I just spent the entire day canvassing in 98 degree Denver in a working class neighborhood. Not just canvassing, but Deep Canvassing. It was awesome, invigorating, and alarming.
It’s undeniable, and our small group convening afterward all had the same overwhelming reactions: among left-leaning working class ppl, both candidates are disliked. Votes for Biden may come, but it’s not certain, and they will not be enthusiastic.
We need a vision and energy. For many reasons I will not say publicly (but would on a call if you convene such a discussion), I am alarmed by the directives that seem to be coming downwind (anecdotally; I am not there) from the party in response to voter concerns about Biden’s ability to win.
So far, it feels apiece with the general “don’t worry your pretty little head” vibe we’ve been getting for some time. One-directional listening, which is actually just talking.
Both 2016 and 2020 under estimated Trump so the Biden wishful thinking crowd who point out the error in polls, should consider that maybe Biden's deficit is more likely actually worse. My take on why polls underestimate Trump is that many Trump supporters are anti establishment and dont respond to phone surveys. This has actually been shown, and though polls could correct for that, by adjusting for who the person voted for in the prior election, most don't.
My worry is that Biden will drag down the Dems in the HOR as there is a real coattails effect. The congressional generic polling now is pretty dead even (D +0.5 by 538 but R + 0.3 by RealClearPolitics) and the House in the 11 elections since 2000 only once went in contrast to the congressional generic polling.
Lastly the Senate at a minimum will be 50-50 as Manchin's seat is now safe R. Of all the remaining close seats rated Lean or Toss Up, they are all held by Dems, and they are behind in one, MT, and close to even in several, so the Senate will likely go R or even.
I am a Dem so hanging the crepe isnt fun, but it should motivate Dems to do something rather than whistle Zippity Doo Dah as the canoe is heading for the waterfall.
We live in a conspiracy driven culture. The whole Democratic nomination will look to many like an elite manipulated process to nominate Kamala without primaries by forcing Biden out after the fact by Biden's own advisers (ie "the DNC").
Harris was chosen precisely because she couldn't challenge Biden electorally. Same with Biden in regards to Obama, as well as probably all modern vicepresidential nominees (except maybe Palin).
The press likes to discount Trump's own popularity because they believe voters and stupid and they don't share either their interests or values. Support for Trump is basically solid. Other than the Never Trumpers, his party base is behind him much more than Democrats are united. His cross party support is high because many of his policies were popular and some have become even more popular with time.
Democrats have misinterpreted the 2008 Obama election. Support for Democrats is eroding among Black voters and Black voters are only voting in line for Black candidates. We can see this in many primaries. Among Black voters ideology is trumped by color, except when it comes to electability in high profile races.
I'm not sure Harris will unite the Black vote the way Obama did. Democrats' problem is with male voters.
Harris standing and abilities could be discerned with an early vicepresidential debate.
***
We won’t know the actual favorability of anyone until they, at least in some sort of internal primary.
Hyper-Partisan Democrats have now completely extended the Fox News fallacy to the rest of media. Both parties are now completely in bubbles.
It is not the infighting that is a turn off, but rather the complete lack of focus on actual voter concerns.
The GOP has now come out with a very deceptive, yet concrete and populist platform.
When the Democrats’ platform comes out it will probably be some encyclopedia size publication full of jargon, lacking in narrative and unexplainable to the masses.
***
Making Hollywood the spokesperson for Democratic voters because politicians have no backbone is just too toxic.
***
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of why many Democrats think Biden is ineffective due to his "lack of energy".
People think Biden hasn't been on top of the inflation crisis mostly.
They think because he promises to take care of the economy, his inability to create change is due to not being able to do enough because he is too old.
But as the party response to the debate has shown, the problem isn't Biden, it is the party as an organization.
Muddling thru, ambiguity, incoherence, lack of leadership and mishandling communications are the essentials of the party brand all the way from White House leaders and ex-leaders to your local member of Congress, governor, mayor, etc.
***
There is no ideological challenge to Biden.
Yes some leftists (most of whom are not even Democrats) would like Biden dropped as payback for the Gaza stance (a stance that most of the rest of the party shares).
But there is no progressive challenge to Biden. Neither Sanders nor Warren have called on him to drop out (maybe because of their own age). Both (and Sanders in particular given his role in the party) have been incredibly loyal to Biden. (It is the other senator Warren that is pushing Biden out.) Same with AOC.
The push against Biden is an inter-"centrist" issue. Why? Because centrists with no policy backbone stay silent about everything only to make rushed decisions during crises. And they only speak after reading a hundred polls.
Centrists brough us the crisis of American democracy and have no plan on how to actually get out of it.
Biden was actually able to hit the sweet spot when it comes to policy, specially lately with his stances on immigration. But he is a terrible communicator and always was. He is still better than almost all congressional Democrats.
Biden is right that the party's future isn't among the DC elites. It is not in California or New York politics either.
The donors pushing for an open process to replace Biden are weirdly on to something finally.
