Why Democrats aren't breaking through with Independents
Voters won't leave Trump until they can trust the Democratic Party.
This morning, two pieces re-affirmed the need for Democrats to embrace an Independents strategy. First, Dave Weigel highlighted the dynamic we discussed last week: voters are mad at Trump, but they aren’t jumping ship to Democrats just yet:
When House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries got asked recently to react to a colleague who worried that the party was too focused on El Salvador, he pivoted: “Our reaction is that Donald Trump has the lowest public approval rating of any president in modern American history.”
One day later, after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer boasted that “Trump has the lowest 100-day approval rating since they started polling 80 years ago,” CNN’s Manu Raju turned the question back on him. Schumer’s own approval rating was 17% in CNN’s poll, much lower than Trump’s.
“Polls come and go,” said Schumer. “Our party is united.”
Polls nonetheless put Democrats in a notably weak position for a party aiming to win back Congress next year. In special elections held since Trump took office, Democrats have usually beat expectations, holding their Wisconsin Supreme Court majority and winning a slew of down-ballot races. But the party’s image has not recovered from 2024, and its marks in the spring of 2017 were higher than today.
This is true even in Democratic-sponsored polling:
In Navigator Research’s polling this year, favorable views of the Democratic Party started negative and stayed there — a 44-51 favorable/unfavorable rating after Trump’s first weeks, a 43-53 rating after 100 days. Over the same period, the GOP’s favorable/unfavorable rating dipped from 46-50 to 43-54. Voters grew more sour about Trump and Republicans.
It didn’t benefit Democrats at all. In NBC News polling, the party has fared even worse, with a record low 27% approval rating driven by frustration from their own base.
The reason? Democrats are still not providing a viable alternative. Slow Boring’s Matt Yglesias has some advice: practice moderation, instead of talking about it. He highlights two Blue Dog Welcome candidates:
And I find it striking and disturbing how few members of the Democratic Party actually do moderation instead of talking about it. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez actually articulated a moderate stance on student loan issues. She got yelled at by leftists (and I defended her), and because there was a controversy about this, her constituents heard about it. Because her position was popular in her district, she got a boost. But more than that, she earned a reputation as an independent-minded person who does what she thinks is right, whether or not it’s the party line.
Jared Golden recently voted for the SAVE Act requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and explained his reasons why. To me, that is moderation. But few other Democrats — including ones who say the party needs to be more moderate and the ones who say the party needs to be more populist — joined him. Of course, if you don’t think the SAVE Act is good, then that’s a good reason to vote against it. But if you want to embrace more mainstream cultural values, don’t complain that Democrats are too woke. Either say some non-woke stuff or cast some non-woke votes.
He shares a telling story about staffers (read my piece on them) that exemplifies the problem:
When I was a young journalist, it was pretty common to hear members of Congress or senior congressional staffers confess to secret progressive opinions like “gay marriage is fine” or “I wish we could get rid of all guns,” while taking public positions that cater to the media voter. These days, I more often hear the reverse — people complaining in private about everything from plastic straws to rolling back advanced math courses in public school without publicly affirming a more moderate stance. This doesn’t work politically, and just sort of dog whistling about a desire to become more moderate also doesn’t work. Politicians who want to see the party change need to actually be the change. They can count on sympathetic outsiders like me to support them, but they are genuinely the only ones who can do it.
Yglesias makes it clear and succinct how Democrats should evolve in this moment: “Either say some non-woke stuff or cast some non-woke votes.”
Democrats aren’t pulling voters away from Trump because we're failing to articulate a clearly defined, substantive moderate alternative to his extremism -- we're still just matching his extremism with our own extremism. Democrats are saying we should be more moderate, but they're not saying how, and Democrats who are embracing moderate positions are getting attacked by progressives who seem to adore being on the wrong side of public opinion.
Below are my thoughts on the latest data, published last week.
Independent voters might have mixed feelings about Trump’s first 100 days in office, but they’re still far from trusting Democrats.
Picture this: You’ve agreed to hop aboard a ship and set sail. It’s loud, a bit chaotic, and the captain has a habit of steering over rough waters. You’re getting wet and cold, and you’re worried the ship might eventually go down altogether, but there's no better ship to board nearby. Your only option is to stay put and hope the waves calm, praying the journey leads somewhere worthwhile.
If you managed to picture this, you can take a peek into the minds of many independent voters who voted to elect Donald Trump in 2024. While they may have mixed feelings about the direction the country’s heading – and may feel uncomfortable economically – there’s still a lot that must happen before they decide it’s time to jump ship.
This finding is reflected consistently in both qualitative and quantitative data from a range of polling outlets.
While Echelon and CBS show Trump’s approval ratings are tanking on the key issues, Democrats are still statistically tied with Republicans on the 2026 generic congressional ballot – a vast contrast to being up 7 points in April 2017 ahead of the 2018 midterms.
