Win the Middle Update

Updates from the races Welcome has invested in this cycle: the Win the Middle slate.

Tuesday’s debate night solidified one thing: candidates at the top of the ticket are vying to Win the Middle. Our Welcome candidates running in some of the country’s most competitive House districts have been leading the Win the Middle charge this election cycle. Here’s an update on their races.

FL-13

Whitney Fox has the momentum. After earning our endorsement, and the endorsements of other majority makers, she’s now the subject of a New York Times profile of her race. Fox is one of the many down-ballot House Democrats benefitting from the change at the top of the ticket and the enthusiasm it has brought. The district seems red when looking at Presidential numbers, but beneath the surface, there are reasons to believe this is a great flip opportunity:

The Democratic field was so crowded in part because Ms. Luna is a Trump acolyte and Freedom Caucus member, which makes her vulnerable in a district that Mr. Trump lost to Mr. Biden in 2020, where around 29 percent of registered voters in Pinellas County aren’t affiliated with either major party and around 33 percent are Democrats. When only about 38 percent of voters are Republicans, an aggressively MAGA candidate risks losing the majority.

Fox will benefit from Florida’s abortion ballot initiative and Luna’s pro-life extremism. She’ll also benefit from her commitment to place-based politics. 

Casey Cane, a Palm Harbor fire commissioner who describes himself as a pro-life, lifelong Republican, told me that he’s been impressed by Ms. Fox’s outreach to community members regardless of their political background. “I have had productive discussions with Whitney on some key local issues like inflation, housing, the beach preservation issue on Clearwater Beach and south into the Treasure Island areas,” he said. While Mr. Cane isn’t ready to endorse anyone and disagrees with Ms. Fox about a lot of social issues, he has been disappointed with Ms. Luna’s lack of local presence. “I’d really like to get her perspective on some of this stuff and not so much just watch her in the limelight. I see her end up on the TV more often than maybe she’s in the community,” he said.

Fox is winning the middle and welcoming Republicans into the Democratic coalition:

“I consider Whitney to be someone who reaches across the aisle,” said John Alfe, a Republican business owner who plans to vote for Ms. Fox this fall. He volunteers for a local food pantry and told me food insecurity and border control are two of the most important issues for him. “I really like to vote on policy,” he said, and a candidate’s “zeal to make changes that would improve the quality of life for the people that they represent.”

This is exactly what we look for in candidates: place-based politics, the ability to win the middle, and a centrist profile that can contrast with an extreme Republican opponent.

So far, the model is working: a new poll has Whitney Fox up 4 points over Anna Paulina Luna, and even the Republicans’ internal polling only has Luna up by 5 points in a district Trump won by 6.8 points. Check out her ads highlighting abortion rights and Luna’s extremism on issues like IVF.  

Luna continues to face pressure on the issue of abortion: a recent Tampa Bay Times piece noted:

The pressure on Luna, who represents much of Pinellas County, is notable as she faces Democrat Whitney Fox in what is widely predicted to be one of Florida’s closest congressional races. Fox, the former communications director for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, has made abortion a centerpiece of her campaign. She’s a vocal supporter of Amendment 4.

In an Instagram post earlier this month, Fox criticized Luna for “hiding from voters on Amendment 4.”

When asked how she’d be voting on the amendment, Luna’s campaign did not respond. Fox News didn’t get a response from Luna’s team when it asked the same question last month.

The relative quiet from Luna is notable given how aggressively DeSantis has campaigned against the abortion amendment — and how outspoken Luna has been on other issues.

Fox recently challenged Luna to a debate, noting that Luna has not participated in or held any public forums since taking office.

As a reminder, you can support all of the Welcome candidates this cycle via our Win the Middle slate.

AK-AL

Rep. Mary Peltola is an electoral force. In Alaska’s August primary¹, she won with more than 50% of the vote, while Nick Begich led over Nancy Dahlstrom among Republicans. Dahlstrom dropped out after finishing third in the primary, leaving Nick Begich as the main Republican in the top 4 instant run-off for the general election. Begich received endorsements from members of Congress including Scott Perry, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Elise Stefanik – both of whom had endorsed Dahlstrom prior to her withdrawal. But Peltola is undeterred. Her latest ads focus on better pay for American soldiers and bridging the partisan divide. The NRCC launched their first ad in Alaska as well. The NRCC had previously promised Nancy Dahlstom $10 million but has since thrown its support behind Begich, and money has been pouring in for negative ads against Peltola. 

In stranger news, Peltola has one other Democrat on the ballot, Eric Hafner, who has never stepped foot in Alaska and is currently serving a sentence in federal prison and is not scheduled to be released until 2036. With a race as close as theirs, there is a concern about low information voters blindly choosing a Democrat, which would take away votes from Peltola — even small amounts on the margins can be very consequential in this race. To be noted, the Republican Party has been fighting to keep Hafner on the ballot.

CA-41

Will Rollins, a candidate Welcome has backed since 2021, was the subject of a recent Slate profile highlighting that, “Democrats are just fine running as cops.” The Slate piece highlights the way Rollins is winning the middle, and we appreciate the authors for giving Welcome candidates props for first adopting the “Team Normal” versus “weird” extremist dichotomy: 

Rollins has a whole list of policy prescriptions he sees as addressing the corruption of a GOP that, he says, has come a far way from the Republican Party of his grandparents, World War II veterans drawn to presidents like Eisenhower and Reagan. Voters like his grandparents were supportive of law and order and allergic to a government that interfered too deeply with their lives. Donald Trump and Ken Calvert have turned those values inside out, he says, evading accountability for their own lawbreaking, using their elected positions to enrich themselves, and becoming “obsessed with what’s happening in your kids’ locker room, with what’s happening in your bedroom, with what’s happening in your exam room.” (Notably, he’d referred to all this as “weird” culture-warring even before Tim Walz popularized the term.)

