Pivoting To Win on CNN
Calm Freak Out: the path to protecting democracy runs through the center
Our most recent piece on CNN outlined our election year mantra of “calmly freaking out.” Back in November, we outlined the myths and facts that define the reality of the 2024 president election.
Since the New York Times broke the dam a few weeks ago, several pollsters have produced polling suggesting that Biden is trailing Trump. Social media has tried to reckon with this new reality, frequently spreading erroneous information. We are going to break through three key narratives so that we can all freak out collectively, calmly and productively.
There are three myths that abounded among Democrats deluded by hope at the time (which we refuted with data):
Obama was losing his own re-election in 2012 (he led Romney the whole time)
Biden’s weakness was due to progressive frustration on issues like Gaza (Biden defectors are disproportionaly moderates)
Base mobilization is the only path forward (Biden should focus on persuading swing voters)
In CNN earlier this month, we updated this perspective on how to calmly acknowledge the reality of polling while productively taking action.
The biggest obstacle to President Joe Biden’s reelection is not that polls show sharp declines in support among important Democratic demographic groups from 2020 to today. It’s denying this reality.
The good news for Biden is that Trump’s lead is small, often within the margin of error, in the northern swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan that along with bluer states get him on the doorstep of the 270 electoral votes required to win. The better news is that the remedy for overcoming this persistent deficit matches the ailment: Appeal to moderates.
We must first acknowledge the polls are not ideal before focusing on ways to improve Biden’s standing. Our diagnosis has been that President Biden should embrace the center on domestic energy and immigration and work to reduce inflation. The solution is not, as some have done, to deny the reality that Biden is trailing in the polls and make excuses. Polling has been decently accurate over the last several elections and every poll shows the same thing: Biden is losing the moderate and independent voters that elected him President.
While many pundits have blamed Biden’s weakness on Gaza and the youth vote, the reality is young voters are moderate as are the Black and Hispanic voters Biden is losing, as Lauren has written.
A Helpful Pivot To The Center
There has been good news in the few weeks since we wrote the CNN piece. President Biden is moving forward with an immigration plan that will reduce pressures on the border and has strong support across the political spectrum (as on most issues, the views of Hispanic voters mirror Americans overall). Equally good, the Biden administration has been utilizing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize the price of oil and strengthen the hand of the U.S. against countries like Saudi Arabia. The result: gas prices are falling across the country.
This culminated in the recent inflation print showing headline inflation increased by .01% and core inflation increased at a mere .16% (core removes volatile prices like energy). Given that rising prices are the biggest electoral weakness for Biden, this news is unambiguously good and creates the possibility that the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates before the election, which will lower the costs of mortgages and help small businesses.
Even better, the Biden campaign hired Austin Weatherford, chief of staff to Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger as “Republican Engagement Director” to flip Haley voters. This is exactly the type of investment in reducing toxic polarization that we have prioritized this cycle, as seen recently on PBS NewsHour. We have previously broken down polling showing that Haley voters can be a stopgap to keep the anti-authoritarian majority together.
Win The Middle
This is the path to a Biden victory in 2024. Fix the border, embrace American energy and innovation, bring down prices by putting the country’s finances in order. We can’t just hope everyone sees Biden as the decent man and effective leader that we see. We must protect democracy by practicing it - and that means reaching out to those in the middle, even when we may disagree with them.
“Hopium” may feel good. But as Biden noted last week during a commencement address, “faith without works is dead.” Democrats, and the country, should urge Biden to regain his faith in polling and his own ideological compass, and return to the path through the political center that won him the White House.
Biden can follow the path of our Win The Middle slate of pragmatic Democrats fighting in tough districts, like the Pennsylvanians fighting extremist Scott Perry in support of Janelle Stelson, and like Coloradan Adam Frisch, who chased Lauren Boebert out of her district. Support them here, and widen the Democratic path through the middle to victory.