elections and, along with its wealthy neighboring precinct, tells the story of two paths for the Democratic Party.
In March 2020, presidential primary results in the precinct, comprising the Riverdale neighborhood that directly abuts Boston, mirrored the state overall: Joe Biden 33%, Bernie Sanders 27%, Elizabeth Warren 21%.
Six months later, it happened again in the competitive primary challenges to its members of Congress. The precinct, comprising the Riverdale neighborhood, was again exactly spot-on with the overall results: Senator Ed Markey 55% against Joe Kennedy, and Rep. Stephen Lynch 67% against left-wing challenger Robbie Goldstein, the same as overall results. And it is not just true in lower-turnout primary elections - Riverdale matches the state in general elections as well.1
The dense suburban flavor of Riverdale gives way rather suddenly when one drives through Dedham Center, famous for the salacious trial of Karen Read. The divisiveness inspired by that trial is a good analogy for the jarring scene outside your car window as you enter the Town & Country magazine shoot that is Precinct 1.
Zillow maps give a clear sense: in the upper right are Precinct 2 homes going for $695k and $749k, with $599k and $399k in another precinct at the bottom right. And then there are Precinct 1 homes: $2.85m, $3.15m, $5.50m, etc.
Pod Save America founder Tommy Vietor grew up in Dedham and, while I have no idea where his house was, I’d bet a decent amount that the product of the Dedham Country Day School lived in Precinct 1.
You can probably guess which precinct votes more for the progressive-coded candidates. Let’s call Precinct 2 by its neighborhood name of Riverdale and rename Precinct 1 to Podville:
As results come in tonight, if you want to know the winner, look at Precinct 2. If you want to know where the progressive political podcast audience is going, look at Precinct 1.
Join us live tomorrow at 9am EST
And if you want to understand what really happened, and what it means for the future, tune into our Substack Live tomorrow with friends including inimitable Scott Ferson, advisor to both Senator Markey and Rep. Lynch, and author of the compelling How the Democrats Lost America: Making Sense of the 2024 Election and the Future of American Politics.
The morning after competitive primaries are filled with hot takes, hastily compiled data, and good humor. Join us!
In November 2024, Riverdale gave Kamala Harris 62% compared to 61% statewide. In 2020, Biden got 67% compared to 66% statewide.
Spoiler alert: Ed Markey appears to have defeated Seth Moulton. Voters seem to have chosen experience, proven service, & battle-tested progressive values.