Polls in Context

There are no Men in Black mind-erasers, and no perfect polls. But the Houses still need defending.

Over fifteen days since the debate, Democrats have demonstrated concerns about Biden ranging from the visceral (“can’t unsee that”) to the raw politics (“the coverup is worse than the cringe”) to the polling.

Unless we call in Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones, there’s not much we can do about unseeing. And the Biden campaign response to the debate is also out of our control - and now mostly in the past.

Ah, but the polling. Has there ever been a bigger question for pollsters? A New York Times story from polling czar Nate Cohn framed the stakes appropriately:

The average of polls has shown Donald J. Trump with an almost uninterrupted lead for 10 months, and this undoubtedly shapes the calculation of Democrats in Washington. It’s hard to believe there would be any serious drive to replace Mr. Biden if the polls showed him clearly leading, as they did throughout the last election.

This puts a big responsibility on polls and pollsters. The fate of the president may not rest in their hands, but — at the very least — it will be influenced by their methods. In a sense, it is what polling is supposed to do in a democracy: give political actors insight into the will of the people, enabling decision makers to better respond to the demands of the electorate.

At the same time, it’s not obvious that polling is up to the challenge.

Polls are inherently imprecise measurements, subject to countless sources of uncertainty. While they continue to be the best way — or only way — to measure public opinion in a big, diverse country, polls have been wrong before, and they will be wrong again.

And at this stage, Mr. Biden’s chances increasingly rely on the possibility that the polls are simply “wrong.”

Can check out the full story here, which notes the historically accurate midterms for pollsters in contrast to the 2020 polling miss that underestimated Trump.

Polling Alternatives

There are significant limitations to polling a change atop the ticket - unprecedented in recent history - to an election that has been unprecedented for its awkward stability. A rematch between two of the most well-known figures in the world, decided by an unusually polarized electorate.

But does that mean polling is useless? No, especially when it will be part of the conversation anyway. That is why we acted on a major finding from political scientists from 2020: testing alternative Democratic candidates told us more about their Name ID than about their chances against Trump. Our test of potential alternative candidates for Democrats in 2024 is here, which attempts to account for this challenge, includes our calls for others to conduct additional research to further address these limitations of polling in this situation.

As Yogi Berra said, “It's tough to make predictions. Especially about the future.”

Press Conference Silver Linings

Polling immediate reactions to the news can also be helpful given the wild swings of the political narrative driven by people who are, shall we say, “non-representative of voters.”

As the Twitter-addicted political class seesaws back and forth on the rumor mill, real-time data on voter attitudes provides a critical check on narrative imbalances. That’s why we commissioned a survey yesterday, a day after President Biden’s much-anticipated NATO press conference.

The results demonstrate the stark - and often disappointing - reality of the fractured information ecosystem.

While nearly half (45%) of voters heard nothing about the press conference, those who did were far more likely to have heard of two verbal miscues than substance. Roughly six in ten voters who heard about it knew about the Zelensky/Putin miscue (61%) or “Vice President Trump” (58%) while fewer than four in ten had heard of other positive or negative reactions.

A half-century ago, many voters would have been sitting on the couch during the press conference awaiting Walter Cronkite’s balanced analysis. That was … not the case on Thursday night. Our memo on voter reactions to the press conference is here, and was featured in this story by Peter Hamby in Puck News.

Biden, or any another Democratic nominee, will have to win in the current reality where “viral clips win”.

Swing State Polling (Quality Cheese)

Zooming back out, let’s look at two other types of polls.

Before and after the debate, polls have consistently shown Biden behind Trump. Narrowly behind, but behind nonetheless.

This is true of both national polls and state-level polls. And it is true of online polls and other modes.

The most concerning from our perspective is a recent bipartisan poll from AARP in Wisconsin. This poll matters more than others because it uses a high-quality live caller method and the bipartisan pollster collaboration. It was done by a Democratic pollster that works with Biden and Republican pollster that works with Trump. The poll utilized landline, cell phones and text messages and matched to the voter file, a gold standard methodology. 

The poll finds Trump leading Biden 44% to 38% in the full ballot and 50% to 45% head to head. Worst of all, Trump is hitting the deadly 50% mark. The poll also tests the Senate race, where Senator Tammy Baldwin is leading Republican Eric Hovde 50% to 45%. The problem is not Democrats broadly, it is that Biden is failing to re-create the Big Tent majority coalition that put him into office in a state that Democrats must win.

The public is best served by more of these high-quality, state-level polls that test both possible tickets and the Senate races. The Presidential election is determined in the swing states, not nationally. 

Way to Win?

One interesting poll circulating on social media is from the progressive donor collaborative Way to Win, conducting by the innovative pollsters at Change Research. The poll surveyed 2,074 Democratic, Democratic-leaning Independent, and pure Independent likely voters in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI, from July 4-5.

Given the Far Left sponsor of the polling, it is unsurprising that the memo summarizing the poll closes with recommendations to pack the Supreme Court, “break with Biden on Israel,” and announce a “more generous student loan forgiveness program.”

The poll results themselves, however, point in a different direction. The progressively-infused bio and messaging they use does move Harris up overall, from 75% for Biden in this favorable demographic up to 79% for Harris after messaging. But the gains are almost entirely with voters who identify as progressive and liberal, with just a point of improvement among moderates. Purple box (added by us on top of the Way to Win deck) shows those results here:

Way to Win includes questions on Biden stepping down scenarios: how do voters feel about should Harris getting the nomination before the convention? And how do they feel about an open convention?

The topline support is higher for stepping aside for Harris (67% to 24%) than an open convention (62% to 27%). But that shifts as voters get more moderate: among Democratic leaning independents, stepping aside for Harris (62% in support, 30% opposed) is lower than the open convention (64% support, 25% opposed). Among pure independents, Harris (36% support, 42% opposed) is significantly lower than open convention (59% support, 20% opposed).

Similar to our earlier research, the Way to Win poll shows voters prioritize beating Trump.

Recap

There will be a lot of numbers flying around over the next four months, and a lot of pressure on pollsters. Amid that reality we have a few guiding principles:

1. Volatility is underrated in contemporary American politics

2. Variance is good when you are losing

3. We need to win the House, not just bank on the White House - and great candidates can win against extreme MAGA incumbents

The kicker to the New York Times story sums up the polling end game:

We won’t know until election night. We never do.

Until then, take the best information we have, invest in the Win The Middle slate, and go full speed ahead.