This is best shown in The New York Times’ recent focus group of 13 independents who voted for Trump. Some are confused. Some are frustrated. And some are still hopeful – but not a single person said they would change their vote.
Those who are uneasy about tariffs, economic pain, or Elon Musk share a sentiment of endurance, not regret.
Cheryl, a 66-year-old white ride-share driver in Missouri, says she feels “hopeless” about the future, complains “her rent went up $200” and that Elon Musk is allowed in the White House, but wouldn’t change her vote because “Kamala Harris… was a joke.”
Diana, a 39-year-old Latina finance manager in California, complains tariffs are “a shot in the foot”, but says “there's nothing that would have made [her] vote for Kamala Harris.”
Steven, a 57-year-old white business owner from Georgia, says that Trump is a “master manipulator” and “extreme narcissist,” but wouldn’t vote differently if he had the chance.
Jordan, a 38-year-old white homemaker from Utah says that she “may not like everything,” “didn’t vote for Elon Musk”, and “had [her] eyes open when [she] voted for Trump, that it was going to hurt,” but still thinks the country will be better off in the next six months.
John, a 29-year-old Black construction manager says, “I think [Trump’s] doing everything he’s promised,” and that he’s “happy about that.”
The anchor that tethers these swing voters to Trump isn’t necessarily enthusiasm – it's lack of a better option.
This is the central lesson for Democrats trying to win disaffected Trump voters. Frustration with our current President doesn’t mean voters support us.
Analyzing recent survey data suggesting some of Trump’s own voters have concerns about his governing, friend of the stack Reed Galen writes,
So yes, 1/4 of Trump’s voters express concern, but that doesn’t mean they’re going anywhere, nor would they go to someone else if given the chance today. These survey results are snapshots in time, yes, but Trump’s time in office will be measured in years of disruption and destruction and decades of repair and recovery.
To win then, Galen argues, Democrats need to do more than just attack Trump. They need to be a credible alternative:
We can get these voters back if we do the work and have a plan to show them 1) Republicans are not on their side and 2) there is an alternative, better option for them and their families. With voters like these, attacking Trump alone is more likely to drive them further into his arms than convincing them to peel away.
The YouGov/CBS polling is instructive: on the issue of tariffs, independent voters are closer to Democrats than Republicans. For instance, 72% of independents dislike the way Trump is approaching tariffs, closer to the 94% dislike from Democrats than the 24% dislike from Republicans. Sixty-eight percent of independents disapprove of the way Trump is handling inflation, closer to the 95% of Democrats than the 19% of Republicans. However, only 55% of independents disapprove of the way Trump is handling immigration, far lower than inflation. And half of independents support Trump’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants.
And while Trump is getting some low marks among independent voters, the recent Echelon Insights April omnibus poll finds that this is not yet translating into support for Democrats. In the Echelon polling, independents are still split on the generic ballot for 2026. Republicans have a 36% to 34% edge on inflation among independents, while Republicans retain a 50% to 23% edge on immigration.
A Fox News poll (as a reminder, Fox News uses a bipartisan team of pollsters) has Trump negative 10 on job approval. While Trump’s approval on the economy (-18), tariffs (-25) and inflation (-26) are abysmal, voters approve of his performance on border security (+15) and see him neutrally on immigration (-1).
Because even when the ship is rocky, the view from the ocean still looks worse.
Nate Silver recently did a thorough, honest analysis on Democrats’ refusal to listen to public opinion, noting:
"People don’t have time to sort through the particulars, so instead they default to their priors, e.g., that Republicans aren’t trustworthy on health care and Democrats aren’t trustworthy on immigration. Democrats are sometimes accused of being too “poll-driven.” But I think the obsession with “messaging” or the micromanagement of policy positions is the worst form of this — thinking that you can weave straw into political gold if you frame an issue in precisely the right way rather than looking at public opinion in broader strokes."
"If you poll a bunch of specifics about immigration and people side with Democrats, but then turn around and tell you they nevertheless trust Republicans more on the issue overall, perhaps the survey isn’t asking the right questions, or there’s something else it’s not capturing."
"Instead, Democrats suffer from a fallacy that I’ve called The Big Cope, which is their belief that if only the public knew all the facts, it would become incredibly hostile toward Trump."
“What sort of voter is going to turn against Trump because of Abrego Garcia when they didn’t because of January 6?”
Blue Rose Research put out polling this week on Trump’s first 100 days in office. In it, they found 47% of swing voters agree that Trump’s actions will make their lives worse, while 40% of swing voters say Trump’s actions will make their lives better.
For independent voters, until a better ship comes by – one that they can trust to head in the right direction and to a destination they believe in – they’ll just continue to hold on for dear life and ride it out, storms and all.