Say The Words, Joe
Trump promises a secure border, energy abundance, and insurrection. Will Biden tell voters he's already doing the first two?
Trump shared his three-part agenda on Monday night: a secure border, cheap gas, and insurrection.
#1: Trump is truly bringing to life the 2019 warning from David Frum: If Liberals Won't Enforce Borders, Fascists Will.
Democrats are - belatedly - addressing immigration, with Senator Chris Murphy as lead negotiator and offensive strategist (“I believe it is time for the Democratic Party to go on offense on immigration, which is something that we are generally allergic to.”), and Tom Suozzi as electoral case study (and co-chair of the “Democrats for Border Security” task force that launched yesterday).
#2: The same could be said for energy production: if Biden doesn’t tell people about his administration’s energy breakthroughs, then Trump will win votes on them.
What exactly is the president not sharing? Here’s the New York Times: “U.S. energy production, from wind and solar to oil and gas, has boomed under President Biden. The nation is closer than ever to a goal that presidents have pursued for decades: true energy independence.“
America has produced more crude oil during the Biden Administration than any country in history. More than Russia. More than Saudi Arabia.
But here’s the challenge, from the NYT:
The president isn’t bragging about record oil and gas production.
His reluctance highlights a political problem for him and other Democrats. Biden wants to phase out oil and gas eventually to fight global warming. But domestic oil and gas production is expanding on his watch. That brings political benefits: It helps reduce energy costs, and polls show Americans largely support it. But more drilling also means more pollution — and more fury from young progressive voters.
Worst of All Worlds
This is truly the worst of all worlds. The oil is already out of the ground! Activists and Democratic strategists have made a terrible detente - they have focused on words and messaging rather than policy reality. Carbon emissions in the atmosphere is not affected by whether Biden touts his actual policy record. The question is whether voters are aware of this reality, and willing to vote for the candidate who will strengthen domestic energy while reducing emissions.
It would seem to be bringing more political benefits if people actually, ya know, heard about it. Which they don’t - Blueprint polling shows that most voters don’t know that Biden supports increasing domestic energy production.
Which isn’t surprising, because Biden won’t actually talk about his energy achievements (despite us asking so nicely before then State of the Union).
Debate Comeback
Like many activist goals, Biden refusing to acknowledge reality cannot sustain contact with reality.
Picture a presidential debate stage later this year. Trump repeats what he said on Monday: “Drill Baby Drill! We’re going to drill more oil than ever before in America history!”
What is Joe Biden going to respond with if he is unable to tout his administration’s record oil production?
Will Biden whisper “Hey look we’re already drilling more than ever before - thirty percent more than Saudi Arabia! - but I can’t let the climate activists hear about our newfound energy independence”?
The Best of All Worlds
You don’t need to be Don Draper to sell Biden’s energy accomplishments. America is producing more energy than ever before while also reducing emissions.
Produce and Reduce: America is producing more energy, while reducing emissions - and reducing dependence on foreign oil, and reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, and producing technology to lead the world, and so on. That may result in a few more protestors, but the Biden campaign will need to get protest-management practice in before the DNC in Chicago. He’s already showing some fight, and it is helping him.
Trump is promising a secure border, energy abundance, and insurrection. Joe Biden is already working on the first two. If voters don’t believe it, Trump will get to do all three.