“Civil society actors who are serious about stopping and reversing authoritarian drift should ask themselves a clarifying question: “Do the policy positions we hold currently appeal to a broad majority of Americans, including the median voter?”
Trump’s lack of popularity isn't a proxy for Democratic enthusiasm. They’ve become the default 'not-him' lever, nothing more. IMO, the Left has actually regressed. I’m fully prepared to be utterly disappointed once they're back in power. Same cycle, different year.
I think Trump's disapprovals bode well for the Blue in November with the Congressional Generic today at D+6 (RCP) the highest since Trump's Inauguration though not quite as high in November 2018 when the Dems had a field day but certainly high enough to take the HOR if it holds.
However long term approval of the Democratic Party is 34% (GOP at 39% (RCP)) which is what Dems should care the most about. The only thing keeping the party alive is MAGA if a normie GOP like Nikki Haley ran, I think she would mop up.
And the issues you mentioned were the same in the Red Rose research that Ezra Klein brought forth that killed Dems - immigration, crime, woke.
I've long believed, admittedly without much (any?) evidence, that Trump's hardcore MAGA following was much closer to one in five (20%) than two in five (40%) as most polling indicated - that seemed to be his "floor." But the worse he gets, the closer we get to the "real" number as those who we just along for the ride or too traditional to buck the movement reach their breaking point and defect. I think a strong approval of 22% is close to the real MAGA mark, and yet somehow we've let these people put our country, and perhaps the world, on the brink. It's maddening.
So much this!
“Civil society actors who are serious about stopping and reversing authoritarian drift should ask themselves a clarifying question: “Do the policy positions we hold currently appeal to a broad majority of Americans, including the median voter?”
Trump’s lack of popularity isn't a proxy for Democratic enthusiasm. They’ve become the default 'not-him' lever, nothing more. IMO, the Left has actually regressed. I’m fully prepared to be utterly disappointed once they're back in power. Same cycle, different year.
Trump has a remarkable ability to survive no matter what. I'm skeptical that we'll be able to ignore him until he literally can't communicate anymore.
I think Trump's disapprovals bode well for the Blue in November with the Congressional Generic today at D+6 (RCP) the highest since Trump's Inauguration though not quite as high in November 2018 when the Dems had a field day but certainly high enough to take the HOR if it holds.
However long term approval of the Democratic Party is 34% (GOP at 39% (RCP)) which is what Dems should care the most about. The only thing keeping the party alive is MAGA if a normie GOP like Nikki Haley ran, I think she would mop up.
And the issues you mentioned were the same in the Red Rose research that Ezra Klein brought forth that killed Dems - immigration, crime, woke.
I've long believed, admittedly without much (any?) evidence, that Trump's hardcore MAGA following was much closer to one in five (20%) than two in five (40%) as most polling indicated - that seemed to be his "floor." But the worse he gets, the closer we get to the "real" number as those who we just along for the ride or too traditional to buck the movement reach their breaking point and defect. I think a strong approval of 22% is close to the real MAGA mark, and yet somehow we've let these people put our country, and perhaps the world, on the brink. It's maddening.