***
Replacing Biden with Harris
1. Replacing one bad debater with an even worse one
2. Coronation style appointment which reminds voters of Hillary's
3. Moving towards identity politics once again
4. Biden not fit to be candidate, but fit to be president?
Fake consensus between partisans will create problems with independent voters
***
Biden's errors:
- in debate order, not order of importance
- regarding strategy and substance, not style
1. Trying to portray the Trump economy as negative
This is just telling voter's (including a lot of Democrats) they are stupid.
2. Promising 2 million homes
Meaningless statistic (except for policy wonks ie 1% of the country).
3. Capping rents
Fake populism that goes against his actual record of ending pandemic housing protections.
4. Corporate greed
This requires a whole narrative, not just a quip.
5. Prescription prices
Haven't come into effect, requires further explanation as to why. Need to tie in with political corruption and corporate greed.
6. Abortion
Too much focus on legality instead of morality of Roe v Wade.
7. Immigration
Just promise to keep the border closed until the situation is under control. All the rest is unnecessary. Focus more on attacking Republicans as do nothings and Trump as an obstructionist. Fact checking is a waste of time.
Using immigration as a cause of economic growth was a mistake.
8. Foreign policy
Biden should just have insisted that Trump answer the questions posed by the moderators. Trump should be forced to state his own terms of settlement.
He should attack the notion of immediately settling the conflict in Ukraine by comparing to past Trump broken promises (Mexico paying for the unconstructed wall).
He needs to engage directly with the increasing isolationism problem in the GOP. Call out their votes against Ukraine.
On Israel he should talk less about the ceasefire and just simplify by calling for a balance between self-defense and protecting civilians.
9. Charlottesville
The allusion needs explanation and context.
10. Tax credit for black home buyers and student loan relief
Mistake presenting and framing general policies in terms of helping specific groups.
Should have pivoted to Republican opposition to criminal justice reforms. And attacked radicals on the left for defunding the police, placing himself at the center.
11. Climate change and China
Should have attacked China before Trump.
12. China and tariffs
Imposes tariffs on electric vehicles and other products but opposes tariffs in general. Is incoherent.
***
Overall Trump talks in narratives and Biden wasted his time with some fact checking and allusions that only political junkies remember.
The debate was a 90 minute ad with Trump attacking Biden about immigration. Totally predictible, which makes Biden's approach more unforgiveable.
Democrats have to choose which lies to focus on. That was the problem with the debate.
I just spent the entire day canvassing in 98 degree Denver in a working class neighborhood. Not just canvassing, but Deep Canvassing. It was awesome, invigorating, and alarming.
It’s undeniable, and our small group convening afterward all had the same overwhelming reactions: among left-leaning working class ppl, both candidates are disliked. Votes for Biden may come, but it’s not certain, and they will not be enthusiastic.
We need a vision and energy. For many reasons I will not say publicly (but would on a call if you convene such a discussion), I am alarmed by the directives that seem to be coming downwind (anecdotally; I am not there) from the party in response to voter concerns about Biden’s ability to win.
So far, it feels apiece with the general “don’t worry your pretty little head” vibe we’ve been getting for some time. One-directional listening, which is actually just talking.
Both 2016 and 2020 under estimated Trump so the Biden wishful thinking crowd who point out the error in polls, should consider that maybe Biden's deficit is more likely actually worse. My take on why polls underestimate Trump is that many Trump supporters are anti establishment and dont respond to phone surveys. This has actually been shown, and though polls could correct for that, by adjusting for who the person voted for in the prior election, most don't.
My worry is that Biden will drag down the Dems in the HOR as there is a real coattails effect. The congressional generic polling now is pretty dead even (D +0.5 by 538 but R + 0.3 by RealClearPolitics) and the House in the 11 elections since 2000 only once went in contrast to the congressional generic polling.
Lastly the Senate at a minimum will be 50-50 as Manchin's seat is now safe R. Of all the remaining close seats rated Lean or Toss Up, they are all held by Dems, and they are behind in one, MT, and close to even in several, so the Senate will likely go R or even.
I am a Dem so hanging the crepe isnt fun, but it should motivate Dems to do something rather than whistle Zippity Doo Dah as the canoe is heading for the waterfall.
We live in a conspiracy driven culture. The whole Democratic nomination will look to many like an elite manipulated process to nominate Kamala without primaries by forcing Biden out after the fact by Biden's own advisers (ie "the DNC").
Harris was chosen precisely because she couldn't challenge Biden electorally. Same with Biden in regards to Obama, as well as probably all modern vicepresidential nominees (except maybe Palin).
The press likes to discount Trump's own popularity because they believe voters and stupid and they don't share either their interests or values. Support for Trump is basically solid. Other than the Never Trumpers, his party base is behind him much more than Democrats are united. His cross party support is high because many of his policies were popular and some have become even more popular with time.
Democrats have misinterpreted the 2008 Obama election. Support for Democrats is eroding among Black voters and Black voters are only voting in line for Black candidates. We can see this in many primaries. Among Black voters ideology is trumped by color, except when it comes to electability in high profile races.
