Last week, the Welcome Democracy Institute released The Industrial Heartland Swing, a study of working-class swing voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa. The research included seven focus groups in Obama-to-Trump communities and a statewide survey of more than 1,000 self-identified independent voters in Michigan.
Three findings in particular stood out:
Affordability Is About A Cost Of Living Crisis That Is Getting Worse
Affordability has become one of the defining issues of this election cycle, but the term itself can be hard to pin down, and some commentators are criticizing the term as overly vague.
Voters in our focus groups talked about groceries, gas, utility bills, housing, property taxes, and wages that have not kept pace with the cost of everyday life. In the Michigan survey, 51 percent of independents said their household was falling behind financially, while just 6 percent said they were getting ahead.
These voters are not necessarily tracking monthly inflation reports or judging the economy by whether the rate of price increases has slowed. They are judging it by what comes out of their bank accounts every month and whether their paycheck stretches as far as it used to. Since our focus groups were conducted, things have only gotten worse for these voters. Diesel prices are reaching all time highs, which will eventually flow into food prices as harvest season enters full swing. Anything that is shipped on trucks will see price hikes, as the trucking industry struggles under diesel prices and labor shortages from Trump’s immigration enforcement.
That also helps explain why affordability remains so politically potent even when traditional economic indicators improve. For many of these voters, the question is not whether prices are rising more slowly. It is whether groceries, electricity, housing, and other necessities still feel too expensive. It’s important to keep in mind that roughly a third of voters are seniors on fixed incomes, who don’t see wages grow - they just see their costs increase. In voters’ own words:
Focus groups
“Our property taxes have a hundred percent doubled since 2021.”
White woman, Iowa“Life is tough. It’s expensive. I had to get a second job to make ends meet. I’ve been trying to find full-time work but you’re competing against AI bots.”
Hispanic woman, Pennsylvania“It was flat for a long time. It being a coal region it’s always been lower middle class. Now that lower middle class isn’t part of the middle, it’s just lower.”
White man, Pennsylvania
Michigan survey
“I’m just scraping by. Everything’s expensive, groceries, gas, DTE energy bill. And it’s because of corporate greed.”
White woman, 50–64, Metro Detroit (leans Democratic, voted Harris)“Affordability means being able to afford life and a way of living, and rent’s outrageous, groceries are outrageous, gas is outrageous. We don’t get paid enough to pay all these prices. Tariffs are crazy.”
White woman, 35–49, Lansing area (leans Democratic, voted Trump)“Affordability means I can pay for my food and groceries and medical bills and when I go in the grocery store I don’t have to buy the cheapest thing and I can still have a little bit money left over to have some fun. Lately it’s been tighter than that.”
White man, 65+, Metro Detroit (leans Republican, voted Trump)
Corruption Is About More Than Politicians Breaking the Law
Corruption was another theme that came up more broadly than expected, mirroring work from South Texas. Usually, when people talk about political corruption, they mean bribery, campaign finance scandals, or politicians abusing their office. That certainly came up in our groups, two of which took place in the area of the infamous “kids for cash” scandal, but there was something more broad in the sentiment voters were expressing. Voters frequently described both parties as too close to wealthy interests, corporations, donors, or insiders. In the Michigan survey, when respondents were asked who the Republican Party stands for, 41 percent gave some version of the rich, corporations, or the party itself. Democrats faced a similar criticism, with voters questioning whether the party was more focused on its own power than on people like them.
Data centers were one of the clearest examples. They came up without prompting in every state, with voters connecting them to electricity bills, water use, and the feeling that large companies can come into a community, get what they want, and leave everyone else to deal with the costs. One voter said he heard of an official doing a suspicious deal to sell land to a data center developer at an inflated price to get approval for a project. But in addition to data centers, voters raised teaching jobs being offered to the highest bidder, suspiciously timed stock trades and distaste over the Trump family’s crypto dealings.
For these voters, corruption isn’t just a revolving door of lobbyists, it is a way to express that the system works better for people with money and influence than it does for them.
Focus groups
“Millionaires and billionaires have bought a ton of our politicians, so that’s on both sides.”
White woman, Iowa“In Hazleton, we were supposed to have an amphitheater that was gonna bring more music guests and stuff to our community... And instead, they decided to go with the data center.”
White man, Pennsylvania“Our concern is also water, when they’re giving us coupons for free Brita filters.”
White woman, Iowa
Michigan survey
“I think the Republican party is out for itself to make itself money. They’re fighting for the rich man. I think the small guy is suffering.”
White man, 50–64, Southwest Michigan (leans Democratic, voted Trump)“The Democratic people claim to fight for the little guy, but they really don’t. They also fight for their big donors and the wealthy people supporting them.”
White man, 65+, Metro Detroit (leans Republican, voted Trump)“I can say for both parties, a lot of them support supporting the rich and supporting data centers that definitely and detrimentally affect water systems, affect air quality, and affect life and health.”
Black woman, 18–34, Metro Detroit (leans Democratic, not registered in 2024)
Disappointment With Trump Does Not Automatically Mean Support for Democrats
This was probably the most counterintuitive finding in the report, and Democrats should heed it as they look forward to 2028.
Most of the voters in the focus groups supported Trump in 2024. But when they were asked to grade his second term, the responses were mostly Cs, Ds, and Fs. They talked about prices that had not come down, tariffs, immigration enforcement they thought had gone too far, foreign policy, and a feeling that Trump was spending too much time looking out for wealthy or well-connected people.
It would be easy to look at that and assume these voters are moving back toward Democrats. That’s not necessarily the case, and we’ve seen that in other polling.
Many of the same voters were still deeply skeptical of the Democratic Party. They described it as unfocused, too caught up in cultural and ideological fights, and disconnected from the economic issues they deal with every day. Some could not really say what they thought the party stood for.
Focus groups
“This time around he’s all about his buddies. It seems like everything he’s doing other than no tax on tips and overtime, that’s what made me not give him an F. Everything he does is for his friends.”
White man, Iowa“They [Democrats] take social issues too far. To an extreme. They’re out of touch with people. They just do too much regulation.”
White man, Pennsylvania“My problem is I don’t even know what their agenda is. The extremists are the loudest ones. So that’s all you hear. I don’t even know what their agenda is.”
White man, Iowa
Michigan survey
“Presently there are two things that will make me not vote for a candidate. Thing one is them proclaiming to be a Democrat. Thing two is proclaiming to support Trump.”
White man, 50–64, Northern Michigan (leans neither, voted Trump)“Again, like the Republican Party, I feel that the Democratic Party stands for themselves and they fight for themselves. I don’t think any party really is for the person or people anymore.”
White woman, 35–49, Southwest Michigan (leans Democratic, voted Trump)“I have no idea what the Democratic Party stands for anymore. Before, it was pretty simple. Now, I have no idea.”
White man, 50–64, Metro Detroit (leans neither, did not vote in 2024)
Looking Ahead
That last finding may be the most important one for understanding what comes next. A vote against the party in power is not necessarily a vote of confidence in the other side, and that distinction will matter when people start interpreting the results of 2026. Democrats may benefit from the current volatility in the electorate this cycle, but looking ahead to 2028, they need to do the persuasion that will keep voters in the party.
These voters are unhappy with Republicans, but they are not necessarily realigning. They are still shopping, and Democrats need to offer them something worth buying.