Bingo!

What polling highlights for Biden's State of the Union

Joe Biden is not just a kind, wise, well-meaning¹ older man. He’s been a great president, doing stuff voters like.

Bad news: voters hear a ton about unpopular stuff associated with Democrats, and little about the popular stuff. For tonight’s State of the Union, we created a Tic Tac Toe board highlighting nine popular Biden positions and accomplishments. Play along with us on Twitter or Threads as we see if Biden can win the game by saying the things that would win him the election:

Lauren covered this problem - “Quiet Popularism, Loud Extremism” - back in November.

Unfortunately, pundits continue focusing on the idea that Biden risks alienating progressives. The Wall Street Journal wrote, “Biden’s Support From Progressives at Risk Over Border Bill and Israel.” Politico chimed in, “Democrats risk a new rebellion as Biden embraces border deal,” and The Atlantic ran a piece called “Why These Progressives Stopped Helping Biden.” 

However, as we have noted before, Biden is losing support from independents and moderates, not from progressives, and he won in 2020 because of independents: 

In 2020, Biden made critical gains with independents and those who had voted third party in 2016. According to Pew Research, whereas independent voters broke for Donald Trump by just one point (43% to 42%) in 2016, they broke for Joe Biden by nine points (52% to 43%) in 2020, making the difference in key states.

The latest Blueprint polling, released just ahead of Biden’s State of the Union, offers some evidence that there is still ample room to Biden’s center and that few persuadable voters are worried that he is too moderate. The poll asks respondents what factors worry them with both Biden and Trump. Respondents were given a dozen possible concerns, such as “Biden would raise taxes on middle-class families,” “Biden would be too moderate,” and “Biden would be too old to do the job well.” For media tropes about Biden’s allegedly harmful centrism to prove correct, the data would show voters concerned that he is “too moderate.” 

Instead, only 32% of voters (and 27% of independents) fret that “Biden would be too moderate,” while 52% of voters (and 61% of independents) harbor fears that “Biden would be too liberal or progressive.” In fact, the concern that Biden would be “too moderate” was the lowest concern of any about Biden. The actual worries that voters voice are that Biden will fail to address inflation, hike middle-income taxes, fail to secure the border and increase the national debt. The chart below summarizes what voters generally and independent voters specifically expressed concern about. 

In fact, when we analyze key demographics, like young voters, non-college white voters and voters of color, we see little evidence that Biden is insufficiently progressive to mollify those groups. Among Black voters, concern that Biden would be too moderate (26%) is roughly equal to concern that he would be too liberal (23%). With young voters, whom the media endlessly portray as progressive stalwarts concerned about Biden’s pivot to the center, more are worried that Biden would be too liberal (44%) than too moderate (40%). 

For Trump, 22% of voters are plagued, for some reason, by chimerical dread that he would be too moderate (14% of independents), while 44% (39% of independents) worried he would be too conservative (these concerns ranked dead last and third to last for Trump, respectively). To sum up, voters are more worried that Biden would be too liberal than that Trump would be too conservative. 

The poll also blows up some other myths about the electorate. For instance, the concern that Biden would be too friendly to Israel ranked second lowest (38% of voters). The actual concerns voters have were Biden’s age, the national debt, inflation and illegal border crossings. 

For Trump, voters are concerned about his potentially criminal behavior and that he would look out for the wealthy rather than the middle class.

Concerns abound, but Biden has the record and positions to win. He should tell voters about them tonight.

1. We seem to underrate the “well-meaning” part of the Hur report, written by a Trump appointee, that made headlines and angered Biden. Given who Biden is competing against, the fact that a jury - and thus voters - would find him “well-meaning” is a significant advantage!