Rollins released a new ad titled “Public Service,” which touts, among other things, the fact that he worked for a Republican Governor. He also released an ad hitting Calvert on the border and for his use of budget earmarks. This comes after End Citizens United filed an ethics complaint against Calvert for his use of earmarks and failure to disclose investments – sound familiar? As the Slate piece notes, Calvert is one of many Republicans who have frequently skirted the law while running as part of the party of law enforcement. It simply isn’t working. 

“I hope Calvert makes this race about crime. He’s got a lot to answer for on his own,” Rollins told me at the diner. The line Rollins straddles here, at least rhetorically, is fascinating. He can sound downright progressive on the need to address root sources of crime instead of just building maximum-security prisons, to invest in public education and neighborhoods of all sizes, to attack white-collar criminals as aggressively as petty ones, and to not return to the overly punitive crackdowns of the war on drugs. At the same time, he talks up the line about how California’s Proposition 47—a 2014 ballot initiative that reclassified certain nonviolent felonies as misdemeanors—increased the rate of “smash-and-grabs” in the state, while defending the often-controversial Border Patrol and insisting that increased representation in law enforcement is what will heal rifts between marginalized communities and their cops. “You can’t have trust between the police and communities unless, first of all, law enforcement looks like the community that we are serving. And that includes not just race, gender, religion, political party, sexual orientation—it includes people from all different kinds of socioeconomic backgrounds too,” he told me. “The far left was trying to demean Harris’ record by calling her ‘Kamala the Cop.’ I think that it’s not going to be effective, and it hasn’t really stuck in the way that I think Trump has been hoping it would,” he said.

Rollins will have the money it takes to get his message out: his campaign’s reserved $2.4 million worth of broadcast TV in October. Rollins has also challenged Calvert to three debates ahead of the general election.

CO-03

Adam Frisch has challenged Republican Jeff Hurd to three debates. Americans for Prosperity spent $85k on a digital ad buy supporting Hurd.

Frisch’s latest ad includes a focus on fighting inflation. He also has an ad showing his moderate approach, touting his plans to protect water and abortion rights while also cutting spending and securing the border. 

NY-01

Democrat John Avlon was Rudy Guiliani’s speechwriter the day 9/11 happened (back when Guiliani was a more serious and moderate figure than he is today). Avlon recently remembered that day in an op-ed and shared a post on social media about the work he has done for 9/11 survivors. 

John Avlon has been calling out his opponent — “No Show Nick” LaLota — on social media.

ME-02

Another Win the Middle candidate who was recently profiled is Maine’s Rep. Jared Golden. The profile in The Atlantic reveals his efforts to create a pathway to down-ballot success by focusing on local, not national issues (“place-based politics”). 

Golden has also released an ad focused on banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks, an example of his progressive conservative approach that defies political labels. The local Bangor Daily News wrote an article discussing the impact of the presidential election on this race and how Golden seeks to localize the race.

Golden’s other ads include a veteran praising Golden for working with Trump to support Maine veterans and another touting his record as the only Democrat to vote against Joe Biden. 

PA-10

A new DCCC poll out has Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson up by a point initially and up four points after respondents hear bios and negatives. The poll’s findings would have moved PA-10 into the Lean Republican column by Split Ticket had they been included. Updated voter data in PA-10 shows Democrats making up 38.12% of registered voters, Republicans at 44.26% and independent voters at 13.92%.

Scott Perry has been floated as a potential interim leader of the Freedom Caucus following current chair Bob Good’s primary loss, offering a chance to highlight Perry’s extreme positions on shutting down the government to extract political concessions. 

Perry has also recently come under fire for stating in an email “I have long been a vocal critic of and vehemently opposed to the views and actions of the radical Left’s National Socialist Party (aka Nazis).”

Welcome released two ads in PA-10, one hitting Perry and one supporting Stelson. The DCCC released an ad attacking Perry as well.

Perry has continued to feud with the extremely popular Governor Shaprio, with Shapiro saying "he's full of --.” Stelson shared a tweet with the quote above. 

Inside Elections upgraded PA-10 on Thursday from Lean R to Tilt R.

WA-03

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has been campaigning all over the district, visiting all 7 counties in the district in the past month. The incumbent’s team launched a new TV ad in the district highlighting opponent Joe Kent’s dangerous views on abortion. The two will debate at least 5 times in October.

Together for Progress spent $100k on digital ads opposing Joe Kent. Kent secured the support of House Speaker Mike Johnson, who dropped in at a fundraiser to support Kent. Gluesenkamp Perez and Kent are scheduled for a live debate on Oct. 7. 

Welcome’s support for MGP, Golden, Peltola, and Fox are mentioned in coverage of the district. 

WI-03

Rebecca Cooke won her August primary and announced an impressive fundraising haul of more than $200k in the 24 hours after the election. Since winning the primary, support for Rebecca has been rolling in: she’s secured endorsements from AFL-CIO, EMILY’s List, Wisconsin Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, Wisconsin Laborers’ District Council — an affiliation of five Laborer local unions representing nearly 9,000 workers — and more.

Additionally, the DCCC added Rebecca’s race to the highly-coveted Red to Blue list.

Inside Elections upgraded WI-03 on Thursday from Likely R to Lean R.

You can watch Welcome’s ad running in-district in support of Rebecca Cooke.

As a reminder, you can support all of these Welcome candidates via our Win the Middle slate.

1. Alaska’s primary elections are top-four primaries, where the four top vote-getters advance to the general election in November.