When Trump Fails, But Dems Don’t Succeed
New polling from The Argument shows need for positive vision addressing affordability
Essayist Gore Vidal once quipped, “It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”
Looking at the exciting new polling from
at The Argument presents a revised version of Vidal’s quote for this political moment: it is not enough for Trump to fail, Democrats must succeed.Jain finds that Trump’s approval has continued slipping to -12, but Democrats lead by only one point in the generic ballot. According to RealClearPolitics, Democrats lead by 2.9 on the generic ballot. That’s good…until you look at that same stat in September 2017 when Democrats led by 9 points. In 2025, Democrats are hitting new 35-year lows in approval, which is making a 2018-style wave in 2026 less likely.
That 3-point lead on the generic ballot might have been enough six months ago, but with Republicans aggressively adding seats through gerrymandering states like Texas and Missouri — and others almost certainly to follow — it’s time for Democrats to (calmly) freak out. Republicans can likely add up to 12 more favorable seats in the House if they gerrymander all available districts if Democrats aren’t able to respond by redrawing their maps.
As my colleague
has written before, Democrats need an “Independents strategy.” Independents are still deeply skeptical of the party’s handling of crime, immigration, inflation, and yes, Joe Biden’s age. Democrats can’t simply coast on thermostatic backlash to Trump and his Administration’s overreach. Democrats must also affirmatively make the case to voters that they represent them and are best to lead the country.Democrats haven’t been able to capitalize on Trump’s mistakes because, unlike after 2017 when they were united behind a shared populist message, the Party has been distracted by intra-party ideological warfare and otherwise largely ineffective Trump resistance.
Trump’s OBBB has provided Democrats the perfect fodder for discussing Republicans’ lack of accountability to voters, but a perpetual misunderstanding of median voter apathy on Trump himself has resulted in talking points that still fall flat and don’t convey a compelling vision for the future.
And consider the recent DNC debacle where Democrats began with a land acknowledgement and were then chastised by an NGO leader to not be “tough on crime.”
When Third Way released a list of words Democrats should stop using (a list that Bernie-style leftists would have agreed with in 2017), they were immediately chastised by the online left — a demographic of Democrats that is so negatively polarized by Third Way they started defending the idea that Democrats should say words like “birthing people” and “progressive stack,” and even denied that Democrats ever used these words in the first place (they did).
After the 2017 election, Democrats were united behind the goal of defeating Republicans. These days, they’re more focused on identity politics, hating their neighbors, and factional infighting.
But there have been some positive signs, like Bernie Sanders endorsing Welcome-backed Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin's third congressional district. Sanders understands what both progressives and moderates understood in 2017 — the party must reduce its focus on new language and extreme views on immigration and crime, and instead focus on matters that are top-of-mind for the median voter.
Until Democrats regain trust among voters, discontent with Trump won’t translate into victory.