Days after the last midterm, our ragtag band of centrist outsiders realized that the challengers we supported were two of the cycle’s three biggest overperformers in competitive red districts.
Adam Frisch was in a recount against Lauren Boebert in a Trump district that got $0.00 from the national party. Four years later, Adam - now on the Welcome team - was texting from a victory party in a Trump +10 district:
Four LONG years later - with many lessons learned, ten colleagues from around the country, and more than $25 million invested from more than 11,931 financial supporters - our two earliest endorsements of 2026 are again in the top-three of overperformance.
But this time, they are wins.
Welcome candidates rolled on Tuesday: 13 of 14 Win The Middle slate candidates won, all in Trump districts. Longtime readers saw core theories fulfilled: harnessing volatility, meeting voters where they are ideologically, embracing a Big Tent, and placing smart bets deep into red districts.
Attendees of WelcomeFest 2025 may recall Lakshya Jain giving a presentation focused on the stretch seats. A majority of districts that Lakshya highlighted 17 months ago flipped. Attendees in 2026 saw Bobby Pulido & Jamie Ager on the main stage - two of the three biggest overperformers in Trump districts. Never a bad time to re-watch our Battleground mini-docs on Jamie and Bobby.
This is a time to take The Long View, the aptly titled new newsletter on WelcomeStack from Ruy Teixeira and Michael Baharaeen, formerly of The Liberal Patriot. I’ll be joining Ruy & Michael on Substack Live at 4pm EST today to put electoral results in the context and discuss where we go from here. Join us on Substack or at WelcomeStack.org
Also check out our collaboration out yesterday with Third Way.
Big Tent + Strong Factions = Healthy Party
Progressives also won several swing districts, despite underperforming relative to the overall wave (see our memo from yesterday, with Third Way’s Moderate Data Hub, for more on how Center-Left Democrats Overperformed and Delivered the Majority).
The left will also likely win the narrative battle in the ensuing weeks, like they did after 2018.
Progressives are still far more organized than centrists, even combining us with the pragmatic progressives advocating for a big tent.
We need more people to join the team! Please consider becoming a paid subscriber to fuel this work, and elevate the voices, stories, and leaders who can strengthen a community that keeps on winning. You’ll get everything that Ruy Teixeira & Michael Baharaeen & guests put out on The Long View, with much more to come on the front page of the center-left.