In December 2024, the last uncalled House race in America finally got decided: Adam Gray beat Republican incumbent John Duarte in California’s 13th congressional district by just 187 votes. Two years earlier, Duarte had beaten Gray by 564 votes.
Trump ended up winning CA-13 by 5 points while Gray also won it, making Gray the only Democrat in 2024 to flip a House seat that Trump won.
How did he do it? A new video collaboration from Blue Dog Action and Welcome explores the answer to that question by speaking with the voters who elected Gray.
The place explains the man
“I grew up here in Merced, California. Just a few blocks from where we’re sitting is what was our family business for over 50 years: Merced Dairy Supply. This idea of being involved, taking some responsibility for your community, a lot of that led me into public life.”
Merced’s population was in the 60,000s when Gray was growing up. It’s pushing 100,000 now, and he can narrate the difference because he’s lived it.
The region’s agriculture community grades Gray on camera:
“We have a wonderful relationship. He’s always open to talk to us. He knows the ag issues. He is definitely a Blue Dog Democrat. He will cross lines to try to make things happen.”
Work, not fight
Gray talks about work the way most politicians talk about fighting. The film’s focus is a project everyone told him was dead on arrival: a medical school for the Valley.
“I was told, ‘You’re never going to have a medical school. Don’t even talk about it. It’s not on the table, it’s not for discussion.’ Through two governors and several speakers, I kept it as my number one priority. Ultimately, with Governor Newsom, we were able to secure the money. And now we have a building.”
Then he gives the credit away:
“Someday we’re going to have a hospital, and someday we’re going to have a full-on medical school. That’s just that perseverance that everybody had in the community for all those years.”
The university remembers who did the pushing:
“He wasn’t really going to accept no for an answer. Not from his colleagues in the legislature or Congress, but also not from the university, which forced all of us to level up our game.”
A longtime colleague explains how he operates:
“With Adam, he always found something in it for everybody. You could have a group of 10 people that are all in disagreement, who have disparate interests. Through conversations that are always informal, always disarming through humor, Adam has this amazing ability to get to the bottom line and figure out what they actually want.”
That’s what defines a Blue Dog: bringing people together regardless of party to solve tough problems.
Water, water, water
Ask Gray the three most important issues in his district and you get one answer, three times: water. In the Valley, water reliability is destiny for farmers.
“One of the worst droughts in California history is 1977, which is the year I was born. I was born into a drought, and I feel like I’ve spent my whole adult political life fighting to protect us from droughts.”
The film visits the proposed Del Puerto Canyon Reservoir — the kind of project the Valley hasn’t seen since San Luis. While politicians pontificate about a progressivism that builds, Adam Gray is, well, building.
The official position of Merced
At Joe Del Bosque’s melon farm outside Los Banos, the national immigration debate meets the people who actually do the work. These voters hold Blue Dog values: the need for a secure border, but a humane path to citizenship for those who can contribute to America’s greatness.
“We’ve spent an awful lot of time on the 1% of people that are criminals. What about the 99% of people that are hardworking families that are here making a better life? What are we doing to help them?”
And:
“People have literally come from all over the world to work with their hands and farm to live the American dream. We just have a different attitude about immigration. We care more about hard work. You want to come here and work hard, you can succeed here.”
Del Bosque:
“All they want to do is to be able to work without having any fear. They want to raise families. They have values just like we all do.”
Many Democrats struggle to formulate their immigration position, relying on focus groups and polls. Adam Gray doesn’t need focus groups: his conversations with voters ground his policy views.
The film ends where Gray always ends: “My job is about solving problems, not about winning an argument, not about blaming other people for our problems.”
This November, Gray faces Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton who was running against a different member of Congress a few months ago and switched seats when Prop 50 moved the lines.
Gray is a Win the Middle-endorsed incumbent also endorsed by the Blue Dogs. The Welcome and Blue Dog Action slates over-performed Harris in Trump-won districts by nearly six points, and nobody’s margin was thinner than Gray’s.
Gray knew what it took to win two years ago and he’s carried that with him throughout his time in Congress, proving to not only those 187 voters who delivered him the victory in 2024 but to all of CA-13 that he’s working on their behalf and always will.
You have to walk the grounds of U.C. Merced to appreciate the challenge to building a U.C. campus there. No large urban centers to accumulate voters that give weight to your campaign. Hot as hell in the summer. No big local attractions for the typical pampered university student. The site says "you are here to work, to learn, not to play" Isn't that what having a job is about? Isn't being successful at your job what being an adult is about? A university is supposed to be the launching pad that transforms your parents' successful molding of your character into an independent citizen. Thank you, Mr. Gray, for fighting for one that has the potential to do its job.