The Haley Stopgap
New polling shows how the USS Biden sprung a leak in the middle, and how attracting Haley voters can stabilize the ship
The 2024 election will come down to Nikki Haley voters. This is not just the familiar argument over whether Democrats should focus on persuading swing voters or turning out base voters during a competitive election season. Top-rated pollsters showed Haley beating Biden by big margins - 9 points (Siena/NYT), 13 points (CNN), etc.
These Haley-not-Trump voters make up more than enough voters to be the margin of victory in key swing states. Even with Haley out of the race, she continues to win roughly a quarter of Republican primary voters. And even in states where she performs less well, like her 19 percent in Tuesday’s Arizona primary, Haley voters far exceed the expected vote differential in November.
To win, Biden needs to consolidate these voters as part of a winning coalition. While media outlets have breathlessly covered voters who previously voted for Biden and are now voting for Trump, very few have dug into what these voters think.
Until now. The latest Blueprint polling reveals how to win Haley voters and who the Biden-to-Trump voters are, and how to keep them in the tent. Let’s dig in.
Blueprint collected 11 polls to gain a large enough sample to properly analyze voters who report supporting Biden in 2020 and are now contemplating voting for Trump. Here’s what they find:
Defectors are disproportionately young and moderate. Among voters who voted for Biden in 2020 and are planning to vote for Trump in 2024, 38% are ages 18 to 34, while just 13% of them are 65 years old and older. 53% of defectors identify as moderate and 33% as conservative. Only 14% identify as liberal.
Among the Black and Hispanic voters who voted for Biden in 2020 and are planning to vote for Trump in 2024, roughly half (49%),identify as moderate, 35% identify as conservative, and 14% identify as liberal. Among Black and Hispanic defectors under age 45, roughly 9 in 10 identify as as conservative (42%) or moderate, compared to just 11% who identify as liberal.
This shouldn’t be surprising, and it’s validated by a host of polling (we noted this trend before). While “uncommitted” voters mad about Gaza make up much of the news coverage, the reality is that the voters who are abandoning Biden are doing so because they think he’s too liberal, not too conservative. As we’ve noted, Black voters skew moderate, not liberal, so it should not be a surprise that the Black voters who identify as conservative or moderate are shifting away from the party perceived to be trending left.
It’s an important corrective for Biden to keep in mind as he charts his 2024 strategy. The Biden coalition is leaking from the middle, not from the left (a Google search reveals this boat analogy would be “port side”).
Similarly, the Blueprint polling points to the center as the best place to enhance the coalition. Blueprint finds that, “Haley voters break for Biden at 45% with just 24% for Trump, with 26% undecided.” Recall that there are 140,000 Haley voters in New Hampshire, 296,000 in Michigan, 77,000 in Georgia, 72,000 in Arizona and 249,000 in North Carolina. Small margins with these voters are enough to make the difference in an election as close as presidential elections in 2020, 2016, and 2000.
Analyzing where Haley voters place themselves on the ideological grid relative to Biden and Trump, the polls find,
Haley voters positioned themselves furthest from Biden on the border (35% “close to my views”), government spending (39%), and immigration (40%). Looking at the gap between the percentage who say Trump is close to their views and Biden is close to their views, the issues where Biden has the smallest advantage are the border (+6 Biden), government spending (+8 Biden), and oil and gas (+8 Biden), followed by climate (+12 Biden), crime (+12 Biden), immigration (+12 Biden), and inflation (+14 Biden).
Haley voters are furthest from Biden on the border, government spending and oil and gas. Huh. It’s time to “say the words, Joe” and run on his actual agenda on these issues. Where Biden has strength with Haley voters are the following issues:
On the flip side, Biden is viewed relatively favorably on Social Security and Medicare (54% “close to my views”), health care (52%) and democracy (52%). Analyzing the gap between Biden and Trump, the issues where Haley voters give Biden the greatest advantage are democracy (+28 Biden), abortion (+26 Biden), Social Security and Medicare (+26 Biden), health care (+25 Biden), and the war in Ukraine (+24 Biden).
Where do Haley voters see Biden as most to their left?
The issues where Haley voters are most likely to say Biden is more liberal than they are include government spending (55% say Biden is more liberal than they are), the border (55%), immigration (55%), the Israel-Hamas war (50%), inflation (49%), climate change (47%), and crime (47%).
Long story short, the way to stop defections and add new voters is the same: move to the center. A different Joe said the words this week, in the Washington Post. Biden has been a success, and he should be proud. If he wants four more years to be proud of, the Haley voters are telling him where to go.