The Way Out
Democrats can moderate or the Republican Party will be extreme. Democratic extremism doesn't work.
Near this time last year, Donald Trump outlined a three-part agenda: a secure border, cheap gas, and insurrection.
At the time, we noted that Democrats faced a clear choice: Biden could make energy cheap and secure the border OR Trump would do both plus free the January 6 insurrectionists. Yesterday, Trump pardoned the January 6th defendants, including those who violently assaulted the Capitol.
The Belated Pivot
Trump is truly bringing to life the 2019 warning from David Frum: If Liberals Won't Enforce Borders, Fascists Will.
In 2024, Democrats belatedly attempted to address immigration, with Senator Chris Murphy as lead negotiator and offensive strategist (“I believe it is time for the Democratic Party to go on offense on immigration, which is something that we are generally allergic to.”), and Tom Suozzi as electoral case study (and co-chair of the “Democrats for Border Security” task force). But as Lauren noted, when credibility is lost, it’s hard to get back.
The same could be said for energy production: Biden failed to share his administration’s significant energy achievements with voters, and now Trump will win votes and take victory laps on them.
What exactly is that Democrats didn’t share? Here’s the New York Times: “U.S. energy production, from wind and solar to oil and gas, has boomed under President Biden. The nation is closer than ever to a goal that presidents have pursued for decades: true energy independence.“
America produced more crude oil during the Biden Administration than any country in history. More than Russia. More than Saudi Arabia.
But here’s the challenge, from the NYT:
The president isn’t bragging about record oil and gas production.
His reluctance highlights a political problem for him and other Democrats. Biden wants to phase out oil and gas eventually to fight global warming. But domestic oil and gas production is expanding on his watch. That brings political benefits: It helps reduce energy costs, and polls show Americans largely support it. But more drilling also means more pollution — and more fury from young progressive voters.
Worst of All Worlds
This is truly the worst of all worlds. Under Biden, Democrats pursued mainstream policies on the border and energy, but refused to tell voters about those accomplishments.
Activists and Democratic strategists have made a terrible detente - they have focused on words and messaging rather than policy reality. Carbon emissions in the atmosphere are unaffected by whether Biden touts his actual policy record. The question is whether voters are aware of this reality, and willing to vote for the candidate who will strengthen domestic energy while reducing emissions.
It would seem to be bringing more political benefits if people actually, ya know, heard about it. Which they didn’t - Blueprint polling showed that most voters don’t know that Biden supports increasing domestic energy production.
Which isn’t surprising, because Biden didn’t actually talk about his energy achievements (despite us asking so nicely before then State of the Union).
The Best of All Worlds
We don’t need Don Draper to sell the Democratic Party’s brand. We need to listen to the winners, who take a moderate approach to policy and messaging.
Trump is promising a secure border, energy abundance, and insurrection. Democrats delivered the first two. But voters didn’t hear it and didn’t believe it, so Trump will get to do all three.
Democrats can moderate or the GOP will enact an extreme agenda. There is no path for Democratic extremism.