I'm not sure Harris will unite the Black vote the way Obama did. Democrats' problem is with male voters.
Harris standing and abilities could be discerned with an early vicepresidential debate.
***
We won’t know the actual favorability of anyone until they, at least in some sort of internal primary.
Hyper-Partisan Democrats have now completely extended the Fox News fallacy to the rest of media. Both parties are now completely in bubbles.
It is not the infighting that is a turn off, but rather the complete lack of focus on actual voter concerns.
The GOP has now come out with a very deceptive, yet concrete and populist platform.
When the Democrats’ platform comes out it will probably be some encyclopedia size publication full of jargon, lacking in narrative and unexplainable to the masses.
***
Making Hollywood the spokesperson for Democratic voters because politicians have no backbone is just too toxic.
***
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of why many Democrats think Biden is ineffective due to his "lack of energy".
People think Biden hasn't been on top of the inflation crisis mostly.
They think because he promises to take care of the economy, his inability to create change is due to not being able to do enough because he is too old.
But as the party response to the debate has shown, the problem isn't Biden, it is the party as an organization.
Muddling thru, ambiguity, incoherence, lack of leadership and mishandling communications are the essentials of the party brand all the way from White House leaders and ex-leaders to your local member of Congress, governor, mayor, etc.
***
There is no ideological challenge to Biden.
Yes some leftists (most of whom are not even Democrats) would like Biden dropped as payback for the Gaza stance (a stance that most of the rest of the party shares).
But there is no progressive challenge to Biden. Neither Sanders nor Warren have called on him to drop out (maybe because of their own age). Both (and Sanders in particular given his role in the party) have been incredibly loyal to Biden. (It is the other senator Warren that is pushing Biden out.) Same with AOC.
The push against Biden is an inter-"centrist" issue. Why? Because centrists with no policy backbone stay silent about everything only to make rushed decisions during crises. And they only speak after reading a hundred polls.
Centrists brough us the crisis of American democracy and have no plan on how to actually get out of it.
Biden was actually able to hit the sweet spot when it comes to policy, specially lately with his stances on immigration. But he is a terrible communicator and always was. He is still better than almost all congressional Democrats.
Biden is right that the party's future isn't among the DC elites. It is not in California or New York politics either.
The donors pushing for an open process to replace Biden are weirdly on to something finally.
***
Replacing Biden with Harris
1. Replacing one bad debater with an even worse one
2. Coronation style appointment which reminds voters of Hillary's
3. Moving towards identity politics once again
4. Biden not fit to be candidate, but fit to be president?
Fake consensus between partisans will create problems with independent voters
***
Biden's errors:
- in debate order, not order of importance
- regarding strategy and substance, not style
1. Trying to portray the Trump economy as negative
This is just telling voter's (including a lot of Democrats) they are stupid.
2. Promising 2 million homes
Meaningless statistic (except for policy wonks ie 1% of the country).
3. Capping rents
Fake populism that goes against his actual record of ending pandemic housing protections.
4. Corporate greed
This requires a whole narrative, not just a quip.
5. Prescription prices
Haven't come into effect, requires further explanation as to why. Need to tie in with political corruption and corporate greed.
6. Abortion
Too much focus on legality instead of morality of Roe v Wade.
7. Immigration
Just promise to keep the border closed until the situation is under control. All the rest is unnecessary. Focus more on attacking Republicans as do nothings and Trump as an obstructionist. Fact checking is a waste of time.
Using immigration as a cause of economic growth was a mistake.
8. Foreign policy
Biden should just have insisted that Trump answer the questions posed by the moderators. Trump should be forced to state his own terms of settlement.
He should attack the notion of immediately settling the conflict in Ukraine by comparing to past Trump broken promises (Mexico paying for the unconstructed wall).
He needs to engage directly with the increasing isolationism problem in the GOP. Call out their votes against Ukraine.
On Israel he should talk less about the ceasefire and just simplify by calling for a balance between self-defense and protecting civilians.
9. Charlottesville
The allusion needs explanation and context.
10. Tax credit for black home buyers and student loan relief
Mistake presenting and framing general policies in terms of helping specific groups.
Should have pivoted to Republican opposition to criminal justice reforms. And attacked radicals on the left for defunding the police, placing himself at the center.
11. Climate change and China
Should have attacked China before Trump.
12. China and tariffs
Imposes tariffs on electric vehicles and other products but opposes tariffs in general. Is incoherent.
***
Overall Trump talks in narratives and Biden wasted his time with some fact checking and allusions that only political junkies remember.
The debate was a 90 minute ad with Trump attacking Biden about immigration. Totally predictible, which makes Biden's approach more unforgiveable.
Democrats have to choose which lies to focus on. That was the problem with the debate.
***
https://newrepublic.com/article/183784/poll-trump-lying-huge-weakness
Most of the economic actions the public remembers positively about the Trump administration were pushed for by Democrats.