Episode Three of The Depolarizers features guests Patrick Ruffini and Ruy Teixeira.
Ruffini is a Republican pollster, author of Party of the People, and one of the country’s leading experts on political targeting, technology, and demography. Ruffini worked on Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign and has been a leader in the Republican Party’s shift to digital.
Teixeira is a name you’ve probably heard mentioned here on WelcomeStack, as he leads popular centrist publication
. Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a political scientist who focuses on demographic political trends. He’s co-author of Where Have All the Democrats Gone?, which explores how Democrats are risking losses among key historical constituencies by catering too much to college-educated white voters.Demographics Aren’t Destiny
Our conversation begins with a discussion about the concept that “demography is destiny” and why the “rising American electorate” thesis never came to be. The thesis, based on President Obama’s successful election in 2008 and re-election in 2012, was that as Black, Latino and Asian American voters made up an increasingly large share of the electorate, Democrats would grow in strength and numbers. The “emerging Democratic majority” was a play on Kevin Phillips’s claim of an “emerging Republican majority” - neither vision ended up being correct.
Teixeira and Ruffini reflect on why demography did not become destiny. Teixeira explains that the "demography is destiny" theory failed to materialize as predicted due to a critical oversight in its logic. While it correctly assumed that the increasing share of Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters would benefit Democrats, it didn't account for the possibility of declining Democratic support within these groups. This is exactly what happened, particularly among Hispanic voters. Many conservative and moderate non-white voters, especially in the working class, began voting more in line with their ideological preferences rather than their ethnic identity. This shift was driven by factors such as dissatisfaction with Democrats' perceived lack of fiscal prudence, the party's leftward turn on cultural issues, and the decreasing effectiveness of identity politics. Ironically, as the Democratic Party embraced identity politics more strongly, its intended beneficiaries became less responsive to this approach.
Ruffini argues that the "demographics is destiny" thesis is being challenged by several interconnected factors. He points out that while racial depolarization has occurred, ideological and educational polarization has increased, leading voters of all races to align more with their positions on issues rather than their racial identity. Ruffini highlights the historical context of Black voters' loyalty to the Democratic Party since 1964, but notes this trend is now unwinding. He characterizes Black voters as pragmatic, focusing on economic issues rather than identity politics. Ruffini sees Donald Trump as a unique catalyst in this shift, appealing to working-class voters across racial lines with his populist, anti-establishment message. He argues that Democratic messaging emphasizing Trump's perceived racism has been ineffective in maintaining minority support. Ruffini also points to a general distrust in traditional politics among working-class voters, including Black and Latino voters, which aligns with Trump's outsider image. Overall, Ruffini suggests that the demographic destiny thesis is oversimplified, failing to account for the complex interplay of ideological, economic, and political factors influencing voting patterns across racial and ethnic lines.
Donald Trump and Racial Realignment
The 2016 election of Donald Trump marked a significant shift in American political alignments, particularly in terms of racial and class polarization. As discussed by Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini and political scientist Ruy Teixeira, the Trump era has seen a notable decline in racial polarization, coupled with an increase in education and class-based polarization. As previous guest Matt Yglesias notes, using high quality Catalist data,
Trump did meaningfully better with Black and Hispanic voters in 2020 than he did in 2016 or than Romney did in 2012, and Biden compensated for that by doing better with white voters — especially with white college graduates.
The result is lower racial polarization. The gap between white Democratic vote share and Black Democratic vote share declined from 55 points in 2012 to 46 points in 2020. The gap between white and Latino Democratic vote share dropped from 28 points in 2012 to 19 points in 2020.
One of the most striking developments has been the erosion of the Democratic Party's historically strong support among minority voters, especially working-class Hispanic and Black voters, though Harris has shored up support. As Ruffini notes, Trump's populist messaging and anti-establishment stance have resonated with segments of these communities in ways previous Republican candidates failed to achieve. This challenges long-held assumptions about demographic destiny favoring Democrats as the country becomes more diverse.
Teixeira points out that many non-white voters, particularly working-class minorities, are more ideologically moderate or conservative than Democratic elites assume. He argues that the Democratic Party's leftward shift on cultural issues and embrace of "woke" politics has alienated some of these voters. Additionally, as minority communities become more integrated and economically diverse, the power of identity politics appears to be waning, especially among younger generations.
Trump's brash, populist style and "anti-politician" image have appealed to working-class voters across racial lines. His willingness to challenge political correctness and critique globalization resonates with those who feel the political establishment has failed them. As Ruffini observes, Trump's deliberate outreach to minority communities, even if not always substantive, sends a signal that he values their support in a way previous Republican candidates did not. He highlights things like Trump attending UFC fights and holding rallies in Detroit, Philadelphia and the South Bronx that might appeal to young men of color.
Generational Divides
The conversation also touches on the generational divide within minority communities. Younger Black and Hispanic voters, in particular, show less party loyalty than their elders, and Ruffini relies on the work of Chryl Laird and Ismail White. They argue that political norms in Black communities are enforced through social pressure, contributing to consistent voting patterns. The idea is called “linked fate,” that Black voters act collectively as a unit to vote for the Democratic Party to drive political power. This was enabled by tightly linked Black neighborhoods and social institutions. Part of Black identity was voting Democratic, as President Biden famously and inartfully expressed in his “you ain’t Black” comment.
As trends such as increased racial integration, changing social networks, and a weakening of institutions like the Black church, the ties to the Democratic Party have weakened. Ruffini points specifically to Black and Latino voters who are moving to places in the sunbelt and suburbs and losing their traditional Democratic affiliation.
Ruffini makes the case that moderate Black voters provide a powerful guardrail on ideological polarization in the Democratic Party that the Republican Party lacks. Because many moderate and even conservative Black voters still identify strongly with the Democratic Party and vote in primaries for candidates like Joe Biden, they depolarize our politics. He worries that as these voters leave, the Democratic Party will be more driven by responding to high ideology educated white voters who show up for primaries.
Kitchen Table Issues and Place Based Politics Beat Abstract Appeal to Democracy
Both Ruffini and Teixeira emphasize the importance of economic messaging and "kitchen table" issues in appealing to working-class voters of all races. They suggest that Democrats may find more success by focusing on concrete economic policies rather than abstract appeals to identity or Democratic values. Ruffini and Teixeira both express the view that DC consultants focus too much on things like January 6th, which are not key voting issues for working-class people.
Ruffini and Teixeira argue for breaking out of polarized elite bubbles and exposing oneself to diverse viewpoints. Teixeira recommends reading thoughtful analysis from the opposite side of the political spectrum. Ruffini recommends paying attention to focus groups and the perspectives of less politically engaged "normie" voters to understand the nuanced views that often get lost in partisan narratives.
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Note: This episode was recorded prior to “the debate” and Kamala Harris’ subsequent promotion to Democratic presidential nominee. Also, apologies that my desk light is visible in the video!
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