Forecast Calls for Blues in August

126 days from the Chicago DNC. We've got a full tank of violent anti-Biden cranks, half a pack of moderates. It's dark, and Dems are wearing rose-colored glasses. Hit it.

The 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago will be marked by significant political violence. This is not dull speculation. Vivid images of leftists clashing with police and putting Democrats - and Joe Biden - in the worst possible light is the goal outlined at a recent planning meeting covered by The Free Press:

Over a single day, the “March on DNC 2024” conference gathered 75 organizations to discuss how they plan to disrupt the convention. Speakers told the crowd how to flood the streets without getting arrested, how to spot members of the Secret Service, and how to say “Death to America” in Farsi. At one point, when news of Iran’s attack on Israel spread throughout the room, the crowd erupted in cheers.

Later that day, Jerry Boyle, an attorney and volunteer for the National Lawyers Guild, a nonprofit that says it acts “as the legal arm of social movements and the conscience of the legal profession,” gave a pep talk on how to “know your power” and overwhelm the police.

The organized plans for leftist violence at the most high-profile attempt to brand the Democratic Party going into November’s election are, um, not ideal for Joe Biden’s re-election.

Picture the 1968 DNC in Chicago. But instead of neutral coverage from Walter Cronkite on the 6pm evening news, it will be hundreds of short video clips hyper-targeted by Elon Musk to maximize outrage. Not great!

Who has rioted lately?

Ballots for the November election will be mailed to voters about six weeks after the conclusion of the DNC on August 22.

Recency bias is a real thing, as anyone with kids who think Steph Curry is better than Michael Jordan can tell you.

When ballots arrive, voters will be more than 1,300 days from watching live footage of the January 6th rioters but mere weeks from watching videos of leftist protestors clashing with police and interrupting Democratic politicians.

And voters - especially the low-information and cross-pressured voters who will make up their minds in October to decide elections - are particularly biased by recent events.

The Biden campaign has avoided college campuses and made late announcements on events to thwart protestors. They will have no such luxury in August.

KGB in CHI

We can sometimes be a bit tough on the elements of the progressive left whose action hurt Democratic chances of winning.

But, as one gets with the most hardcore of the extremists, the DNC protest organizers are a problem on a level beyond political strategy. These people are a real problem! As in “working on behalf of Putin” and “connected to terrorist groups”. Back to the DNC protest planning meeting again, via The Free Press:

“I’m not here to tell you what the law is,” (attorney) Boyle told the crowd. “I’m here to tell you what you can get away with.” 

The event attracted some unsavory characters. Four speakers have had their homes raided by the FBI for their alleged ties to terrorist groups, and one attendee, Jesse Nevel, was federally charged for “working on behalf of the Russian government.”

Now It’s Your Turn

You don’t need a PhD in Modern American History to know that riots at the DNC in Chicago have an iffy track record. There is even merch related to it: in 1996, when the DNC went back to Chicago for the first time since the 1968 riots, there were shirts reading “Chicago Police: We kicked your father’s ass. Now it’s your turn!”

The political violence and disruption are predictable, as is Trump’s demonstrated ability to amplify long-practice Republican practices at inflaming violence for electoral gain.

How predictable is the response from Biden and Democrats?

As we wrote in CNN last month,

These forces are not only sporadic volunteer activists but often professionals with a coherent strategy backed by megadonors and foundations. The explicit goal of the donor behind the group that “bird-dogged” Manchin, for example, is “not giving him any peace.”

It is not just the radicals who are at fault. They are being cheered on by people who should know better. You would think that other members of Congress would abhor the efforts of disruptive groups like the Manchin-harassing Climate Defiance. But Rep. Ro Khanna of California and “Squad” members including Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri participate in swanky fundraising events with ultra-wealthy Climate Defiance supporters like heiress Abigail Disney.

There is still time for other Democrats to push back. It may not save the Senate, but it can stem losses. The party’s leader, President Joe Biden, seems to be fearful of the activist left – so much so that his campaign is avoiding college campuses and talking about clearly popular things like the record energy production that polls show voters like but his administration intentionally downplays.

The time to push back is now. Democrats cannot cower to disruptive leftists.

But who will be pushing back?

Predictably Bonkers

Ahead of the 2022 election, we wrote a bunch about how the political marketplace is predictably bonkers. The focus was on how Democrats were conceding democracy in dozens of winnable center-right races and just by contesting more seats could win the House (spoiler: it could have).

This is in large part because “The Democrats” are not a coherently organized group. “The Democrats” are thousands of mini-campaigns and institutions. And in the aggregate, they’re highly inefficient - no more so than in pushing back against the excesses of disruptive leftists.

A presidential re-election campaign is the closest American political parties ever get to having a true top-down executive who can set strategy and priorities. Joe Biden is a good man who has been a good president. He has a very strong track record to run on. But, as Lauren noted in the Wall Street Journal last week, his team also seems legit scared of the leftists.

Centrist Insurgency

That is why interventions are needed. After the first WelcomePAC expenditure, the late, great New York Times reporter Blake Hounshell referred to our approach as a “Centrist Insurgency”.

As covered in Centrist School II, one lesson to learn from the far left is their insurgent approach. “Asymmetrical conflict by irregular forces using all available tactics”.

Insurgents require support of the local population to prevail. Is there support within the Democratic population for a centrist insurgency? It sure seems so.

Defeating authoritarianism requires partisan centrism - and an energetic variety.

It worked out in 1996.

As Jake and Elwood say in the Blues Brothers: