You’re Going to Need A Bigger Tent

The math and method to welcoming Nikki Haley voters

The Republican presidential primary is over. The race for Nikki Haley voters is just beginning.

We write to you today from the Principles First Summit, a gathering of Never Trumper types - including former presidential candidate and Trump critic Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

Such principled conservatives cannot win in the Republican Party these days. But add them to the Democratic Party, and it’s lights out for Trump. They just need to be recruited.

Nikki Haley knows that math - she cannot win, but Trump sure can lose. That’s why she should stay in the race. Every day Trump’s U.N. Ambassador is skewering him is a better day than if a less credible (read: Democratic) messenger is singing the same song. Here’s the math and the method.

First, the math. We outlined the mathematical dilemma facing Normal-ish Republicans way back when the key marker of normalcy was being vaccinated against Covid-19.

To regularly win GOP nominations, Vaccinated Republicans must constitute 51 percent of primary voters.

But to regularly win general elections, even in “Safe Republican” seats … Vaccinated Republicans can make the difference by comprising just 7 percent of the electorate.

In other words, if Democrats can build a big enough tent to welcome these Vaccinated Republicans, then they can leverage Trump’s primary dominance against him. Because as the Vaccinated Republicans leave their party, the remnant becomes even more Trumpy—which should make the acceptance of the Vaccinated Republicans easier to swallow for the Democrats.

Now for the method. Yesterday, Donald Trump beat Nikki Haley in her home state and is almost certain to be the nominee, barring a legal surprise (which, with Trump, wouldn’t be too much of a surprise, and even in that event he’ll likely get the GOP nod/cultish genuflection). 

That means the United States is on the brink of a second Trump presidential term, which is likely to be even more disastrous than the first: Trump has spent the intervening four years creating plans¹ for a brutal deportation force, lining up a bench of even more obeisant policy people who can more effectively carry out his plans, and silencing the remaining intra-party opposition. 

So how do patriotic Americans ensure Trump no longer controls the most powerful military in the world? By turning Haley voters into Biden voters. According to the Iowa caucus polling, nearly half of Nikki Haley voters said they would vote for  Biden in the general election. That’s a big chunk of Republican primary voters! In New Hampshire and South Carolina, Haley won 4 in 10 voters.

The job for the next 9 months is to turn these voters into what Pete Buttigieg calls “future former Republicans.” As we wrote way back in The Bulwark, Mayor Pete knew the game was addition:

The heart of Buttigieg’s approach was that he preached the message that differences of opinion on one policy or another aren’t cause for a rupture. That the tone of politics need not always be aggressive. That people of different backgrounds can work together, rather than at odds with each other.

Also Buttigieg understood that while he had to build his political brand from scratch out of necessity, that empty white board also gave him an advantage. It allowed him to build a coalition based on addition, rather than subtraction. And that the very act of reaching out would not only bring new voters over but line supporters up behind him.

The Democratic victories in both 2020 and 2022 were driven by success among Independent and Center Right voters. By addition.

Let’s review the evidence. In 2020: 

As his supporters for the Democratic nomination had hoped, Joe Biden appealed to the center of the electorate across party lines. He did 10 points better than Hillary Clinton among Independents, and he doubled her showing among moderate and liberal Republicans.

Read that again. Biden doubled Clinton’s performance among moderate and liberal Republicans. Those are the Republicans who are supporting Nikki Haley, the Republicans who admire folks like GOP Governor Asa Hutchinson. And what about the 2022 results?

• Arizona: Mark Kelly won 55% of independents (who made up the largest share of the state’s electorate at ~40%)

• Georgia: Raphael Warnock won 53% of Independents

• New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan won 54% of Independents, in a state where they constitute plurality of voters in the state

• Pennsylvania: John Fetterman won 58% of Independents

What about Tom Suozzi’s recent win in NY-03? The high-quality Siena College poll of the district had Suozzi winning 14% of Republicans and crushing his opponent among moderates (58% to 32%). Suozzi also won 11% of conservatives, while holding 95% of liberals. 

The results and reality could not be clearer: to win, Democrats need to win moderates and Independents. Those are the voters Biden is struggling with, not liberals.

How about the massive overperformance in Kentucky in 2023? David Eichenbaum, Governor Andy Beshear’s media consultant, explains that their strategy was premised on winning moderate Republicans:

We don’t have to win most Republicans, but we have to win some Republicans, and that means we have to connect with them and tell these stories. Whether it's a Republican small businessman whose business is flourishing because of Andy Beshear, or because of Andy's policies, and because he's bringing jobs into the state and companies into the state. 

One Republican pollster estimated that nearly a quarter (23%) of Trump voters were voting for Beshear. 

The story is important. And Nikki Haley is out there telling it every day.

We’re going to need a bigger tent.

And that’s why it is worrisome when the DNC attacks Trump critics like Asa Hutchinson and the party obsesses about progressive activists (the smallest piece of the electoral pie). It’s worth recalling the message Biden ran on in 2020:

So it's with great honor and humility, I accept this nomination for president of the United States of America. But while I'll be a Democratic candidate, I will be an American president. I'll work hard for those who didn't support me, as hard for them as I did for those who did vote for me.

That's the job of a president, to represent all of us, not just our base or our party. This is not a partisan moment. This must be an American moment. It's a moment that calls for hope and light and love, hope for our future, light to see our way forward and love for one another. America isn't just a collection of clashing interests, of red states or blue states. We're so much bigger than that, we're so much better than that.

That is the message of the Democratic Party in 2024, rather than the trite, sarcastic one distributed by a former Warren staffer when Asa Hutchinson dropped out. If you supported Hutchinson, Haley, Christie, DeSantis or any of the Republicans who sought to give the country an alternative to Trump in 2024, our message to you is this: welcome into the Democratic Party. We’re not perfect, we have flaws, we don’t agree on everything. But we agree with you on this: another Trump term will be a disaster for this country. It’s time to build an America we can all unite behind together. An America that stands against Putin, not one that excuses him. An America that protects our national secrets to keep our men and women overseas safe, not one that leaves classified documents in the bathrooms of Mar-a-Lago. An America where the losers of a Presidential election concede gracefully, not foment an insurrection. 

Welcome. Let’s build a better America, for everyone. 

1. Fine, Trump isn’t the one creating plans - but the point is the plans are being made and they are scary!