Team Normal's Good Week

Ukraine aid from the middle-out; Young voters are normal (off-campus); Pennsylvania shows enduring Never Trump power

Last week was a good one for Team Normal. From the polls (young voters are normal!), to election results in Pennsylvania (Haley voters still flexing), to progressives backing off unpopular proposals, to a functioning Congress (!!) many of our favorite themes were out in full force. Lot’s of good stuff going on - let’s dig in:

Ukraine aid from the middle out

The anti-Putin majority won the day, powered by the most centrist members of both parties overriding holdouts on both the far right and the far left - just as Rep. Jared Golden predicted. In February, we sounded a cautiously optimistic note:

Congress is only mostly dead. Despite a short list of able leaders in the GOP, there is a long list of bipartisan accomplishments during the Biden era (as Joe Manchin’s prayer card will show you).

The reason for optimism? Golden’s bipartisan bill. As the Blue Dog co-chair noted on CBS at the time, “The most important thing to remember here is that the votes are there to support Ukraine … We need to find a way to get a deal that gets us to 218. I think a deal like that has to grow out of the middle, and is unlikely to begin with a one-party solution.”

Middle-out was the only path. And it is a proven path:

Such cross-partisan arrangements have become somewhat common in state legislatures from Ohio to Alaska to Texas, as we explored in Laboratories of Centrism. Our engagement with leaders in those states shows a path forward that takes trust-building and negotiation seriously. Golden’s approach shows both – he is offering to save the Speaker if he supports Ukraine and keeps the government open.

The New York Times broke down the vote by faction:

You’ll notice the classic framing here: there are “Progressive Democrats” and “Hard-right Republicans” … and then the majority of Congress is just listed as “Other”.

That’s our big-picture problem, and opportunity. Our foundational issue is that we have well-defined extreme factions, but lack defined factions in the political center. And it is only partisan centrists who can defeat authoritarianism. The aforementioned Golden - and his Blue Dogs - are trying to change that, as the effective outliers we profiled last month in

Matthew Yglesias

’ Slow Boring.

Bonus rec: watch this heartwarming airport welcome home from the Ukrainian community for Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. The Blue Dog co-chair was one of the authors of the “middle out” bill template eventually advanced by Speaker-in-Name-Only Mike Johnson.

The Progressive Paradox

While the Far Left continues to use unpopular slogans, the official Congressional Progressive Caucus is toning down the rhetoric in its formal set of policy goals ahead of the 2024 election.

But, as Lauren broke down in this online-only piece, The Progressive Paradox is as gnarly as ever: if voter turnout is based on promising infeasible proposals, where do you draw the line? Read the full thing here.

Young voters are … normal?

Lauren also broke down The Chart That Made Us Double-Take, showing young voters are concerned about the price of groceries and energy bills, not student debt and Gaza.

This data is from the prominent Harvard Youth Poll released last week, but with echoes to last year’s Young Voters Are More Moderate Than You Think. As

Noahpinion

noted, “the biggest problem with the Democratic Party is that it gets its information about the wants and needs of demographic groups … by talking to activists who claim to represent those “communities”, but which don’t really represent them”.

Ushering the Democratic professional class back into “Team Normal,” is imperative if we want to run and win as Democrats in 2024 and beyond. 

Haley’s Keystone Chops

Pennsylvania Republicans went to the polls on Tuesday, and one in six voted for Nikki Haley. And we mean legitimate, card-carrying Republicans: Pennsylvania has closed primaries, so these anti-Trump voters were still certified GOP members (although they may be “Banned. Permanently” from MAGA).

Crucially, according to analysis by pollster Matthew McDermott, Haley – as a zombie candidate – is performing strongly in the key suburban bellwether counties: Montgomery (25%), Delaware (24%), Chester (24%), Lancaster (20%) and Bucks (19%). Trump’s continued weakness in the suburbs could signal a further shift in November. These counties proved crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory. 

By way of comparison, in 2016, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, the only two competitive Republicans left in the race at that point, pinned last-gasp hopes on the Keystone State, hyping new field offices and campaigning there in the primary’s waning days. They won 22 percent and 19 percent, respectively, while still actively campaigning – not having dropped out a month-and-half earlier, as Haley did. Instead of campaigning, Haley spent the days before the primary welcoming her husband home from his year-long deployment. 

Scott Perry’s Worst Nightmare

There were a disproportionate amount of Haley voters in the 10th Congressional District, where our Republicans Against Perry campaign has provided a warm embrace for those escaping to Team Normal. As seen in The Washington Post on the eve of the primary:

The Democratic nominee, he said, will have to “connect a bunch of dots that this candidate had a role, and that Jan. 6 was a real threat and going forward that Trump and Perry would continue to put democracy at risk.”

Democrats are getting some help on that front from anti-Trump Republicans. A new group, Republicans Against Perry, placed a billboard this month on a major interstate through the district. The ad shows photos of Mastriano and Perry, both with red Xs over their faces.

Craig Snyder, who served as chief of staff to then-Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, started the group and said he has received thousands of inquiries from people who want to be involved.

After spending less than $200,000 on ads in 2022 in PA-10, Democrats spent three times that much in the primary alone - and the race rating has changed again.

Much more to come in this race, where we previously profiled Putin’s Man in Pennsylvania.

Let’s make it another good week for Team Normal.