The Winner Effect

Momentum, volatility, and the strong wind blowing center-left

In a time of dumb debates, a harmless¹ one is whether or not “momentum” in team sports is real.

But extensive studies affirm that yes, momentum in sports is real. And it is called The Winner Effect:

“The physiological basis for (momentum) is what’s called the ‘winner effect,’” Paul Roebber, a UW-Milwaukee professor of mathematical sciences said. “Which is basically you build on success. So you have one win, then you build another win … there’s also a reduction in stress hormones when you have those wins. So there actually is a physiological reason for why this might exist.”

The center-left certainly built momentum this week.

We wrote on election afternoon how a John Avlon primary win represents a centrist insurgency worth $20 million. And he rolled to victory, despite roughly equal spending from his self-funding millionaire opponent with high name-ID from winning the nomination in 2020. Check out his election night victory speech calling in center-right voters, and contribute to him through the WelcomePAC Win The Middle slate here.

Debating Momentum

Can Joe Biden keep the momentum going tonight? We talked to The Boston Globe’s Joan Vennochi about the president’s recent moves to the center, and momentum for the center-left more broadly.

For Democrats, the political winds of 2024 continue to shift away from the far left.

On Tuesday night, Representative Jamaal Bowman of New York became the first member of the House’s ultraprogressive “Squad” to lose a primary reelection contest to a moderate Democrat. Based on recent polling, fellow Squad member Representative Cori Bush of Missouri could also be in primary trouble.

Against that backdrop comes news that Adam Kinzinger, the former Republican congressman who broke with his party and voted to impeach Donald Trump, is endorsing President Biden. The timely message: Biden is wisely reaching out to the new political center, represented by independents and anti-Trump Republicans. It’s not an easy reach. Biden is not only fighting the efforts by Trump and the MAGA movement to keep him tightly tethered to the Squad’s far left-leaning politics; he is also fighting efforts within his own party to keep him there.

Bowman and his supporters blamed money for his loss to George Latimer, a moderate Democrat, who benefitted from what The New York Times described as “record-shattering spending by political groups” that were angry about Bowman’s harsh criticism of Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas. However, as the Times also pointed out, Bowman had other baggage, including a guilty plea to a misdemeanor for pulling a House fire alarm last year — hardly an advertisement for judgment or maturity in an elected representative.

Read the full column here.

And check out our pre-election take on Bowman’s impending loss. A quick glance at the 538 polling tracker showed the world that Bowman was down 17 points in March - before any outside spending - and down 17 points three weeks ago.

He then lost by 17.2%².

So something else was going on besides a cash infusion. Here’s our take on what that was:

While progressives are already blaming AIPAC spending for Bowman’s likely loss, the reality is that outside spending can only defeat an incumbent who already suffers from a weak relationship with constituents. As Daniel Marans details extensively, Bowman’s real problem comes from the way he has alienated many past supporters with his extremist rhetoric. In his 2022 re-election, Bowman won only 54% of the vote, weakness that was masked by the fact that he faced two challengers who split the vote against him. 

Bowman was not effective at building relationships in his district, and he was too focused on playing to the online crowd from the Sunrise Movement, Democratic Socialists of America, Indivisible, Working Families Party, and Justice Democrats – also known collectively as “the groups.” 

A fateful example of how these organizations siren-songed Bowman to defeat is his vote against one of President Biden’s signature policy accomplishments: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), often referred to as “the bipartisan infrastructure law.” His vote against the bill featured heavily in the attack ads against him.

Marans notes Bowman called his opponent “a ‘retail politician’ as if it were a pejorative.” As we noted in NBC News and the New York Times last cycle, The Squad was backed by a “move fast and break things” operation that brought political merchandising to multi-million dollar scale online - about as big as their political operation.

Turns out the brick and mortar retail approach may be more sustainable.

They had momentum for a time, and it was real.

But momentum can change. And the momentum moving center-left can put Biden back in the White House.

PS During the debate tonight, every time Trump says something awful fight back against MAGA by chipping in to the WelcomePAC Win The Middle slate.

1. But very real!

2. As of last counting … unlike the City of Champions to the north, New York counts votes very slowly