The Bucks County Blues

Trump's approval in crucial Bucks county is tanking, but can Democrats turn that into victory in the House?

As Democrats debate shutdown strategy, one fact remains clear: the most effective way to stop Trump’s ever expanding overreach is to win back the House in next year’s midterms.

The Latest Polling

For nearly 20 years, Congressional Democrats had a higher job approval rating than their Republican colleagues. That changed earlier this year, when Republicans opened up a 13 point advantage. Even after the blowback from tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill, Democrats are still lagging behind the same Republicans who cheered on and passed those unpopular policies.

Source

The latest data from Beacon/Shaw research:¹

Congressional Republicans’ approval rating outperformed their Democratic counterparts for the second time this year, according to the latest Fox News national survey.

Thirty-three percent of registered voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing (66% disapprove), up 3 points from a near record-low 30% in March.

Independents Day

It’s always important to dive in on Independents, as my colleague Lauren Harper Pope noted, Democrats are still struggling with these key voters. Some commentators have argued that Democrats are performing poorly primarily because Democratic partisans are frustrated that the party isn’t responding to Trump aggressively enough. The polling data suggest a different story: Democrats are losing Independents as well.

In the Beacon/Shaw polling, 31% of Independents approve and 61% disapprove of Trump’s job as President. However, only 23% of Independents approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing and 76% disapprove.

This is not merely a base problem - Independents are more likely to approve of Trump’s job than congressional Democrats.

A Brief Detour Through History

Historically, the midterms of a President’s second term almost always lead to losses of seats in both the House and the Senate, a phenomenon that has come to be known as the “six year itch”. First term midterms typically punish Presidents and their party for overreaching their perceived “mandate” from two years prior (see: blue wave in 2018). Second term midterms, however, are typically even harsher and lead to divided government with the opposing party winning at least one of the chambers.

President Reagan faced a backlash election in 1986 that saw Democrats win 8 Senate seats to gain control of both chambers. The Bush-led Republicans ultimately faced electoral defeat in 2006, losing both the House and Senate after three straight winning cycles (Bush’s historic popularity following 9/11 allowed Republicans to defy the traditional first midterm curse and gain seats in both chambers in 2002). Obama saw a brutal shellacking in 2014, losing 9 Senate seats along with 13 House seats. President Clinton is the lone exception in the last 200 years who bucked the six year itch, when Democrats gained 5 House seats in the 1998 midterms.

Trump and W. Bush are unique in that they both enjoyed a governing trifecta to begin their second term. The trifecta ended poorly for Bush, as unpopular Social Security reform and a worsening Iraq War saw Democrats regain both chambers in convincing fashion. It is yet to be seen how it works out for Trump. History suggests that Trump and Congressional Republicans should experience a similar drag in 2026, however his rare non-consecutive second term² and the aforementioned dismal approval ratings for Congressional Democrats may complicate this trend.

Case Study: Bucks County

There is some good news though. Both national and battleground polls continue to show Trump’s approval ticking down. A recent poll of Bucks County, Pennsylvania, home of moderate Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, paints a bleak picture for the President:

A new private poll in one of the nation’s top bellwethers shows President Donald Trump’s popularity taking a nosedive and Democrats staking out a lead in local elections — a potential warning sign for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, view Trump unfavorably, compared to 42 percent who see him favorably, according to the survey by the Democratic firm Upswing Research & Strategy.

Bucks County is a so-called “bellwether” county. It’s suburban and tends to vote in line with the country. Trump won it by less than 300 votes in 2024 and Biden carried it in 2020. While Bucks went blue on the presidential level from 1992 - 2020, it also regularly sent moderate Republicans like Jim Greenwood, Mike Fitzpatrick and Brian Fitzpatrick to Congress to represent them during that same time period.

Republicans Can Moderate Too

One person this survey did not ask about was the incumbent member, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a consistent over-performer due to his moderate stances and longstanding ties to the district.

And therein lies the problem for Democrats. Midterms aren’t solely determined by the President’s approval rating. Individual incumbents distance themselves from him to overperform. This is the steeper challenger Democrats are facing: Trump’s falling approval numbers are not enough, they need to actively challenge and hold Republicans who can pose as moderates accountable for their enablement of Trump.

These Republicans are often adept at moderating on issues like healthcare. For instance, Rep. Fitzpatrick joined a push led by Rep. Jen Kiggans and Rep. Tom Suozzi to extend crucial Affordable Care Act subsidies. Other vulnerable Republicans like Rob Bresnahan (PA-08), Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06), Carlos Gimenez (FL-28), Jeff Hurd (CO-03), Tom Kean (NJ-07), Young Kim (CA-40), Mike Lawler (NY-17), Maria Salazar (FL-27), and David Valadao (CA-22) did as well.

To win, Democrats need to show voters that these Republicans are supporting and allowing Trump’s extreme cuts to Medicaid and focusing on tax cuts for billionaires. But much like swing district Republicans distance themselves from their party on healthcare, swing district Democrats must draw clear contrasts with their party where it has weak branding: crime, immigration and fiscal responsibility.

1. The poll was conducted for Fox News but Beacon/Shaw have a stellar reputation. The framing Fox News presents may be slanted, but the numbers are reliable.

2. In the 1894 midterm of his second non-consecutive term, President Grover Cleveland lost 127 House seats, the largest swing in the House’s history.