The Electoral Pie

Ring in National Pizza Day by putting the slices of the electorate into perspective

Sometimes the back of the envelope calculation is more helpful than going deep into a spreadsheet.

And, just in time for National Pizza Day¹, a recent viral tweet gives the big-picture of the electorate:

As the Twitter user Blue Cheese points out, the two groups that we hear disproportionately in elite circles and social media are the left flanks of each block: the left-most Democrats, and the most-centrist Republicans. This may not exist on a clear line - some principled Never Trump Republicans hold what would traditionally be viewed as very conservative policy views, and some mainstream Liberal Democrats want to ban private health insurance and are ok being called socialists (but don’t celebrate terrorist attacks or throw soup at the Mona Lisa).

While Blue Cheese’s analysis isn’t meant to be precise, other efforts have shown similar results. For instance, Pew’s political typology study finds that the “progressive left” makes up only 6% of voters, and only 12% of those who are Democratic or lean Democratic. They find that roughly 12% of voters (and 18% of Republicans) fit into the “ambivalent right” category, which is defined by “conservative views about the size of government, the economic system and issues of race and gender” but a “distinct” set of views on Trump “while a majority voted for him in 2020, most say they would prefer he not continue to be a major political figure.”

Another 15% of voters (and 15% of Republicans and lean Republican voters) fall into the “Stressed Sideliners” category who are politically less engaged but split between the two parties (48% voted Trump, 49% voted for Biden).

It begs the question: why do we spend so much time thinking about progressive activists when the ambivalent right and stressed sideliners make up an electoral block 4.5x larger?

Kids pizza

Imagine one of those kids pizzas that is cut into sixteen slices.

Each slice represents about 6% of the electorate.

One slice is Progressive Activists.

One slice is true independents.

One slice is anti-Trump Republicans.

The other thirteen slices are split between MAGA (25%, or about 4 slices) and MAGA-Lite (15%, or about 2 slices) normal Liberal Democrats and Moderate Democrats (40%).

“Asymmetrical Polarization” is the fancy word for this. But lost amid that seems to be the relative size of the groups. 

The national pie

This analysis is validated by the latest Gallup data, which paints a concerning picture for the Democratic Party. Democratic identification, which has had a near consistent advantage over the Republican Party since 1990, is now tied with the GOP at just 27%,

When the independents are pushed to express a preference, Republicans lead for the first time since the 1990s.

Big Tent Party

The Gallup data shouldn’t surprise us - the Democratic Party has moved left, and fast. 

In some ways, 2009-2010 does not seem like that long ago. Taylor Swift was topping the charts, LeBron and Steph were highlighting NBA All-Star weekend. 

But back then Democrats had 60 Senate seats. Those Senators represented a range of now-shocking stances, and having those independent Democrats allowed Democrats to meaningfully contest races all over the country by appealing to independents.

As the president back then would say, there is not a Blue America and a Red America. Gallup data shows that Americans are in some ways fleeing those distinctions, despite the polarization headlines and increasingly tribal nature of our politics. As we covered recently, just 6 in 10 voters are firmly committed to either Biden or Trump.

Back to that kids pizza, with all the slices cut up smaller. There’s plenty of leftovers still in the box, while the kids have moved on to cake.

Who wants to fight for that last slice?

1. This Friday, February 9th is National Pizza Day