The Burn Rate Gap
Q1 FEC filings reveal which candidates wasting small donations and which are building machines to beat MAGA
In Q1 2026, Democratic House candidates who raised more than $500,000 pulled in roughly $140 million combined. Of that, $81.1 million went to candidates in Solid R or Solid D districts, where the outcome is not in doubt. Only $58.4 million went to candidates in Toss Up, Lean, or Likely seats, where House control will actually be decided.
That is the top-line problem. It gets worse when you look at what the money does once it arrives.
The Split
Democrats with serious Q1 hauls in non-competitive districts posted a median burn rate of 64%, meaning roughly two-thirds of every dollar raised went out the door in the same three months. In competitive districts, the median burn rate was 34%, about half that. The money raised for seats that matter is being saved for the general election. The money raised for seats that don’t matter is being spent on the next fundraising email.
Roughly $60 million walked out the door from Democratic campaigns in safe or hopeless districts in Q1. In competitive districts, that figure was under $24 million. Not all of that spending is digital fundraising overhead, but as Colorado Pols observed in February about CO-04’s candidates, there is little reason for a congressional campaign to be spending 70-80% of its revenue on anything else before the calendar even turns to an election year.
What the Pattern Looks Like
Four candidates illustrate different versions of the same dynamic.
Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-5, Solid D). Omar is a safe incumbent in a D+30 seat with no serious opposition. Omar raised $1.97 million in Q1 and spent $1.51 million of it in the same quarter. Her total-cycle burn rate is 77%. The money is not going to helping Democrats win the House, it’s going to the operation that produced the receipts.
Eileen Laubacher (CO-4, Solid R). Laubacher retired Rear Admiral challenging Lauren Boebert in a district Trump carried by 18 points. Raised $2.13 million in Q1 with a 74% burn. Her total-cycle burn is the lowest of this group at 64%, because she has had enough time and volume to carve out a $3.1 million war chest. She has raised $8.58 million so far in a district no Democrat has won since 2008. We know Lauren Boebert well: we almost beat her. But setting small donor money on fire isn’t the way.
Shawn Harris (GA-14, Solid R). Harris is a retired Army brigadier general who lost to Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2024 and lost the April 7 special election runoff to Clay Fuller by 14 points in a district Trump carried by 37. He raised $2.87 million in Q1 and spent $2.91 million, a 102% burn rate. Across his entire campaign history he has raised $7.16 million and spent $6.92 million, leaving just $243,000 on hand heading into the May 19 primary for the full two-year term. That’s a lifetime burn rate of 97% on a race he has now lost twice.
Saikat Chakrabarti (CA-11, Solid D). Chakrabarti is a former AOC chief of staff and Stripe engineer running for the open seat vacated by Nancy Pelosi. He reported $3.41 million in Q1 receipts, of which $3.35 million is a loan from himself. Spent $3.32 million in Q1, a 97% burn and closed with $209,000 on hand. The “average donation of $27” figure his campaign emphasizes is real. It is also less than 1% of what he has spent.
What It Looks Like When It Works
The contrast to Democratic candidates who are winning the middle in tough races is instructive. Five candidates Welcome has backed in actually competitive districts are preserving money for their tough election:
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3, Toss Up): $1.31M raised, 21% burn, $3.46M on hand
Rebecca Cooke (WI-3, Toss Up): $2.43M raised, 23% burn, $4.42M on hand
Janelle Stelson (PA-10, Toss Up): $2.17M raised, 24% burn, $3.17M on hand
Christina Bohannan (IA-1, Toss Up): $2.09M raised, 19% burn, $4.01M on hand
Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3, Toss Up): $1.69M raised, 21% burn, $2.19M on hand
These are the campaigns that will determine whether the House flips. They are banking 75 to 80 cents of every donor dollar for the general election. Their burn rates are running at roughly one-third of what Omar or Laubacher are posting, with war chests ten to twenty times larger than what Harris or Chakrabarti have left.
The Takeaway
We wrote in December that the first priority for Democratic donors in 2026 should be beating Meta before beating MAGA. The Q1 numbers suggest most donors have not gotten the memo. The small-dollar digital fundraising infrastructure is now efficient enough that a candidate can raise seven figures a quarter on a seat she cannot win, spend most of it on the firms that raised it, and report the gross number as proof of “grassroots momentum.”
The Congressional Competition Index tracks 113 seats that will decide control of the House. Most of them are not the ones producing the viral fundraising totals. A donor giving $25 to Shawn Harris after his Q1 report is funding the email that asked for the $25, nothing more. A donor giving $25 to Welcome’s Win The Middle slate is funding a Toss Up race where the money will actually be spent beating Republicans.