Sowing Victory
Early strategic investment in winnable House races plant seeds that blossom when election time comes
“Can Dems beat a hardline House conservative?” asks the headline of the insiders’ congressional newsletter this morning. A new poll shows Rep. Scott Perry, one of the most extreme MAGA members of Congress, trailing his Democratic challenger in Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district.
The poll’s findings are proof the Welcome strategy is working: PA-10 is home of our Republicans Against Perry campaign, featured on PBS NewsHour over the summer. In 2022, Perry won with 54%, but he now trails Janelle Stelson by nine points, 48% to 39%.
It looks like moderate magic, but the seeds of this miracle date back more than a year.
Most Vulnerable Extremist
More than a year ago, we named Scott Perry as uniquely vulnerable. He was an active participant in the insurrection. In texts released as part of the January 6th investigation, Perry shared YouTube videos claiming voting machines had been manipulated by satellite, and he attempted to convince Trump to fire acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen and replace him with a conspiracy theorist. A former Trump White House aide testified that Perry was “central” to planning the insurrection.
And it’s not just a Trump thing: Perry has been too extreme for the district on policy. As leader of the extremist House Freedom Caucus, Perry pushed the government to the brink of a shutdown, and he supported extreme anti-abortion laws.
Perry was one of only six House members to oppose requiring the documentation and preservation of evidence of Russian war crimes. Those who joined him represent districts that favor Republicans by 11, 14, 16, 19, and 22 points. But unlike these other MAGA extremists, Perry’s district is winnable.
As we wrote back in 2023, “Perry, however, is vulnerable. His Harrisburg-based district gave Trump just 51% of the vote in 2020. He is the archetype of an opponent that Democrats and their Never Trump allies must target in the 2024 elections.”
And that’s exactly what we did. The first poll of this district was released by Welcome a year ago:
Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is unpopular among constituents and susceptible to a Democratic upset next year, according to a group opposing him that has released a new poll of district voters.
“We scoured the country for the most vulnerable extremist and the unlucky winner is Scott Perry,” said WelcomePAC co-founder Liam Kerr in a statement in which he added that voters are “lukewarm on Perry and will swing hard against him once fully informed ...”
Voters are now informed. And MAGA extremists - and the House Speaker - are scrambling:
House GOP leaders are clearly worried about losing the seat. Speaker Mike Johnson will campaign for Perry on Friday in Mechanicsburg, Pa., and the House Freedom Caucus is mobilizing staff to canvass for their former leader up until Nov. 5. HFC aides are planning to knock on doors this weekend in Mechanicsburg, New Cumberland and Harrisburg.
It seems likely that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP super PAC that conservatives sharply criticized for the last few years, will have to consider putting money into Perry’s district.
Fellow Freedom Caucus Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are pushing their colleagues to contribute to the House Freedom Fund, which will then funnel money to Perry’s race, according to HFC insiders. Roy campaigned for Perry in Harrisburg last week.
And a new super PAC linked to a former executive director of the NRSC has also earmarked more than $2.3 million in TV ads to support Perry in the coming weeks, according to his campaign.
Reverse Coattails
This story is not just about the House. It can also help win the White House:
The poll also shows that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 46% to 41%. In 2020 Lee says Trump won the 10th District by 4% so either the district has changed or voter’s preferences have changed.
One thing that has changed is that voters are more tuned into Perry’s extremism. How does this help Kamala Harris? As we explained in Adam Frisch’s Reverse Coattails, a dynamic centrist running against an extremist can help candidates up the ballot:
A fall 2021 report by Run for Something, For Our Future, and BlueLabs confirmed the reverse coattails effect, when “down-ballot candidates can help push the top of the ticket across the finish line.” The report found that Democrats contesting state legislature seats down-ballot boosted Democrats in statewide races at the top of the ticket.
This reverse coattail effect may also be true for stronger competitors in US House districts, as evidenced by the 2022 Colorado Senate race.
In 7 of Colorado’s 8 U.S. Congressional districts, Bennet ran very close to Biden (overperforming by an average of 0.3 points). But in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional district, where Frisch was challenging Lauren Boebert, Bennet ran a full 3 points ahead of Biden — 10x his average in the rest of the state.
And Perry shows no signs of changing his ways to win the middle:
Yet the conservative firebrand tells us he has no plans to temper his views in an effort to appeal to moderate voters who could save him.
Protect Democracy - By Practicing It
The Washington Post is also out with a story on Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson today. And the headline captures both how we pick our races, and how dynamic centrists can win them:
We select vulnerable extremists because they undermine democracy AND they have other baggage. And candidates like Stelson can protect democracy by practicing it: meeting voters where they are and winning the middle to flip districts.
HARRISBURG, Pa. — As she stood with more than two dozen retired national security leaders behind her, Democratic hopeful Janelle Stelson might have been expected to focus on her opponent’s views on election denial and the 2021 attack on the Capitol.
The bipartisan group of former generals and ambassadors came to Pennsylvania on Monday because they view her opponent, Rep. Scott Perry, as a potential threat to democracy.
But instead of starting her remarks with an account of Perry’s role helping the Trump White House strategize before the Jan. 6, 2021, joint session, she began by highlighting his votes on bread-and-butter issues: a vote against legislation to help house homeless veterans, a vote against helping firefighters get better protective gear and vote against a bill to combat sex trafficking. Only then did she turn to the Capitol insurrection and national security.
Read the whole piece here on this trusted news anchor who was until recently a Republican. While race-raters claimed the race was “likely Republican” after being “Safe Republican”, Welcome saw an opportunity. We knew that this combination of GOP extremism and Democratic moderation would create the potential for an upset.
Stelson is focused on winning the middle to follow through on that promise:
But Stelson said she has gotten support from across the aisle, and plans to reach out to more Republicans and independents ....
“I’ve been the trusted, nonpartisan voice,” she said. “If I haven’t been sitting in your living room doing a story on you in all that time, I’ve been in your living room on your TV, chances are.”Even her ex-husband, whom she called a “hardcore Republican” donated to her campaign, she said.
“It’s hard to go up against an entrenched incumbent,” she said. “But again, having so many Republicans and independents reach out to me the way they have been over the past several months lets me know this is possible.”
Let’s keep the momentum going this year to sow more depolarization, giving us the opportunity to reap a harvest of victories next cycle.